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Chapter 3. Implications of future climate regime architectures 140
2.2 Results and discussion
Figure 5, Figure 6 and Figure 7 show modeled results for the change in
emission allowances from 1990 to 2020 and 1990 to 2050 for the 450, 550 and 650
ppmv CO2eq. cases respectively for Contraction and Convergence (C&C),
Common but Differentiated Convergence (CDC), Multistage, Triptych, the
Sectoral approach, Global intensity targets (which will not be discussed here)
and the reference case. Here, the initial emission allocation before trading is
shown, final resulting emission levels after trading are different (these will be
discussed in Section 4, as a necessary analysis for the calculation of regional
abatement cost).
To capture a wide spread of possible future developments, one case is
calculated for each of the IPCC scenarios (Nakicenovic et al., 2000). In the
figures, the median over these different scenarios is provided; the whole spread
of scenarios is provided as error bars. Comparing the reductions with the
reference cases gives an indication about the level of effort needed to reach the
reductions.
The horizontal red lines for Annex I countries indicate the emission level in
2010 – the starting point for the calculations. For most countries this is the
Kyoto target (solid lines). For the USA the 2010 level is based on the national
target of an improvement of emissions per GDP by 18% from 2002 to 2012. This
would result in emissions far above the Kyoto target (+23%, dotted line,
compared to -7%). For Russia and the rest of Eastern Europe in Annex I the
reference emissions in 2010 are chosen as a starting point, which are well below
their Kyoto target (-32%, dotted line, compared to -8%).
For a typical Annex I country – some exceptions are Spain or Portugal -
emissions have declined from their 1990 value to their Kyoto target in 2010 (see
Figure 4 left), from then on further reductions are necessary. Typical Non-
Annex I countries’ emissions increase from 1990 until they participate (earliest
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008