Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

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Chapter 3. Implications of future climate regime architectures 136 corridors in Figure 3, which only reflects the scenario set presented by Höhne (2006), based on simple assumptions and only CO2. Table 3 - 2. Possible emission reduction pathways and global emissions reference points for the different global emission stabilization levels as used in the analysis carried out by Höhne et al., 2007 Emission level in ppmv Reduction compared to 1990 CO2 ~CO2eq. 2020 2050 550 650 +50% +45% 450 550 +30% -10% 400 450 +10% -40% 2 Regional emission allowances This section presents emission allowances for five possible future climate change architectures 1 consistent with emission pathways towards 450, 550 and 650 ppmv CO2eq. for the years 2020 and 2050 - the calculation outcomes have to meet the global emissions reference points mentioned above. For this comparison of future architectures the Evolution of Commitments tool (EVOC) is used. 2.1 Overview of approaches The following approaches are included in the calculation of emission allowances: • Contraction and convergence (Chapter 2, Section 2.1.2.2) by 2050 • Common but differentiated convergence (Chapter 2, Section 2.1.2.3) • Multistage (Chapter 2, Section 2.1.2.1) • Global Triptych (Chapter 2, Section 2.1.2.4) 1 Höhne et al. (2007) include six different architectures, however, here only five are considered. Greenhouse gas intensity targets for all countries seem a less realistic case. Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008
Chapter 3. Implications of future climate regime architectures 137 • Sectoral approach (Chapter 2, Section 2.2) All of the approaches include as an element emission reduction targets. Other approaches - such as an agreement on policies and measures (see Section 2.3 of Chapter 2) or on technology development (see Section 2.4 of Chapter 2) - are not included, because their effect on countries’ emissions is difficult to quantify. Different sectoral approaches are discussed in international negotiations. One option would be that the industry in one global sector would assume a target (see Egenhofer, 2008); the responsibility to implement the target would be with that industry and not with the national governments. Another option is that responsibility stays with national governments but that the same rules for one sector are applied to all countries – e.g. emission standard or benchmark. A further option would be that emission targets are defined for all individual sectors as function of their respective output – e.g. ton of steel, kWh produced. The targets can still be reached in a flexible manner across greenhouse gases and sectors, as well as through emission trading. This last option is further developed into a global regime by the Center for Clean Air Policy (CCAP – see Section 4.5 of Chapter 2) (Schmidt et al., 2006) and is used in this analysis. The sectoral approach is modeled separately based on Höhne et al. (2006b) and not within the EVOC tool, used for the rest of approaches. Due to data limitations, the sectoral approach is only modeled until 2020, and not for all the regions – the result of the calculations cannot be shown completely in the figures below. The specific assumptions under which these approaches were explored, are not presented here (for more information see Höhne et al., 2007) – the focus is on the results. The approaches have already been assessed in Chapter 2, however, a brief qualitative comparison is going to de made in this Section. The strengths and weaknesses of the approaches selected are summarized in the following table: Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008
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References 253 References Abanades,
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References 255 IPCC, 2007. Climate
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References 257 Persson, T.A., C. Az
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Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

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