Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Chapter 3. Implications of future climate regime architectures 161
(3) South-East Asia and East Asia (including China) with low costs (0.5-
1% of GDP) – with low to medium income levels and per capita
emissions.
(4) South Asia (including China) and Africa with net gains from
emission trading (0.5-2.0% of GDP) – due to an excess of allowances
because, with low per capita emissions and a low income.
This way, it can be evaluated whether the different approaches are more or
less attractive in terms of abatement costs for the various regions.
For group 1 – Annex I regions excluding the FSU – the Multistage and
Contraction & Convergence (in particular C&C 2100) could be attractive
regimes. They lead to the lowest reductions for EU plus and Japan because of
their relative low per capita emissions; the fact that all countries contribute is
another advantage for Annex I regions under the C&C approach. Whereas the
Brazilian Proposal, which takes into account historical contribution to climate
change, is less attractive, leading to the highest reductions and costs for
industrialized countries.
For the Middle East and Turkey – group 2 – all approaches seem
unattractive, since they all lead to high costs. This is mainly due to their
relatively high emission reduction objectives - as a result of relatively high per
capita emissions - and low GDP. For Latin America – group 2 – the Brazilian
Proposal approach is not attractive, due to their large historical land-use
emissions.
For group 3 – South-East and East Asia (mainly China) - Contraction &
Convergence can be less attractive because of their relatively high emissions per
capita. Other approaches with an income threshold, such as a Multistage
approach, could be preferred; due to their low income levels, they would
participate later.
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008