Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

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Chapter 3. Implications of future climate regime architectures 140 2.2 Results and discussion Figure 5, Figure 6 and Figure 7 show modeled results for the change in emission allowances from 1990 to 2020 and 1990 to 2050 for the 450, 550 and 650 ppmv CO2eq. cases respectively for Contraction and Convergence (C&C), Common but Differentiated Convergence (CDC), Multistage, Triptych, the Sectoral approach, Global intensity targets (which will not be discussed here) and the reference case. Here, the initial emission allocation before trading is shown, final resulting emission levels after trading are different (these will be discussed in Section 4, as a necessary analysis for the calculation of regional abatement cost). To capture a wide spread of possible future developments, one case is calculated for each of the IPCC scenarios (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). In the figures, the median over these different scenarios is provided; the whole spread of scenarios is provided as error bars. Comparing the reductions with the reference cases gives an indication about the level of effort needed to reach the reductions. The horizontal red lines for Annex I countries indicate the emission level in 2010 – the starting point for the calculations. For most countries this is the Kyoto target (solid lines). For the USA the 2010 level is based on the national target of an improvement of emissions per GDP by 18% from 2002 to 2012. This would result in emissions far above the Kyoto target (+23%, dotted line, compared to -7%). For Russia and the rest of Eastern Europe in Annex I the reference emissions in 2010 are chosen as a starting point, which are well below their Kyoto target (-32%, dotted line, compared to -8%). For a typical Annex I country – some exceptions are Spain or Portugal - emissions have declined from their 1990 value to their Kyoto target in 2010 (see Figure 4 left), from then on further reductions are necessary. Typical Non- Annex I countries’ emissions increase from 1990 until they participate (earliest Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008
Chapter 3. Implications of future climate regime architectures 141 after 2010), growth is then slowed and eventually turned into a reduction (see Figure 4 right). Figure 3 - 4. Illustrative pathway for an Annex I country (left) and a Non-Annex I country (right). It has already been presented in Section 2 that it is “unlikely” that the 2°C will be met (70%-100% risk of stabilizing above) with stabilization of at 550 ppmv CO2eq. (Hare and Meinshausen, 2004; Meinshausen, 2005). Therefore, the assessment of implications of different future climate change regime architectures on countries’ emission allowances are going to be made mainly for the 450 ppmv CO2eq. level of ambition. Then, the main differences between these results and the results for the other two level of ambitions – 550 and 650 ppmv CO2eq – are going to be assessed. 2.2.1 450 ppmv CO2eq. The first step in the evaluation is a more general comparison of emission reduction levels for Annex I (on the left side of Figure 5) and non-Annex I (on the right side of Figure 5) regions. Figure 5 depicts the change in the regional emission allowances compared to the baseline levels for 17 aggregated regions 1, 1 Calculations were done at the level of 17 regions. Annex I countries, placed on the left hand-side of Figures 5, 6 and 7: EU15 (Old EU Member States), USA, EU25, FRA (France), GER(Germany), UK, RUS+EEU (Russia and the rest of Annex I countries from Eastern Europe), JPN (Japan), RAI (Rest of Annex I – Australia, Canada...). Non-Annex I subgroups include (situated on the right hand side): REEU (Rest of Eastern Europe or former soviet states), LAM (Latin America), AFR (Africa), ME (Middle East), SAsia (South Asia, mainly India), CPAsia (Centrally planned Asia, mainly China), Easia (East Asia). Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008
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Summary ii Summary The objective of
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Summary iv The recent rise of secto
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Resumen vi compromisos para los pa
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Index viii Index CHAPTER 1. INTRODU
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References 253 References Abanades,
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References 255 IPCC, 2007. Climate
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References 257 Persson, T.A., C. Az
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Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

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