POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY TN

Table 2.14 shows the movement in relative terms of trade, highlighting that in
the latter part of the nineties, agricultural prices went down relative to those of the other
sectors in Tamil Nadu. In the case of manufacturing this trend, except for one year,
remains. There has also been a fall in agricultural price terms of trade relative to services
over the years. In the mid-nineties, it was substantially higher than 100 but has gradually
fallen and is close to 100.
These trends indicate that there will be strengthening of migration from
agriculture to non-agricultural activities both because of relatively lower growth of output
and relatively unfavorable price movements.
2.5 Challenges of the Changing Demographic Profile
The projected population growth rate in Tamil Nadu is estimated to fall from 0.9 percent
in 2001-05 to about 0.3 percent in 2021-25. This will imply a changing age structure of
population in Tamil Nadu.
Table 2.15: Tamil Nadu: Projected Population Characteristics as on 1 st March 2001-06
Indicators 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026
Population Proportion (percent)
0 - 14 years 27.0 24.5 22.6 21.3 19.9 18.7
15 - 59 years 64.0 65.5 66.2 65.8 65.3 64.2
15 - 49 years (female population) 56.1 56.6 56.1 54.4 52.5 50.1
60 + 9.0 10.0 11.2 12.9 14.8 17.1
2001-05 2006-10 2011-15 2016-20 2021-25
Population Growth Rate (percent) 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3
Source: Census of India (2001), Report on Population Projections for India and States 2001-26.
As given in Table 2.15, the percentage share of population in the age group of 0-
14 will fall from 27 percent in 2001 to about 18.7 percent in 2026. At the same time
population above 60 years of age will proportionately increase from 9 percent in 2001 to
17.1 percent in 2026. The share of working population (age group 15-59 years) to total
population will peak in 2011 at 66.2 percent and thereafter will show a marginal fall.
However, this is dependent on a balance coming from increasing share of the aged
population and a decreasing share of the population up to the age of 14. In other words,
while the dependency ratio will remain roughly stable there is going to be a tangible
‘aging’ of the population. A poverty reduction strategy has to take into account the
dynamics of the changing age structure of population while the falling rate of population
growth will increase per capita income. If the GSDP growth rate remains relatively high,
there will be extra pressures on health services due to increase in the number of aging
population. In the immediate run, there needs to be preparedness to absorb the growing
share of working age population in productive employment.
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