Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Chapter 3. Implications of future climate regime architectures 155
(C&C, CDC, Multistage, Triptych and Sectoral) for future international climate
regimes were presented.
To keep 550 ppmv CO2eq. concentration – which would seem, given current
scientific understanding, to be unduly risky 1 - within reach:
Developed country emissions would have to be reduced substantially,
under all the approaches studied.
Developing country emissions need to deviate from the baseline as soon
as possible, for some countries even as of 2020 (Latin America, Middle
East and East Asia). For a 450 ppmv CO2eq. concentration, most
countries would have to participate in emission reductions by 2020.
Actions from developed countries, such as technology transfer and
financial contributions, would be needed to keep emissions in
developing countries below their business-as-usual scenarios.
For those regions that participate under all approaches, i.e. Annex I countries
and the rest of Eastern Europe and the Middle East, the difference in reductions
between stabilization targets (450, 550 and 650 ppmv CO2eq.) is larger than the
difference between the various approaches aiming at the same stabilization
target.
Only for developing countries that participate under some and do not
participate under other approaches, the differences between approaches are
large. For those countries, the criteria for participation are an important
determinant.
3 Regional abatement costs
Several studies have gone one sep further and have, based on emission
allocations, calculated emission reduction costs and possible trades of emission
1 It is “unlikely” that the 2°C will be met (70%-100% risk of stabilizing above) with stabilization at 550
ppmv CO2eq. (Hare and Meinshausen, 2004; Meinshausen, 2005).
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008