Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Chapter 3. Implications of future climate regime architectures 145
to reduce their emissions compared to 1990 levels. However, under such a
stringent stabilization target - 450 ppmv CO2eq. – non-Annex I countries would
have to even reduce emissions below 1990 levels in 2050. Only Africa, South
Asia (mostly India) and East Asia would be allowed some increase – not much –
in all the approaches considered.
For such a stringent stabilization level, all non-Annex I regions would
participate in the Multistage approach by 2020. The only exception is South
Asia (mainly India) (their Multistage approach allowances would be equal to
the baseline scenario), because of their low per capita emissions, India would
participate later in time, but before 2050. None of the regions would receive
excess of allowances (more allowances than their reference scenario) – as could
be the case in the C&C approach, there is no space left under such a stringent
stabilization level.
For almost all the regions which are allowed an increase in emissions
compared to their 1990 levels, the Multistage approach would be the approach
to allocate more emission allowances. For the regions having to reduce
emissions compared to their 1990 levels (such as the REEU in 2020; and REEU,
LAM, ME and CPAsia in 2050), the Multistage approach would be the more
demanding. Therefore, the Multistage approach is the most demanding for
countries which are expected to be in a more developed stage (such as Annex I
countries and the ones identified earlier); and therefore leaves the most space
for the rest of the developing countries to grow, to increase by more their
emissions.
It has already been noticed before that the sectoral approach can not be
directly compared to other approaches. Nevertheless, it seems that a sectoral
approach would be even more permissive with non-Annex I regions and more
demanding with Annex I regions, in general, than the Multistage approach.
National circumstances are better taken into account in the sectoral approach.
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008