FY2017 PROPOSED BUDGET

Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority
Proposed Fiscal Year 2017 Budget
Chapter 2
Ridership and Passenger Revenue
The proposed FY2017 budget uses the FY2016 approved ridership as a baseline, modified for the
anticipated ridership impacts of policy decisions regarding fares and service as well as external
factors that affect passenger trip-making. Total rail ridership is projected at 201.5 million trips, a
decline of 8.4 million or 4.0 percent compared to the approved FY2016 level. Total bus ridership
is projected at 135.6 million, a decline of 4.5 million or 3.2 percent compared to FY2016. These
projections have been lowered as a result of the performance seen to date in FY2016. MetroAccess
ridership, by contrast, is expected to continue to grow, increasing to 2.44 million in FY2017, an
increase of 4.5 percent.
Ridership by Service
(Trips in thousands) 1 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 Variance to FY16
Actual Actual Approved Projected # Chg. % Chg.
Metrorail 204,067 206,396 209,900 201,500 (8,400) -4%
Metrobus 134,408 132,902 140,100 135,600 (4,500) -3%
MetroAccess 2,126 2,238 2,335 2,440 105 4%
Total 340,601 341,536 352,335 339,540 (12,795) -4%
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Metrorail ridership is based on linked trips; Metrobus ridership is based on unlinked trips; MetroAccess ridership is based on total passengers.
Unlinked trips are total boardings, while linked trips are total number of complete trips from origin to destination, including transfers.
FY2017 projected revenue is modified from the current FY2016 budget to account for changes in
external factors that impact Metro’s ridership, including projected growth in employment in the
District of Columbia and the region, population growth rates, and other economic factors. Metro’s
most recent system-wide fare increases were implemented in FY2015, and Metro would normally
consider broad fare changes for FY2017 in keeping with the Board’s policy to assess fare changes
on a biannual basis. However, given recent ridership declines and challenges with customer
satisfaction, this proposed budget includes no broad-based fare increases, and it also proposes the
introduction of new fare products (aimed at retaining customers and encouraging additional triptaking)
that actually constitute fare reductions.
Metro uses a set of forecasting models to develop its ridership projections for Metrorail, Metrobus,
and MetroAccess. The models use economic data from a variety of sources, including projections
from Moody’s Analytics for key inputs and an assessment of current and future economic
conditions. Two of the strongest indicators for forecasting ridership trends have been population
and employment expectations for the District of Columbia. The forecasts also utilize other
variables that capture secondary impacts, including the number of hotel rooms sold in the regional
core and the number of construction jobs in the District of Columbia. However, the changing tripmaking
behavior that has been evident in the post-recession environment has proven challenging
to forecast, particularly with respect to telecommuting and the emergence of alternative travel
options, as discussed in the next section.
Metrorail
Projected Metrorail passenger fare revenue for FY2017 is $614.6 million, a decrease of $21.3
million or 3.4 percent below the approved FY2016 budget level (including fares related to the DC
Student Subsidy program). Through the first five months of FY2016, ridership on Metrorail has
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