Potentiale zur energetischen Nutzung von Biomasse in der ... - EPFL

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of future production cost of the Fisher-Tropsch liquid biofuels was made on the basis of anticipated
improvements in the overall plant operation efficiency, reduction of investment costs due to
technological learning and increased labour productivity. Because of limited availability of indigenous
biomass resources in Switzerland, it is assumed that capacity of second and third generation Fischer-
Tropsch plants would not be increased compared to the first unit hypothetically commissioned in
2010 (400 MW th, input ), hence a scale-up factor was not applied. Assumed variation factors of the main
components of FT liquid biofuels production cost are given in Table 4.
2010 2025 2040
Capital cost 1.00 0.80 0.65
O&M costs 1.00 0.95 0.90
Biomass (base case) 1.00 1.00 1.00
Biomass (decreasing cost) 0.90 0.80 0.70
Table 4 Variation factors of future production cost of FT liquid biofuels.
For the biomass price two cases were considered: first one with constant prices throughout the study
period and another one with decreasing cost, which presume possibility for large scale/lower cost
indigenous production of biomass energy crops and importation of low cost biomass from abroad.
Presentation of the results
As it is shown in Figure 4, the levelised production cost of Fischer-Tropsch liquid biofuels in case of
constant prices of biomass is expected to decrease gradually from approx. 43.7 CHF/GJ (15.7
cts/kWh th ) in 2010 to 38.9 CHF/GJ (14.0 cts/kWh th ) in 2040.
cts / kWh th
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
2010 2025 2040
Fossil diesel Taxes
Fossil diesel Production cost
FT bio-diesel Biomass
FT bio-diesel O&M cost
FT bio-diesel Capital cost
Figure 4 Comparison of FT liquid biofuels production cost with the price of fossil diesel (constant price
of biomass).
Meanwhile, the cost of conventional diesel (without taxes) is expected to grow up from 14.6 CHF/GJ
(5.3 cts/kWh th ) in 2000 to 29.2 CHF/GJ (10.5 cts/kWh th ) in 2040. It means that even in the long run
perspective there will be a significant gap between the production costs of FT liquid biofuels and their
fossil analogues. Hence, under the conditions of constant price of biomass, the production of liquid
biofuels via Fischer-Tropsch technology would be economically viable only with tax exemption.