Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Chapter 2. Options for future climate change architectures 77
would have to be expanded to all countries, especially developing countries
who would be allowed to sell emission rights. However, developing countries
may not have the institutional or technical capacity to deal with these.
In the Multistage scenario, many ideas are integrated into one system,
therefore requiring more decisions. In particular stage two, pledge for
sustainable development, would be complex. Assessing the impact on
emissions is methodologically challenging, which adds complexity to the
negotiation process.
Even if the concept can be easily explained, the Tryptich approach is
relatively complex compared to some other approaches. Countries would have
to agree on the Tryptich criteria applicable, such as the convergence level of the
domestic sectors. The approach also requires a set of data, including expected
growth rates of production in the various sectors. These could be provided by
countries, but there is an incentive to provide high growth scenarios. This could
be overcome if adjustments are applied after the commitment period if the
projected growth rate was considerably different from the actual one, or by
directly using the actual growth rate.
The optimal approach from a technical point of view would be compatible
with the existing international structures of the Convention and the Kyoto
Protocol. They could benefit from the institutions and structures implemented
for the use of the Kyoto mechanisms, such as international emission trading or
emission reduction projects in other countries.
The Multistage, C&C, Global Tryptich and Brazilian Proposal could build
upon the Kyoto Protocol; they are all compatible its processes and institutions,
and emission trading could continue to operate. In the multistage approach,
even the CDM would further be operational. The notion of gradually increasing
the group of countries with emission reduction commitments, is built into the
Convention. Elements to achieve sustainable development, and financial
mechanisms to assist developing countries are also part of the Convention
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008