Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Chapter 3. Implications of future climate regime architectures 152
Contraction and Convergence
All countries participate.
Under relatively strict long-term targets (e.g. 450 ppmv CO2eq.) and
convergence by, e.g., 2050, several developing countries would have to reduce
their emissions compared to the BAU. Per capita emissions have to converge to
a level below current average of developing countries, those developing
countries above or close to the average (e.g. Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela,
Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Namibia, Thailand, China) will soon (e.g.
2020) be constrained and will not receive excess allowances.
For stabilization targets of 550 and 650 ppmv CO2eq., some developing
countries (e.g. India) would have an excess of allowances (above their baseline
scenario) and therefore be beneficiated under the approach.
Regarding Annex I regions, C&C leads to the lowest reductions for EU and
Japan because of their relative low per capita emissions, and the fact that all
countries contribute.
The later the convergence year, the higher is the contribution of developing
countries because late convergence years require low emission levels.
Triptych
All countries participate.
As in C&C, Annex I countries as a group have to reduce less relative to other
cases.
Developing countries (particularly the coal-intensive countries in Africa and
South Asia in 2050) have to contribute more to the global effort than for other
cases.
Common but differentiated convergence
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008