Archie to SAM: A Short Operational History of Ground-Based Air ...

BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE IN THE 1990S
warhead. THAAD uses radar early in the engagement and then
an infrared sensor and computer aboard the missile for interception.
22 Estimated costs range from $10-$15 billion, with an
IOC in 2007. 23
THAAD began development in 1988 and accelerated with an
award to Lockheed-Martin in September 1992 (fig. 97). The effort
has been difficult with repeated test failures. Even the two
(of 16 attempts) successes in 1984 and 1991 were disputed by
critics who claimed they were rigged. 24 After six failed interceptions
between 1995 and 1999, THAAD achieved its first
interception in June 1999 when it hit a modified Minuteman
missile 50 miles high and with a (combined) closing speed of
15,000 fps. On the next test in August 1999, THAAD scored
another intercept. 25
Less than three weeks after the second success, the Department
of Defense (DOD) announced that the weapon would enter
engineering and manufacturing development (EMD) without
further testing. This changed the earlier requirement that a
positive EMD decision would hinge on three successful intercepts.
A few days later, the top DOD tester, Philip Coyle, the
director of Operational Testing and Evaluation, stated that
these successes were “not operationally realistic” and called
for further testing. Coyle based his statement on the facts that
the missile used was not the one that would be fielded, the
targets were employed over a shorter range than the system
might face, and test conditions were contrived. Coyle doubts
the system can be deployed before 2010. 26
Navy Systems
The push for a nautical BMD had two roots. First, the Navy
required protection of its assets from ballistic missiles. Second,
ship-based BMDs would permit shifting of scarce resources
and eliminate the problem of host-country permission. Such
mobility would represent a show of force and give the United
States a political/diplomatic advantage.
The Navy developed two programs: the lower-tier Navy areawide
system and the upper-tier Navy theaterwide (NTW) system,
both based on the standard missile. The short-range BMD
244