Potentiale zur energetischen Nutzung von Biomasse in der ... - EPFL

Anhang 57
Bundesamt für Energie BFE
Ethanol production plant characteristics 2010 2025 2040
Feedstock capacity [t DM /day] 450 675 900
Ethanol production capacity [Ml/yr] 47.5 71.3 95.0
Net energy balance
Feedstock input [MW th ] 093.8 140.6 187.5
Ethanol output [MW th ] 033.5 050.2 066.9
Excess electricity output [MW e ] 002.5 003.7 005.0
Table 6 Main characteristics of the production plants considered in 2010, 2025 and 2040.
Sensitivity analysis
In order to compare the evolution of projected gasoline production cost (resp. retail price) and
bioethanol production cost, a sensitivity analysis (in the form of high and low evolution scenarios) was
performed to illustrate the uncertainty around the two reference scenarios. For each of the variables
compared in the present analysis (production cost/retail price of gasoline and production cost of
ethanol), two scenarios (a high and a low) were envisaged. The high and low scenarios for crude oil
price (and hence for the production cost/retail price of gasoline) were based on INFRAS factors, while
those for bioethanol were derived from various hypotheses discussed below. The details of the factors
employed for ethanol production cost are presented in Table 7.
Determinants
2010 2025 2040 2060
Low High Low High Low High Low High
Price of biomass 1.00 1.00 0.86 1.03 0.80 1.06 0.73 1.10
Non-transport 1.00 1.00 0.80 1.00 0.70 1.00 0.60 1.00
Transport 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.10 1.00 1.20 1.00 1.30
Specific equipment costs 1.00 1.00 0.80 0.95 0.60 0.90 - -
Variable operating costs 1.00 1.00 0.95 1.00 0.91 1.00 0.85 1.00
Fixed operating costs 1.00 1.00 0.95 1.00 0.91 1.00 0.85 1.00
Market price of by-products 1.00 1.00 1.10 1.00 1.19 1.00 1.30 1.00
Plant size 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 3.00 1.50 - -
Conversion efficiency 1.00 1.00 1.10 1.00 1.19 1.00 1.30 1.00
Table 7 Variation factors of the main determinants of ethanol production cost (high and low).
The low scenario envisages a decreasing non-transport feedstock cost, considering that such a
situation might indeed be the result of the development of an organised infrastructure for feedstock
collection and delivery as bioethanol production develops, and of the competition which might be
associated to the opening of Swiss borders. This low scenario also envisages a more fovourable scaling
up of the second and third generation plants and an increase of the selling price of by-products.
The high scenario, on the contrary, envisages unchanging non-transport feedstock costs but an
increasing cost for feedstock transport to the plant, due mainly to the increase of gasoline and diesel
fuel prices. This time, the scaling-up of second and third generation plants is less favourable to
ethanol, just like equipment costs, operating costs and market price of by-products (constant over the
whole period of study).
The graph on Figure 12 illustrates the variation range of projected gasoline production cost and
bioethanol production cost at the horizon 2040, and the respective positions of the reference
scenarios within the ranges considered.