Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Chapter 3. Implications of future climate regime architectures 160
low GDP. Because of their high emissions per capita, the highest abatement
costs for this region would be under the Multistage approach.
Africa and South Asia (mainly India) make gains under all the approaches
considered – except for the C&C 2100 case. For the C&C 2050, the surplus
allowances lead to high financial revenues. For the Multi-Stage approach, the
delayed participation in full permit trading leads to lower gains. The effort rates
in Africa show more extremes due to their relatively low GDP.
Under the C&C 2500 approach, since per capita emissions of East Asia
(China) are close to the world average, they would have relatively high
emission reduction abatement efforts; but these are partly compensated due to
their relatively high gains from permit trading.
- Comparison of approaches
In general, the differences the differences in regional costs for each region
reflect the differences in reduction targets, since the reduction efforts and
abatement costs are strongly related.
The effort rates of the three regime approaches for the various regions are
more systematically analyzed by comparing the effort rates with the world
average. Four groups of regions with similar efforts can be identified (den Elzen
et al., 2005):
(1) OECD regions (Annex I regions excluding the FSU) with average
costs (1-2% of GDP on 2050) – with high income and high per capita
emissions.
(2) FSU, the Middle East and to a lesser extent Latin America 1 with high
costs (3-4% of GDP and lower for Latin America) – with medium to high
per capita emissions but medium income levels.
1 Based on the arguments that Latin America has costs higher than the world average; however, since
their costs are less than the costs of the other group 2 regions, this region could also be placed in group 3.
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008