POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY TN

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Table 2.14 shows the movement in relative terms of trade, highlighting that in the latter part of the nineties, agricultural prices went down relative to those of the other sectors in Tamil Nadu. In the case of manufacturing this trend, except for one year, remains. There has also been a fall in agricultural price terms of trade relative to services over the years. In the mid-nineties, it was substantially higher than 100 but has gradually fallen and is close to 100. These trends indicate that there will be strengthening of migration from agriculture to non-agricultural activities both because of relatively lower growth of output and relatively unfavorable price movements. 2.5 Challenges of the Changing Demographic Profile The projected population growth rate in Tamil Nadu is estimated to fall from 0.9 percent in 2001-05 to about 0.3 percent in 2021-25. This will imply a changing age structure of population in Tamil Nadu. Table 2.15: Tamil Nadu: Projected Population Characteristics as on 1 st March 2001-06 Indicators 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Population Proportion (percent) 0 - 14 years 27.0 24.5 22.6 21.3 19.9 18.7 15 - 59 years 64.0 65.5 66.2 65.8 65.3 64.2 15 - 49 years (female population) 56.1 56.6 56.1 54.4 52.5 50.1 60 + 9.0 10.0 11.2 12.9 14.8 17.1 2001-05 2006-10 2011-15 2016-20 2021-25 Population Growth Rate (percent) 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 Source: Census of India (2001), Report on Population Projections for India and States 2001-26. As given in Table 2.15, the percentage share of population in the age group of 0- 14 will fall from 27 percent in 2001 to about 18.7 percent in 2026. At the same time population above 60 years of age will proportionately increase from 9 percent in 2001 to 17.1 percent in 2026. The share of working population (age group 15-59 years) to total population will peak in 2011 at 66.2 percent and thereafter will show a marginal fall. However, this is dependent on a balance coming from increasing share of the aged population and a decreasing share of the population up to the age of 14. In other words, while the dependency ratio will remain roughly stable there is going to be a tangible ‘aging’ of the population. A poverty reduction strategy has to take into account the dynamics of the changing age structure of population while the falling rate of population growth will increase per capita income. If the GSDP growth rate remains relatively high, there will be extra pressures on health services due to increase in the number of aging population. In the immediate run, there needs to be preparedness to absorb the growing share of working age population in productive employment. 46
2.6 Summary In summary the following points may be highlighted: 1. Growth is one of the strongest antidotes to poverty. Redistribution policies can strengthen the poverty reducing impact of growth by correcting market failures specially the imperfections of the credit and insurance markets. 2. Initial conditions including the asset bases are critical in enhancing the povertyreducing impact of growth. 3. Economic and employment growth are important for achieving self-sustaining poverty reduction, whereas specific programmes for poverty reduction take the poor only marginally above the poverty line, keeping them highly vulnerable to shocks including inflation shocks. 4. The sectoral composition of growth is also critical. In Tamil Nadu, as in India as a whole, the structure of the economy is shifting away from agriculture. For people remaining in agriculture the real growth is likely to be relatively low compared to the other sectors. The agricultural prices will also remain more volatile. These trends will lead to strengthening of migration trends in Tamil Nadu away from agriculture to non-agricultural activities and away from rural to urban areas. 5. Growth in employment in the primary sector in Tamil Nadu has been negative whereas that in secondary and tertiary sector has been positive and large. 6. The basic challenge in the context of the changing structure of the economy and employment is to create the capacity to absorb the migrating population out of agriculture into industry and services with proper training and skill development. At the same time, productivity in agriculture should not be allowed to fall. This will require considerable additional investment in agriculture where government will have to play a key role as the returns will not be adequate to attract large inflows of private capital into agriculture. 7. Higher growth, particularly in non-agriculture has been shown to have a significant direct impact on reducing poverty in Tamil Nadu. In the next Chapter we look at the need and scope for fiscal reforms so as to strengthen growth and broad based poverty reduction strategy emphasizing human development. These changes are interdependent: expenditure on education and health accommodates absorption of labour in the non-agriculture sectors. These enable aggregate growth to pick up, generating additional revenues for the government to take the required expenditures on health and education. Further, fiscal space is created for undertaking additional investment in infrastructure. 47
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MONOGRAPH 6/2010 MDGs-BASED POVERTY
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MONOGRAPH 6/2010 March 2010 Price:
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CONTENTS Acknowledgements Contents
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List of Tables Table 1.1 Millennium
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Table 5.10 Status of Urban Water Su
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Appendix 1.12 Maternal Mortality an
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MDGs-Based Poverty Reduction: Main
Page 17 and 18: . In terms of share of below povert
Page 19 and 20: of expenditure on public goods like
Page 21 and 22: households or individuals. For each
Page 23 and 24: Chapter 1 ISSUES AND INITIAL CONDIT
Page 25 and 26: The first three goals relate to era
Page 27 and 28: . Poverty in Tamil Nadu: Inter-stat
Page 29 and 30: and the urban poverty ratio was sli
Page 31 and 32: the total poor accounted for a prog
Page 33 and 34: physical development of people. Mor
Page 35 and 36: Table 1.11: Millennium Development
Page 37 and 38: indicates that Tamil Nadu will achi
Page 39 and 40: However, there is a scope for meeti
Page 41 and 42: status of malnutrition. The accepte
Page 43 and 44: The under-five mortality rate-U5MR
Page 45 and 46: (iv) HIV/AIDS, Malaria and Other Di
Page 47 and 48: 3. While Tami Nadu has done compara
Page 49 and 50: Chapter 2 REDUCING POVERTY: THE MAC
Page 51 and 52: est of the economy indicates the ex
Page 53 and 54: share of the tertiary sector in Tam
Page 55 and 56: Chart 2.1: Sectoral Growth in Tamil
Page 57 and 58: policies are in place to absorb lar
Page 59 and 60: In the context of interface between
Page 61 and 62: Table 2.7: Decomposition of the Hea
Page 63 and 64: Dutt are not so relevant for predic
Page 65 and 66: The SDE estimates vary across the s
Page 67: Chart 2.3 highlights that agricultu
Page 71 and 72: Chapter 3 FISCAL REFORMS FOR POVERT
Page 73 and 74: Bardhan (1996) emphasizes that ofte
Page 75 and 76: atio of government employees to pop
Page 77 and 78: Table 3.2: Tamil Nadu in Inter-stat
Page 79 and 80: Chart 3.4: Own Tax Revenues Relativ
Page 81 and 82: collected by state-owned enterprise
Page 83 and 84: Chart 3.5: Capital Outlay as percen
Page 85 and 86: The Fiscal Policy Strategy Statemen
Page 87 and 88: f. Pension and Salary Expenditures
Page 89 and 90: 10 it is kept at 40 percent to acco
Page 91 and 92: Government of Tamil Nadu has to sub
Page 93 and 94: Chapter 4 COPING WITH SPATIAL IMBAL
Page 95 and 96: In order to focus on the deficient
Page 97 and 98: Chart 4.2 indicates the arrangement
Page 99 and 100: Chart 4.5: Human Development Index:
Page 101 and 102: Table 4.4: Index of Gender Deficien
Page 103 and 104: Districts Table 4.7: Health Facilit
Page 105 and 106: Regarding access costs in availing
Page 107 and 108: 4.6 Incidence of Poverty: District
Page 109 and 110: district followed by Villupuram and
Page 111 and 112: household willing to do public work
Page 113 and 114: Districts Table 4.13: Implementatio
Page 115 and 116: Table 4.14: Share of BPL Population
Page 117 and 118: Table 4.16: Block -wise Gross Acces
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Table 4.18: Block-wise IMR in Thiru
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8. For provision of safe drinking w
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Chapter 5 WATER, LAND AND AGRICULTU
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5.2 Water: Key Issues in Tamil Nadu
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Table 5.3: Sources of Water Supply
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funding under the Water Resources C
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In 2006-7, 65.83 percent of habitat
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the major cause for poor maintenanc
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about 30 litre per capita per day (
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2006-07). However, total area under
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nearly 3.5 times as high as the pri
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5.4 Agriculture: Key Issues Agricul
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Table 5.19: Productivity (Yield) of
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Only rice and sugarcane received ir
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iv. There are severe water quality
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Chapter 6 LAST MILE REACH STRATEGIE
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targeting as a device to improve ef
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eneficiaries and of delivering prog
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In the nighbourhood of the poverty
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inefficiencies. Some of the major c
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Tamil Nadu is close to achieving un
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programmes. It is the only Self Emp
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districts in Tamil Nadu. Namadhu Gr
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6.5 Reaching Households and Individ
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proposition more insurable, a group
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line to post-office saving banks or
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each the urban poor who live in slu
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Eleventh Plan (2007) observes: “O
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i. provide financial assistance for
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unemployed or underemployed poor by
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Services Prepare detailed water sup
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Chapter 7 SUMMARY AND FORMULATION O
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positive and relatively high. The b
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3. In terms of composition of BPL p
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holdings are smaller than 4 hectare
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There are considerable inter-distri
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Table 7.1: Adjustment during 2007-0
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R i =(I a +I max -I i )/(I a +I max
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line to post-office saving banks or
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d. Targeting As far as rural areas
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7.6 Urban Poverty Reduction Strateg
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Fund, GoTN has created Tamil Nadu I
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Some initiative by Government of Ta
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• Addressing urban poverty allevi
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land. There is need to develop a sc
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REFERENCES Agarwal, S.P. (2005),
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Deaton, Angus and Alessandro Tarozz
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Himmelfarb, G. (1984), The Idea of
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Report of the Working Group on Urba
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APPENDIX TABLES Appendix Table 1.1:
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Appendix Table 1.1 (contd.): Millen
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Appendix Table 1.2 (a): Poverty Lin
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Appendix Table 1.3: Poverty Gap Est
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Appendix Table 1.5: Head Count Rati
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Appendix Table 1.6 (contd.): Progre
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Appendix Table 1.8: Women’s Malnu
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Appendix Table 1.10: Child Mortalit
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Appendix Table 1.11 (contd.): State
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Appendix Table1.12 (contd.): Matern
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Appendix Table 2.3: Decomposition o
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and Publicity Relief from Natural C
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Appendix Table 4.3: Demography Rela
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Appendix Table 4.5: Health Faciliti
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Sl. No Appendix Table 4.7: Efficien
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Appendix Table 4.9: Employment unde
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Appendix Table 5.1: Major and Mediu
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Appendix Table 7.1: Indices for Dis
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ANNEXURES 231
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Monotonicity Sensitivity Axiom Mono
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component of the poverty line is th
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Fuchs (1969), while advocating the
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H = m/n (2) The head count ratio ig
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Annexure 1.3 UNIFORM RECALL PERIOD
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‣ Periyar became Erode; ‣ Tirun
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Women Receiving 3 Or More ANC Visit
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In Sivagangai, as per 2001 census,
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Table 4.3: Block wise Gender Wise G
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Block Table 4.6: Trained Teachers a
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Annexure 5.1 ENVIRONMENTAL CONSEQUE
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Annexure 6.1 NOTES ON SELECTED CENT
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10. Kasturba Gandhi Balika Vidyalay
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