Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Chapter 2. Options for future climate change architectures 46
used in Kyoto countries, and may be extended in the long run also for the USA
and advanced developing countries.
Some references comparing the approach to other approaches may be Den
Elzen et al., 2003; Höhne, 2003.
2.1.1.2 Dynamic targets
Emission targets are expressed as a function of GDP (Hargrave et al., 1998;
OECD/IEA 2002; Ellerman and Wing, 2003; Höhne et al., 2003; Philibert, 2005;
Pizer, 2005; Kolstad, 2006). The most common is the intensity target
(Emissions/GDP).
Intensity targets are more flexible than absolute ones, so that extremely high
costs are avoided if the economic development and therefore emission
development is greater than expected at the time the target was set. They focus
on improving the carbon efficiency of economies. They are compatible with
Kyoto Protocol’s reporting and mechanisms, but would require additional rules
for emission trading.
Environmental effectiveness is not guaranteed, there is uncertainty of the
global emission level. The final outcome in emissions depend on the
performance of the GDP; if the GDP is reduced due to economic difficulties, it
would be problematic. Also, intensity targets are difficult to set and compare
between countries; and monitoring of the GDP is required.
Including the GDP in the equation takes account of the fact that economic
activity is the main driver of emissions. For most countries the relationship
between GDP and national emissions is significant, but it is difficult to measure
how do they exactly relate. The intensity target as described above uses a linear
relationship.
Some developing countries, such as China or India, are strictly against any
type of emission targets, so it would be unlikely to be applied to them. Intensity
targets could be an option for some countries, only for those that are very
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008