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Table 2.14 shows the

Table 2.14 shows the movement in relative terms of trade, highlighting that in the latter part of the nineties, agricultural prices went down relative to those of the other sectors in Tamil Nadu. In the case of manufacturing this trend, except for one year, remains. There has also been a fall in agricultural price terms of trade relative to services over the years. In the mid-nineties, it was substantially higher than 100 but has gradually fallen and is close to 100. These trends indicate that there will be strengthening of migration from agriculture to non-agricultural activities both because of relatively lower growth of output and relatively unfavorable price movements. 2.5 Challenges of the Changing Demographic Profile The projected population growth rate in Tamil Nadu is estimated to fall from 0.9 percent in 2001-05 to about 0.3 percent in 2021-25. This will imply a changing age structure of population in Tamil Nadu. Table 2.15: Tamil Nadu: Projected Population Characteristics as on 1 st March 2001-06 Indicators 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 Population Proportion (percent) 0 - 14 years 27.0 24.5 22.6 21.3 19.9 18.7 15 - 59 years 64.0 65.5 66.2 65.8 65.3 64.2 15 - 49 years (female population) 56.1 56.6 56.1 54.4 52.5 50.1 60 + 9.0 10.0 11.2 12.9 14.8 17.1 2001-05 2006-10 2011-15 2016-20 2021-25 Population Growth Rate (percent) 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 Source: Census of India (2001), Report on Population Projections for India and States 2001-26. As given in Table 2.15, the percentage share of population in the age group of 0- 14 will fall from 27 percent in 2001 to about 18.7 percent in 2026. At the same time population above 60 years of age will proportionately increase from 9 percent in 2001 to 17.1 percent in 2026. The share of working population (age group 15-59 years) to total population will peak in 2011 at 66.2 percent and thereafter will show a marginal fall. However, this is dependent on a balance coming from increasing share of the aged population and a decreasing share of the population up to the age of 14. In other words, while the dependency ratio will remain roughly stable there is going to be a tangible ‘aging’ of the population. A poverty reduction strategy has to take into account the dynamics of the changing age structure of population while the falling rate of population growth will increase per capita income. If the GSDP growth rate remains relatively high, there will be extra pressures on health services due to increase in the number of aging population. In the immediate run, there needs to be preparedness to absorb the growing share of working age population in productive employment. 46

2.6 Summary In summary the following points may be highlighted: 1. Growth is one of the strongest antidotes to poverty. Redistribution policies can strengthen the poverty reducing impact of growth by correcting market failures specially the imperfections of the credit and insurance markets. 2. Initial conditions including the asset bases are critical in enhancing the povertyreducing impact of growth. 3. Economic and employment growth are important for achieving self-sustaining poverty reduction, whereas specific programmes for poverty reduction take the poor only marginally above the poverty line, keeping them highly vulnerable to shocks including inflation shocks. 4. The sectoral composition of growth is also critical. In Tamil Nadu, as in India as a whole, the structure of the economy is shifting away from agriculture. For people remaining in agriculture the real growth is likely to be relatively low compared to the other sectors. The agricultural prices will also remain more volatile. These trends will lead to strengthening of migration trends in Tamil Nadu away from agriculture to non-agricultural activities and away from rural to urban areas. 5. Growth in employment in the primary sector in Tamil Nadu has been negative whereas that in secondary and tertiary sector has been positive and large. 6. The basic challenge in the context of the changing structure of the economy and employment is to create the capacity to absorb the migrating population out of agriculture into industry and services with proper training and skill development. At the same time, productivity in agriculture should not be allowed to fall. This will require considerable additional investment in agriculture where government will have to play a key role as the returns will not be adequate to attract large inflows of private capital into agriculture. 7. Higher growth, particularly in non-agriculture has been shown to have a significant direct impact on reducing poverty in Tamil Nadu. In the next Chapter we look at the need and scope for fiscal reforms so as to strengthen growth and broad based poverty reduction strategy emphasizing human development. These changes are interdependent: expenditure on education and health accommodates absorption of labour in the non-agriculture sectors. These enable aggregate growth to pick up, generating additional revenues for the government to take the required expenditures on health and education. Further, fiscal space is created for undertaking additional investment in infrastructure. 47

World Comparative Economic And Social Data
Police Stations - Tamil Nadu Police
N u m b e r o f S c h o o l s - DISE
Census 2011 population of Latur district
PDF: 1.0MB - Population Reference Bureau