Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Chapter 2. Options for future climate change architectures 67
hoc group on the modeling and assessment of contributions to climate change
(see references to the MATH project).
Countries with a longer process of industrialization and thus a longer record
of greenhouse gas emission records, would have a higher historical
responsibility than those countries that industrialized later. However, if
emissions from land-use change and forestry are taken into account, also some
developing countries will have relatively high contributions.
The original method is thought only to be applied only to industrialized
countries and therefore for absolute emission reductions. If applied on a global
scale, decisions are needed on what countries participate (e.g. GDP threshold),
and maybe how targets for newly participating countries could allow controlled
increase in emissions (e.g. reductions below a reference scenario).
Possible positions
Table 2 - 5. Possible country positions. Historical responsibility – The Brazilian Proposal
Least developed
countries
+ Very likely to be exempt.
India 0 No position known, but insistently tried to
postpone the UNFCCC discussion on the
approach (probably not because the approach
itself, but only to block any discussion on the
future).
China 0 No position known, but insistently tried, as
India, to postpone the UNFCCC discussion
on the approach (probably not because the
approach itself, but only to block any
discussion on the future).
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008