Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Chapter 2. Options for future climate change architectures 64
added up to obtain a national allowance for each country. Only one national
target is proposed, not sectoral targets, to allow countries the flexibility to
pursue any cost-effective reduction strategy. The targets are fixed before the
commitment period based on assumptions about the production growth;
whether the assumed production growth really occurs is not relevant.
Implications
To lead towards stringent stabilization CO2 concentration levels such as 450
ppmv, substantial reductions need to occur in the OECD countries. Even larger
reductions are needed in countries with carbon-intensive industries such as the
Eastern European States and Russian Federation). Most developing countries
would be able to increase their emissions substantially, but rarely above their
business as usual emissions. Only for higher stabilization targets, such as 550
ppmv CO2 concentration, some developing countries may pursue
unconstrained growth.
Possible positions
Table 2 - 4. Possible country positions. Global Tryptich
Least developed
countries
+ Substantial emission increases would be
allowed for sustainable economic growth.
India + Indian per capita emissions are very low, and
therefore would be one of the countries with
the highest allowed increase in emissions;
they could support the approach.
China 0 Unknown. China’s per-capita emissions are
around the Non-Annex I average; growth in
emissions would be capped below reference
relatively early.
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008