Archie to SAM: A Short Operational History of Ground-Based Air ...

BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE IN THE 1990S
elections. The fate of the system may well depend on which political
party controls the executive and legislative branches.
The second set of events was technological—successful missile
tests. As one reporter opened his piece on the July 2001 test,
saying, “The brilliant flash in the sky above the Pacific signified
not just a hit by the Pentagon’s prototype missile interceptor
but an opening shot in President Bush’s long political, diplomatic,
and technical battle over a national missile defense system.”
80 Avoiding a simple decoy, the interception demonstrated
that the system could work. For its part, the military was subdued
and modest in its reaction, noting that the full results of
the tests would not be known for two months and that this
was just the first step on a long journey. Critics noted that the
test vehicle would differ in both hardware and capability from
the deployed system and that even with the successful interception,
a key component failed. 81 The next test (December
2001) was also successful against a warhead obscured by a
single balloon decoy and pieces of debris. A third consecutive
success in March 2002 was more impressive: the interceptor
missile picked the warhead instead of the three decoys. 82
The third set of events was diplomatic. President Bush announced
in December 2001 that the United States was withdrawing
from the ABM treaty. Despite the dire warnings of
BMD critics, relations with Russia did not spin out of control.
In fact, Bush was able to fulfill his campaign promise of reducing
the numbers of nuclear warheads. When the Soviet Union
collapsed in 1991, each side had about 11,000 warheads. The
START II agreement (1993), signed but not ratified, called for
a reduction of 3,000 to 3,500. Nevertheless, by 2002, each
side had reduced its nuclear arsenal to approximately 6,000
warheads. With lessened tensions, further reductions were
possible and pursued. The United States was willing to accept
a figure of 2,000 to 2,500 warheads, while the Russians, severely
strapped for funds, sought even deeper cuts to 1,500 or less.
In May 2002, American and Russian leaders signed an agreement
to reduce nuclear warheads to 1,700 to 2,200 by 2012.
The Russians accepted higher numbers than they desired but
did get a concession in a legally binding document. In addition,
they got a role in NATO. The warming relations between
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