Potential Effects of Contaminants on Fraser River Sockeye Salmon

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Chapter 7 Uncertainty and Data Gap Analysis7.0 IntroductionThere are a number <strong>of</strong> sources <strong>of</strong> uncertainty in assessments <strong>of</strong> risk to sockeye salmonassociated with exposure to contaminants in the Fraser River Basin, includinguncertainties in the conceptual model (i.e., pathway analysis), uncertainties in the effectsassessment, and uncertainties in the exposure assessment. As each <strong>of</strong> these sources <strong>of</strong>uncertainty can influence the estimations <strong>of</strong> risk, it is important to describe and, whenpossible, quantify the magnitude and direction <strong>of</strong> such uncertainties. The purpose <strong>of</strong> thissection is to evaluate the uncertainty in a manner that facilitates the attribution <strong>of</strong> the level<strong>of</strong> confidence that can be placed in the assessments conducted using the various lines <strong>of</strong>evidence. Accordingly, the uncertainties associated with the assessment <strong>of</strong> risks to FraserRiver sockeye salmon are described in the following sections. Key data gaps are alsoidentified.7.1 Uncertainties Associated with the Conceptual ModelThe conceptual model (i.e., including the pathways analysis) is intended to define thelinkages between stressors, potential exposure, and predicted effects on ecologicalreceptors. As such, the conceptual model provides the scientific basis for selectingassessment and measurement endpoints to support the risk assessment process. <strong>Potential</strong>uncertainties arise from lack <strong>of</strong> knowledge regarding ecosystem functions; failure toadequately address spatial and temporal variability in the evaluations <strong>of</strong> sources, fate, andeffects; omission <strong>of</strong> stressors; and overlooking secondary effects (USEPA 1998). Thetypes <strong>of</strong> uncertainties that are associated with the conceptual model used to linkcontaminant sources to effects on Fraser River sockeye salmon include those associatedwith the identification <strong>of</strong> chemicals <strong>of</strong> potential concern, environmental fate and transport<strong>of</strong> these chemicals, and exposure pathways.Identification <strong>of</strong> chemicals <strong>of</strong> potential concern represents an important source <strong>of</strong>uncertainty in the conceptual model for the Fraser River Basin. In this study, an Inventory<strong>of</strong> Aquatic <strong>Contaminants</strong> was developed using information on the sources and releases <strong>of</strong>chemicals <strong>of</strong> potential concern based on the land-uses which comprise the Fraser RiverBasin. Information on land and water uses in the Fraser River Basin was acquired frommany sources and verified using the results <strong>of</strong> an independent analysis conducted by Nelitzet al. (2010). As such, it is likely that the majority <strong>of</strong> potential sources <strong>of</strong> chemicals <strong>of</strong>121
potential concern were documented and that many <strong>of</strong> the chemicals that may have beenreleased from these sources were identified. Nevertheless, it is possible that additionalsources contributed one or more chemicals <strong>of</strong> potential concern to aquatic habitats withinthe study area. In particular, there is substantial uncertainty regarding the types andquantities <strong>of</strong> herbicides, fungicides, and insecticides that are currently being used withinthe watershed. In addition, limitations on the available source and monitoring data made itdifficult to identify all <strong>of</strong> the pharmaceuticals and personal care products, endocrinedisrupting compounds, and contaminants <strong>of</strong> emerging concern that could have beenreleased within the study area. Nevertheless, the potential for missing possible risk driversis likely low due to the breadth <strong>of</strong> the analysis that was conducted to develop theInventory <strong>of</strong> Aquatic <strong>Contaminants</strong>.Evaluation <strong>of</strong> the fate and transport <strong>of</strong> chemicals <strong>of</strong> potential concern also represents asource <strong>of</strong> uncertainty in the conceptual model. While a great deal is known about theenvironmental fate <strong>of</strong> many contaminants, such information is generally lacking for certainendocrine disrupting compounds and contaminants <strong>of</strong> emerging concern. As a result,partitioning and persistence <strong>of</strong> these contaminants is difficult to predict.Identification <strong>of</strong> exposure pathways also represents a potential source <strong>of</strong> uncertainty in theconceptual model. In this assessment, it was assumed that surface water and sediments(and associated pore water) represent the most important pathways for exposing sockeyesalmon to chemicals <strong>of</strong> potential concern. However, the importance <strong>of</strong> the sediment-basedpathway is uncertain for most stocks. Hence, evaluation <strong>of</strong> risks to the sockeye salmonassociated with exposure to sediments may not be directly relevant for many sockeyesalmon stocks.7.2 Uncertainties Associated with the <strong>Effects</strong> AssessmentThe effects assessment is intended to describe the effects that are caused by stressors, linkthem to the assessment endpoints, and evaluate how effects change with fluctuations in thelevels (i.e., concentrations) <strong>of</strong> the various stressors. There are several sources <strong>of</strong>uncertainty in the assessment <strong>of</strong> effects on aquatic receptors, including measurementerrors, extrapolation errors, and data gaps.In this investigation, the effects on sockeye salmon associated with exposure to chemicals<strong>of</strong> potential concern were evaluated using several types <strong>of</strong> information, including toxicitythresholds for surface water, toxicity thresholds for sediment chemistry, and toxicity122
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February 2011technical report 2<str
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thresholds), which represent lowest
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Table of ContentsE
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5.5 Summary of the
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List of TablesTabl
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Table 4.17Table 4.18Table 4.19Table
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Table 4.47Table 4.48Table 4.49Table
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Table 6.4Table 8.1Compounds for Nat
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Figure 3.17 Map of
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Figure 5.20 Late Stuart Sockeye Sal
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List of Acronyms2,
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AcknowledgementsThe authors would l
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To assist it in fulfilling this man
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• Development of
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Chapter 2 Geographic and Temporal S
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life history of th
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• Pitt River Area of</str
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Chapter 3 Inventory of</str
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and Paper Mills - Canfor Pulp Limit
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3.1.1.2 Sawmills, Plywood Mills and
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(ENKON Environmental Ltd. 2001). Co
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Effluent toxicity was also included
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2011 for more information on the lo
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facilities identified in Table 3.11
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Inc.), poultry processing facilitie
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• Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon
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3.1.1.11 Municipal Wastewater Treat
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• Personal care products (fragran
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with oxytetracycline, ormetoprim, a
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In summary, the contaminants that c
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insecticides, such as phorate, terb
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3.1.2.4 Runoff fro
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the substances most amenable to lon
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• Plastic-related compounds (i.e.
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were used in the effects and exposu
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warrants further assessment to dete
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• Data collected for migration co
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Hazard quotients were calculated fo
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Many other substances have the pote
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Chapter 5 Evaluation of</st
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For surface water and sediment, the
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3. For hardness-dependent water qua
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• 2,3,7,8-TCDD toxic equivalents
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concern by area of
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0.05 mg/L; Glew and Hames 1971). As
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least time rearing in freshwater ha
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Page 99 and 100: Interest and in the South Thompson
Page 101 and 102: • Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxi
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Page 111 and 112: salinity tolerance were significant
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Page 117 and 118: Spitsbergen et al. (1991) reported
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Page 121 and 122: observed in saltwater gobies (Chasm
Page 123 and 124: (See Chapters 4 and 5 for further i
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Page 127 and 128: point and non-point source discharg
Page 129 and 130: Location of NatalS
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Page 139 and 140: chemicals of poten
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Page 161 and 162: 8.4 Preliminary Evaluation
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Page 167 and 168: 8.9 RecommendationsThis evaluation
Page 169 and 170: Chapter 9 References CitedAdams, R.
Page 171 and 172: Braune, B., D. Muir, B. DeMarch, M.
Page 173 and 174: EIP Associates. 1997. Polychlorinat
Page 175 and 176: Gallaugher, P. and L. Wood (Eds). P
Page 177 and 178: Hinch, S.G. and E.G. Martins. 2011.
Page 179 and 180: Kemble, N.E., D.K. Hardesty, C.G. I
Page 181 and 182: MacLatchy, D., L. Peters, J. Nickle
Page 183 and 184: Milston, R.H., M.S. Fitzpatrick, A.
Page 185 and 186: Peterman, R.M., D. Marmorek, B. Bec
Page 187 and 188: Smith, D.B., R.A. Zielinski, H.E. T
Page 189 and 190: USACE (U.S. Army Corps of</
Page 191 and 192: Walker, M.K., J.M. Spitsbergen, J.R
Page 193 and 194: Table 2.1. Overview of</str
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Table 2.4. Sampling sites for river
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Table 3.1. Listing of</stro
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Table 3.2. Chemicals of</st
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Table 3.8. Major pipelines transpor
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Table 3.10. Locations of</s
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Table 3.11. Listing of</str
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Table 3.16. List of</strong
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Table 3.17. List of</strong
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Table 3.18. Location of</st
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Table 3.20. Summary of</str
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Table 3.23. Estimated annual contam
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Table 3.28. Inventory of</s
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Table 4.1. Selected toxicity screen
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Table 4.2. Selected toxicity screen
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Table 4.3. Summary of</stro
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Table 4.19. Evaluation of</
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Table 4.32. Frequency of</s
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Table 4.53. Identification
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Table 5.1. Selected toxicity refere
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Table 5.2. Selected toxicity refere
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Table 5.3. Exposure point concentra
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Table 5.9. Hazard quotients <strong
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Table 5.11. Hazard quotients <stron
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Table 5.19. Hazard quotients <stron
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Table 5.23. Mean concentrations <st
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Table 6.2. Effects
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Table 6.3. Field studies of
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Table 6.4. Compounds for National r
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Table 8.1. Inventory of</st
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Figures
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Figure 5.1. Water Quality Index sco
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Figure 5.3. Fraser River Sockeye Sa
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Figure 5.5. Pitt Sockeye Salmon Pro
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Figure 5.7. Weaver Sockeye Salmon P
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Figure 5.9. Cultus Sockeye Salmon P
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Figure 5.11. Portage Sockeye Salmon
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Figure 5.13. Fennell Sockeye Salmon
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Figure 5.15. Late Shuswap Sockeye S
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Figure 5.17. Chilko Sockeye Salmon
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Figure 5.19. Early Stuart Sockeye S
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Figure 5.21. Stellako Sockeye Salmo
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Figure 5.23. Bowron Sockeye Salmon
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Appendices
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SW4 Deliverables4.1 The Contractor
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obtained on one species, sometimes
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• For substances for which the se
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WeaknessesThere is a lot of
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Pg 110 Ln 4189 - now called Listene
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the potential effects of</s
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A-14
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4. Fish processing plants are fewer
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Appendix 3. Environmental Data Sour
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4. Keyword searches for water quali
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A3.5 Contaminant Spill ReportsData
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River Pulp, Kamloops Cellulose Fibr
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Table A3.1. Water quality stations
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Table A3.1. Water quality stations
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Appendix 4. Data Treatment and Meth
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when multiple samples were reported
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$ Early rearing of
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i) The number of t
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In addition, some sockeye salmon (e
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• Selecting probable effect conce
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deBruyn, A.M., H. deBruyn, M.G. Iko
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Appendix 5. Data description and so
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Potential Effects of Contaminants on Fraser River Sockeye Salmon

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