Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Chapter 2. Options for future climate change architectures 75
The Contraction and Convergence approach allows only developing
countries for economic growth (need). Even most of these will see their
economic growth restricted in a few years. The principle of capability is not
explicitly addressed. The polluter pays or responsibility principle is taken into
account as those countries that have higher emissions have to reduce them
more. However, a newly industrialized country with high per capita emissions
will have to reduce the same as an industrialized country with similar level of
per capita emissions; it does not take into account historical responsibility.
Since the international negotiation process is based on decisions agreed by
consensus, the approach would have to be acceptable for as many countries as
possible. An approach that is seen as being unfair or for which the incidence is
unbalanced may have a difficult time making it through the political process.
Possible country positions regarding each approach have been discussed before
in the description of each approach (Section 2.1.2).
To gradually phase into reduction objectives, as seen in the Multistage
approach, may be acceptable to many countries. It also takes explicitly into
account the concept of sustainable development, which is a key element for
developing countries to agree on something. However, in order to reach
stringent stabilization levels, these would have to participate quite early, as of
2020; this may not be acceptable for some of those developing countries. The
USA, whose position is of particular importance due to its withdrawal from the
Kyoto Protocol, may strongly reject absolute emission reduction targets.
The Tryptich approach combines convergence of standard of living (in the
domestic sectors) with flexibility for growing emissions (in industry and
electricity production). This would likely be acceptable to developing countries
with low per capita emissions, which will be allowed increase in emissions;
however, advanced developing countries would have to start reducing
emissions relatively early. USA would need to make substantial reductions, as
current emission levels of heavy industry, the power sector and domestic per
capita emission are high; may not be willing to do so. It has already been
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008