Potentiale zur energetischen Nutzung von Biomasse in der ... - EPFL

Anhang 35
Bundesamt für Energie BFE
However, if the possibility of reducing the cost of biomass through the dissemination of energy crops
and imports of low cost biomass is envisaged, then the economic performance of FT liquid biofuels
technology may be improved significantly, allowing for reaching the level of economic
competitiveness compared to the conventional diesel fuel. The resulting projection of future FT
biofuels production cost under the assumptions of decreasing cost of biomass is given in Figure 5.
cts / kWh th
25.00
20.00
15.00
10.00
5.00
0.00
2010 2025 2040
Fossil diesel Taxes
Figure 5 Comparison of FT liquid biofuels production cost with the price of fossil diesel (decreasing cost
of biomass).
Under the assumptions of this alternative scenario, the levelised production cost of FT liquid biofuels is
expected to decrease to the level of 31.1 CHF/GJ (11.2 cts/kWh th ) in 2040. It means that in the long
term, if carbon emission reduction (approx. 74 kgCO 2/ GJ) is taken into account and an appropriate
premium is paid to the FT liquid biofuels, that Fischer-Tropsch technology may become commercially
competitive with conventional automotive diesel fuel even without tax exemption.
Economical analysis of FT bio-diesel end-use
Fossil diesel Production cost
FT bio-diesel Biomass
FT bio-diesel O&M cost
FT bio-diesel Capital cost
When comparing two vehicle fuels from an economical point of view, it is essential to base the
comparison on the entire life of the vehicle, by taking into account not only the cost of the fuel, but
also the cost of the vehicle itself as well as maintenance and insurance costs. Here, the use of fossil
diesel in a reference vehicle is compared to that of FT10, a mixture of 10% (vol.) Fischer-Tropsch biodiesel
and 90% (vol.) conventional diesel. The following section presents the various hypotheses
behind the calculations.
First of all, it is important to distinguish the heavy fraction (diesel) from light fraction in the FT process
output. It is assumed that the light fraction of FT process output consists predominantly of naphtha,
and the rest of produced FT liquids are diesel-like fuels. Fischer-Tropsch naphtha can be used alike
fossil naphtha as the main component for production of gasoline. In the considered reference “once
through” 400 MW th, input configuration of the Fischer-Tropsch plant the output of the light fraction
accounts for approx. 20% of the total output of liquid biofuels.
In order to calculate the production cost of a solely FT-diesel fraction, the overall levelised production
cost of FT-liquids was adjusted to the value of potential revenues from sale of FT-naphtha. The
projection of purchase price of FT-naphtha (Table 5) is based on the current production cost of
conventional gasoline (see LASEN paper on Fuel Alcohol), average differential of naphtha and gasoline
prices in international markets (IEA, 2004) and escalation factors of future oil price provided by
INFRAS.