Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Chapter 5. Conclusions 230
use, buildings and industry will need to be cut very sharply. Developed countries
need to cut their emissions by 80 to 90% by 2050, with interim emissions
reduction of 20 to 40% by 2020.
Some countries, lead by the EU, have clearly stated that a second
commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol is the way forward. Building upon
the existing elements and the institutional structure would avoid time-
consuming future negotiations on a completely new institutional setup. Some
other countries, mainly lead by the USA, see the Kyoto Protocol as having too
many weaknesses to be a good basis for the future climate regime. Setting
another mechanism is favored by these countries.
The first group argues that the Kyoto framework should be modified only
slightly to provide an incentive for developing country participation, while
moving forward with even more ambitious emission caps for developed
countries, including the United States; the Kyoto Protocol and its mechanisms
reflect a tremendous investment and commitment by much of the international
policy community. There is broad consensus that all three market mechanisms
under the Kyoto Protocol should continue in the future. Setting binding country-
level emission targets is critical to achieving long-term quantitative goals, such as
stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations.
Others challenge that the top-down approach is not viable in a world where
no supranational authority exists to enforce such an agreement, and that
incentives are driving a bottom-up international climate policy. This bottom-up
approach may be broad in terms of participation, but very shallow in terms of actions.
The world is already pursuing a hybrid bottom-up and top down approach. Parts of
the world have pursued the top-down Kyoto approach, while others, such as
the United States, have taken unilateral action on climate policy. A number of
unilateral commitments with serious climate change impacts have been made,
from the EU’s January 2008 package of energy and environmental policies to
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008