Archie to SAM: A Short Operational History of Ground-Based Air ...

BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE IN THE 1990S
aboard 22 Aegis ships in less than five years, for an initial cost
of $3 billion. However, a Navy estimate for a 12-ship system was
$15 billion, while later estimates for such a system were between
$16 billion and $19 billion. A sea-based NMD would violate
the ABM treaty. 31
The attractiveness of the Navy system was evident in 1999.
In September, the Japanese agreed to conduct joint research
with the United States for the NTW system. The two partners
intend to jointly deploy a Block II Standard, with an undetermined
IOC. The next month, naval representatives from the
United States, Australia, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands
met to investigate a future cooperative naval effort. The Standard
missile figured prominently in these talks. 32
To jump a bit ahead of the chronology, the election of
George W. Bush to the presidency in 2000 renewed interest in
the Navy BMD programs. Bush, Senate Majority leader Trent
Lott, Secretary of State Colin Powell, and former secretary of
state Henry Kissinger all called for the deployment of a seabased
system. 33
A New Threat
One reason for this increased activity was the recognition of
an increased threat. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union
and the overwhelming military victory in the Gulf War in the
early 1990s, Americans relaxed, expected a peace dividend,
and believed they were secure. They also began to cut the military.
The politicians were also lulled by a 1995 national intelligence
estimate (NIE) and the intelligence community’s March
1998 annual report that held that it would take 15 years for a
country without a ballistic missile infrastructure to deploy an
ICBM. This would give the United States ample warning before
such a deployment. 34 Critics noted that this estimate ignored
the existing Russian and Chinese ICBMs, turned a blind eye
to the vulnerability of Alaska and Hawaii, and disregarded
missile and missile technology transfer.
This complacent view was jarred by events in the summer of
1998. First, a congressionally mandated committee chaired by
former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld concluded that
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