Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Chapter 5. Conclusions 232
Even though the future climate change regime will probably be based on targets
and timetables some have suggested that incentives are driving a bottom-up
international climate policy and the effort to develop a comprehensive, elegant,
top-down architecture is not viable. They propose to rely on individual
countries to coordinate policies or to implement unilateral policies. These
bottom-up architectures would eventually evolve into a more cohesive
international architecture, as countries gain more experience with their
domestic efforts and understanding of other countries’ activities. This may be
viable in the mean time until the Copenhagen deal in 2009 is reached, but from then
on a comprehensive and global architecture has to be agreed on. The climate change
issue demands concrete internationally agreed targets – even though some
countries are currently opposed to these. Although policies such as those that
ensure coordinated international research and development programs or
technology standards will obviously contribute to the global effort, they may
not be sufficient to address the urgent climate change problem; certainly not if
only based on pledges.
Another decision to be made is whether national targets should be based on
negotiating strengths or formulas. Some suggest that it is easier to agree on the
reduction target for the world as a whole or a block of countries than for
individual countries. In addition, reduction targets and special provisions for
individual countries are dependent upon their bargaining and negotiation
strengths. Commitments could be based upon some formulas combining, among others,
indicators of responsibility – perhaps based on cumulated greenhouse emissions –
and capability – based on per-capita income. Combining the two would provide
a way to operationalize the concept of common but differentiated
responsibilities and capabilities. The formula could serve as a stepping off point
for negotiations to achieve the actual reduction targets, taking into account
differences in national circumstances.
Only a compromise approach can be equally appealing to all countries. As
discussed in Chapter 2, each approach is more attractive for some and less
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008