Archie to SAM: A Short Operational History of Ground-Based Air ...

SUMMARY, TRENDS, AND CONCLUSIONS
forecasting, it is probably a safe bet to generally expect more
of the same, along with some unpleasant surprises. We can expect
to see more capable air defense systems fielded in the future.
The capabilities of SAMs on the drawing boards indicate
that they will become harder to jam, more difficult to evade, and
more effective against many more attackers. The key to advancements
in air defense appears to be in the area of electronics.
Certainly, stealth technology has broken the impact of
radar on air defense, at least for the moment. Clearly, the defenders
will seek means to counter this new development.
Surely, the devices will become more complex as they become
more capable. Sensors will improve, and the almost total reliance
on radar will end. Different types of sensors will be tied
together and give more data more quickly to the air defenders.
All of this will be much more expensive in terms of dollars and
trained manpower.
A second expectation is that effective air defense weapons will
spread in numbers and geography. We can expect most countries
to equip their forces with more and better missiles, and
sometimes we will even see our own weapons used against us.
In addition, man-portable SAMs will give antiaircraft protection
to guerrilla groups and become a potent weapon for terrorists.
Future military conflicts may be decided not so much on the
combat performance of weapons—that is, their probability of kill,
time of flight, lethal radius, launch envelope, ECM, and electronic
counter-countermeasures (ECCM)—but on other factors.
These will include nontechnical factors such as numbers of
weapons in the field and in the supply depots; maintainability
and reliability; cost; and human factors, including training,
adaptability, and motivation. Most of all, the result will depend
on how well the military puts together this complicated array.
What are the big payoff areas in the future? Improved ECM
will be useful but increasingly difficult because of effective
ECCM and the introduction of multisensors on a large scale.
Most of all, the Airmen need capable and versatile standoff
weapons: the attacker must get away from the defenders. These
weapons offer the promise of increased accuracy (thereby requiring
fewer sorties) and increased reach (permitting less risk
to the Airmen). The air defenders also need more ECM and
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