Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Chapter 2. Options for future climate change architectures 57
• Convergence: As a second step, the targets for individual countries
are set. The global emission limit for each year is shared among all
countries so that per capita emissions converge from the countries’
current levels to a level equal for all countries within a convergence
period.
Global emission trading would be allowed to level off differences between
allowances and actual emissions.
Implications
Current per capita emissions differ greatly between countries. Some
developing countries could be allocated more emission allowances than
necessary to cover their emissions (“hot air”). They could sell this allowances to
developed countries, generating a flow of resources from developed to
developing countries.
Towards a stable CO2 concentration at 450ppmv and convergence by 2050,
only smaller states in Africa and Asia would have unconstrained emissions and
could sell excess allowances. The per capita emission have to converge to a level
below the current average of developing countries, those developing countries
above or close to the average (e.g. Argentina, Brazil, Venezuela, Mexico, South
Africa, Korea, Namibia, Thailand, China) will soon (e.g. 2020) be constrained
and not receive emission allowances. Due to the low per capita emission level
required to reach the stringent global goal, the possible transfer of easily earned
emission allowances could be relatively low. More excess allowances would be
available under a higher stabilization level, e.g. 550 ppmv CO2, or under earlier
convergence, e.g., 2030.
Reaching a fixed global emission level is easier for Annex I countries if all
Non- Annex I countries participate immediately (C&C), compared to a gradual
phased approach. Only then relatively cost-effective mitigation options in some
developing countries can be accessed and traded within the system.
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008