Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Chapter 1. Introduction 5
ideas. From their review of the evidence accumulated in the past years, the
Villach scientists agreed that greenhouse gases could warm the Earth by several
degrees, with grave consequences. The main discovery was that methane gas
and various other gases emitted by industry and agriculture, add to the
warming caused by carbon dioxide; this meant that significant changes could be
expected within a lifetime rather than in some distant future. In their
concluding statement scientists announced that “human releases of greenhouse
gases could lead in the first half of the 21 st century to a rise of global
temperature ... greater than any in man's history.” As usual, the scientists called
for more research, but also called on governments to consider positive actions
to prevent too much warming. They urged “active collaboration between
scientists and policymakers to explore the effectiveness of alternative policies
and adjustments”.
Another milestone in the history of climate change is the 1988 “World
Conference on the Changing Atmosphere: Implications for Global Security”,
nicknamed the Toronto Conference. The Toronto Conference's report concluded
that the changes in the atmosphere due to human pollution “represent a major
threat to international security and are already having harmful consequences
over many parts of the globe”. For the first time, scientists called for
governments to set strict, specific targets for reducing greenhouse gas
emissions. The Montreal Protocol Model was to set targets internationally and
let governments come up with their own policies to meet the targets. By 2005,
said the experts, emissions should be reduced some 20% below the 1998 level.
Governments decided in 1988 to establish the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), a joint program of the WMO and UNEP, to provide
policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive advice. The IPCC was composed
mainly of people who participated not only as science experts, but as official
representatives of their governments.
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008