Potentiale zur energetischen Nutzung von Biomasse in der ... - EPFL

Anhang 33
Bundesamt für Energie BFE
Projection of future production cost of FT liquid biofuels
Description of the base cases
Considering that Fischer-Tropsch technology using biomass as a feedstock is not yet commercially
available and requires further developments as regards bio-syngas conditioning for FT synthesis, it can
be expected that the first industrial scale FT installation could be put in operation in Switzerland not
earlier than 2010. Based on a typical economic life span of 15 years and taking into consideration
limited availability of biomass resources in Switzerland that prevent from the construction of several FT
installations in a row, it is assumed that the second generation plant would become operational by
2025 and the third generation plant by 2040.
The Fischer-Tropsch liquid biofuels have to be considered as an alternative to their conventional
analogues (diesel, naphtha) derived from fossil resources, mainly from crude oil. In order to evaluate
competitiveness of the FT biofuel technology in the long term perspective, its future levelised
production cost was compared with the projected cost of fossil diesel. According to the American
Petroleum Institute (2004) diesel fuel prices generally correlate with the crude oil price in the long run
perspective. Hence, the projection of future prices of fossil diesel can be made on the basis of
forecasts of crude oil prices.
The production cost of conventional diesel in Switzerland in 2000 was about 56 cts/l(14.6 CHF/GJ 5
)
equal to the difference between sales prices of 143 cts/l and fiscal charges 87 cts/l (Union Pétrolière,
2000). Based on escalation factors of crude oil prices (INFRAS), the following projection of future fossil
diesel prices was made (Table 3).
2000 2010 2025 2040
cts/l CHF/GJ cts/l CHF/GJ cts/l CHF/GJ cts/l CHF/GJ
Escalation factor 1.00 1.13 2.10 2.00
Production cost 56 14.60 64 16.50 118 30.67 113 29.21
Taxes 87 22.44 87 22.60 92 23.74 91 23.63
Sales price 143 37.05 151 39.10 210 54.41 204 52.84
Table 3 Forecasts of fossil diesel price, 2000-2040. Source: Union Pétrolière, INFRAS, authors’ calculation.
Description of the method used
Assessment of future production cost of the Fisher-Tropsch liquid biofuels was made on the basis of
anticipated improvements in the overall plant operation efficiency, reduction of investment costs due
to technological learning and increased labour productivity. Because of limited availability of
indigenous biomass resource in Switzerland, it is assumed that capacity of second and third
generation Fischer-Tropsch plants would not be increased compared to the first unit hypothetically
commissioned in 2010 (400 MW th, input ), hence a scale-up factor was not applied. Assumed variation
factors of the main components of FT liquid biofuels production cost are given in Table 4. Assessment
5 Assuming energy content of automotive diesel oil 38.6 MJ/l.