Potentiale zur energetischen Nutzung von Biomasse in der ... - EPFL

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2000 2010 2025 2040
Oil price escalation factor [-] 1.00 1.13 2.10 2.00
Gasoline production cost [CHF/l] 0.47 0.53 0.99 0.94
Differential to naphtha [CHF/l] 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03
Naphtha purchase price [CHF/l] 0.44 0.50 0.96 0.91
Naphtha purchase price [CHF/GJ] 12.09 13.74 26.37 25.00
Table 5 Projected purchase prices of FT-naphtha.
Source: IEA, INFRAS authors’ calculation.
Table 6 presents the projected production cost of the Fischer-Tropsch diesel fraction:
2010 2025 2040
FT-diesel levelised production cost [CHF/GJ] 50.05 44.61 42.11
FT-diesel levelised production cost [cts/kWh th ] 18.0 16.1 15.2
Table 6 Levelised production cost of FT-diesel in 2010, 2025 and 2040. Source: authors’ calculation.
The key data regarding technical and economical parameters of the reference vehicle in 2010 are
given in Table 7.
VW Golf Trendline/1900 TDI ® PD/5 speed manual/105 PS/77 kW
Vehicle price CHF 34’630
Fuel consumption in combined “urban–extra urban” cycle l/100 km 5.4
Lifetime yrs 15
Average annual distance km/yr 12’850
Maintenance cost (2% of vehicle sale price) CHF/yr 690
Insurance and taxes CHF/yr 1500
Table 7 Technical and economical characteristics of the reference vehicle in 2010.
Source: www.volkswagen.ch; ARE, OFS, 2001; authors’ estimation.
Given a lifetime of 15 years (ARE, OFS, 2001) and an interest rate of 10%, annual investment costs
for the vehicle were calculated to be 4'550 CHF/yr. Annual maintenance costs were taken as 2% of
the initial cost of the vehicle, resulting in 690 CHF/yr. Other costs (including insurance, driving tax,
etc.) were taken as 1'500 CHF/yr. The reference vehicle’s consumption of the FT-diesel & conventional
diesel mixture is supposed to be equal to the consumption of conventional diesel. The fuel specific
consumption is projected to be reduced by 14% in 2025 and by 26% in 2040, while other
parameters are supposed to remain at the same level as in 2010.
The price of FT10 (conventional diesel & FT diesel mixture) was taken as 0.1 times the price of FTdiesel
plus 0.9 times the price of fossil diesel. It was assumed also that FT-diesel used as a vehicle fuel
would be free of taxes. An additional 0.05 CHF/l was added to the production cost of FT-diesel in
order to take into account distribution and retailers margins. The projection of future price of
conventional diesel corresponds to the data in Table 3 above. The overall results are given in CHF/100
km and presented in Table 8, with a distinction between vehicle, maintenance and fuel costs.