Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

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Chapter 3. Implications of future climate regime architectures 132 compare emission allowances for different future international climate change regimes; in Ecofys’ study, more approaches - actually most of the ones presented in Chapter 2 - are assessed. In addition, not two but three levels of ambition have been explored – they add the much more stringent stabilization target of 450 ppmv CO2eq. Höhne et al. use a regional downscaling method that has been criticized in the literature (van Vuuren et al., 2007; den Elzen et al., 2007). A source of uncertainty in the analysis, among others, stems from the unknown future development of emissions. The standard set of future emission scenarios used as a basis, the IPCC SRES scenarios, are only available at the level of up to 17 regions. They applied the growth rates for 17 world regions on the latest available data points of the individual countries within the respective regions. On the level of regions, the full range uncertainty about future emissions is covered; because when again aggregating the regions, the effect of downscaling cancels out. Therefore, the assessment presented in this Chapter is valid from this point of view. Höhne et al., 2007 also provide a sensitivity analysis for different options to share emission allowances between Annex I countries. When modeling emission allowances within groups of countries - e.g. whithin the EU (which will be discussed in Chapter 4), and therefore focusing on the national level - the full level of uncertainty is not covered. Höhne et al. use regional growth rates for individual countries, thus basically using the same trend for all the countries within a region. In Chapter 4, another study will be chosen – den Elzen et al. (2007). However, Höhne et al. do not present abatement costs for the different approaches to future international climate change agreements. For the purpose of Section 4, the results obtained with the FAIR model for three different post- Kyoto climate regimes – the Multistage Approach, the Brazilian Proposal and Contraction & Convergence – are used (den Elzen et al., 2005). Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008
Chapter 3. Implications of future climate regime architectures 133 1.3 Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations Not only the method for differentiating commitments needs to be defined, but also the overall global emission objective. The European Union and several European ministers, among others, have repeatedly committed to the 2ºC temperature target – “global average temperatures should not exceed 2ºC above pre-industrial level” (EU Council 1996). The translation of change in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations to change in temperature involves the relatively large uncertainty of the climate sensitivity. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC 2007b) suggested that climate sensitivity is likely to be in the range of 2°C to 4.5°C. At average climate sensitivity, the EU has to aim for a CO2 concentration below 450 ppmv (i.e. 550 CO2eq. 1). Using various probability distributions of the climate sensitivity, Hare and Meinshausen (2004; Meinshausen 2005) conclude that it is “unlikely” that the 2°C will be met (70%-100% risk of stabilizing above) with stabilisation of at 550 ppmv CO2eq. (450 ppmv CO2 only). They deduce further that there is roughly a 50/50 chance that it is met at 450 ppmv CO2eq. (400 ppmv CO2 only); and that it is “likely” to be met (2% to 55% risk of stabilizing above) at 400 ppmv CO2eq. (370 ppmv CO2 only), which is already exceeded today 2 . Starting with a baseline or business-as-usual (BAU) emissions scenario, and considering different global emission pathways for the ambition levels chosen (450, 550 and 650 ppmv CO2eq.) (Figures 1 and 2), global emission reduction objectives can be defined (Figure 3). Under the BAU scenario no special emission reduction efforts are assumed for the future. The three emission reduction scenarios shall illustrate which global emission reduction efforts 1 Stabilising the CO2 concentration at 450 ppmv CO2 and reducing emissions of other gases at similar rates would lead to a combined radiative forcing equivalent – i.e. the amount of radiation (heat) trapped by the gas, which is used to compare greenhouse gases - to that of 550 ppmv CO2 (450 ppmv CO2 ~ 550 ppmv CO2eq). 2 Since the industrial revolution, anthropogenic emissions have increased the atmospheric CO2 concentration from 280 ppmv to the current level of around 380 ppmv. Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008
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Summary ii Summary The objective of
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References 253 References Abanades,
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References 255 IPCC, 2007. Climate
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References 257 Persson, T.A., C. Az
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Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

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