Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Chapter 2. Options for future climate change architectures 66
approaches seen before, the Tryptich approach is compatible with the reporting
needs and mechanisms of the Kyoto Protocol.
It is the most sophisticated approach to share emission allowances within a
group of countries, although it also has high data requirements. It requires
many decisions and sectoral data, making global application a challenge; it may
also be perceived as not transparent. The assumed future production growth
rates for heavy industry and electricity are especially critical.
The approach could be applied globally, but best would be on any subset of
countries (e.g. the group of countries with reduction targets in a staged
approach) where sectoral data are available.
2.1.2.5 Historical responsibility – The Brazilian Proposal
Description
It was originally proposed in 1997 by Brazil as a method to differentiate
emission reduction targets (element 3) between Annex I countries (element 1)
for the Kyoto Protocol. The proposal suggested using the impact of historical
emissions on the global average surface air temperature as an indicator for
historical responsibility for climate change and sharing the emission reduction
burden among industrialized countries accordingly (element 2). A higher
percentage reduction would be assigned to countries with a higher historical
responsibility. The proposal suggested using an agreed simple climate model
for estimating the temperature increase resulting from the emissions of different
countries.
Implications
The approach requires a complex analysis to attribute a country’s
contribution to temperature change based on historic emissions. Even though
the proposal was overtaken in 1997 with the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol, the
consideration of its methodological and scientific aspects has been subject to
continued debate. A joint scientific effort is currently being organized by the Ad
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008