Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Chapter 2. Options for future climate change architectures 114
commitments on the part of developing countries have to be matched by clearly
identifiable and transparent support from industrialized countries. The biggest
task at hand: forging an alliance between North and South – with the emerging
economies on mitigation and with the poorer countries on adaptation. A global
effort is needed: around 50% of emissions at the moment come from Annex I
countries, with the remaining 50% from non-Annex I countries, and this is
rising rapidly. Substantial contributions from the South will require equally
substantial financial and non-financial support from the North.
While a cap-and-trade program is likely to be at the center of any post-Kyoto
agreement, it should not be the only part of the agreement. A simple extension
of the Kyoto Protocol’s cap-and-trade approach is not likely to succeed in
broadening developing country participation. Under the Bali Action Plan, it
would likely be limited to developed countries, these are the only ones that
agreed to even consider “quantified emission limitation and reduction
objectives”. Its effects on emissions on developing countries – currently around
50% of world emissions and increasing – would be limited unless they changed
their position. Second, the United States is not likely to ratify an agreement that
does not involve developing countries. Third, a cap-and-trade program is not
likely to work effectively in developing countries, due to the lack of elements
such as strict monitoring, adherence to the rule of law, and citizen participation.
Even in developed countries, market imperfections impede to achieve all
potential benefits of a cap-and-trade program.
The Kyoto Protocol type of commitment, absolute nation-wide emission
reduction targets, will certainly continue; emission cuts will be deepened and
the emission trading system strengthened. But maybe, not as a stand-alone
approach.
These limitations in a stand-alone cap-and-trade program may strengthen
the case for other approaches such as policy-based commitments (Section 2.3) or
international sectoral agreements (Section 2.2). The Bali Action Plan includes a
specific reference to sectoral approaches, thereby ensuring that they are part of
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008