Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

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Chapter 2. Options for future climate change architectures 70 Participation Sharing emission allowances Four groups or stages. Based on proposals by countries and negotiations. Within each stage, targets are equal. All countries. All countries. Converging per capita emissions. Tryptich methodology. Sector-based approach. Originally only industrialized countries, could be potentially applied to all countries. Formula based on historical contribution to global temperature increase. With the adoption of the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, the Brazilian Proposal was overtaken. Although historical responsibility may play a role in the design of a future agreement - used as an indicator to determine when a country should act or to determine the share of financial contribution to adaptation activities - it is unlikely that it will be the only parameter used for burden sharing. It will therefore not be included in the following assessment of approaches (Section 2.1.4), as it covers only part of a regime, and wouldn’t be applied on its own. The consideration of its methodological and scientific aspects has been subject to continued debate within the international negotiation process; a joint scientific effort is currently being organized by the Ad hoc group on the modeling and assessment of contributions to climate change. 2.1.4 Qualitative Comparison In the following section, the approaches described above are going to be assessed based on the criteria already introduced in Section 1.2: • Environmental effectiveness (environmental criteria) • Cost-effectiveness (economic criteria) • Distributional considerations (political criteria) • Institutional feasibility (technical criteria) Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008
Chapter 2. Options for future climate change architectures 71 2.1.4.1 Environmental effectiveness An environmental effective approach must ensure that stringent global emission targets are reached. It should include greenhouse gas emissions from all important sources and sectors and avoid leakage (instead of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, transferring these emissions to other sectors or countries). It should also provide certainty about future emission levels. The Contraction and Convergence and the Tryptich approaches ensure environmental effectiveness best, if all countries comply with the emission targets. Stringent concentration levels, such as 450 ppmv CO2 could be reached. Leakage would be avoided since all countries would participate. The Multistage approach would eventually include all major developing countries, but only when a certain threshold is passed. Only if Annex I countries decrease emissions substantially and developing countries participate relatively early in time, stringent stabilization levels could be reached. Leakage of emissions to non-participating countries could occur; if the threshold is based on per capita emissions, the prospect of having to apply an emission limitation target may be an incentive not to increase emissions in these countries. Another environmental criterion to take into account may be the approach’s encouragement of early action, those countries that do not have yet binding commitments to keep current emissions as low as possible. The Contraction and Convergence approach encourages countries to undertake early action, since less reductions would be necessary afterwards or even excess emissions allowed. In the Multistage approach, having low per capita emissions is always an advantage, as it keeps them from moving to higher steps and to stricter targets, therefore early actions are encouraged. Non-participating countries would have incentives to decrease their emissions by participating in the CDM. However, if the targets are based on an emission level in the future, some countries may not Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008
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Summary ii Summary The objective of
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Summary iv The recent rise of secto
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Resumen vi compromisos para los pa
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Index viii Index CHAPTER 1. INTRODU
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Index x 3.1.4 Institutional feasibi
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Index xii 2.3.9 Overview of sectora
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1 Introduction
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Chapter 5. Conclusions 225 1 Introd
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Chapter 5. Conclusions 251 Adaptati
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References 253 References Abanades,
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References 255 IPCC, 2007. Climate
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References 257 Persson, T.A., C. Az
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Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

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