Carmen Bunzl - Universidad Pontificia Comillas

Chapter 3. Implications of future climate regime architectures 144
approach can not be directly compared, as it has been obtained with a different
model than the other approaches.
However, regional emission allowances do not differ greatly from one
approach to another. One exception would be USA’s situation in 2020, the
Multistage approach is two times more demanding than the other approaches.
In order of stringency, the Multistage approach would be the more demanding,
generally followed by the CDC, C&C and Triptych. The Triptych approach may
be the least demanding because it allows for growth and takes into account an
increase in efficiency.
Under all approaches, Annex I countries need to reduce emissions
substantially. Under the approaches shown here, Annex I countries need to
reduce emissions below 1990 levels in the order of 25% to 45% in 2020 and 70%
to 95% in 2050.
- Non-Annex I regions
Looking at their reference scenarios, it can be observed that they all
experiment great increases in emissions compared to 1990 levels; most of them
are fast growing developing countries. In 2020, some regions such as Africa and
India are going to see their emissions increased by more than 200%; in 2050,
Africa is expected to grow emissions by nearly 700% compared to 1990 levels,
India would make a significant contribution too, with a growth of around 600%.
The most slow growing region would be the former soviet states that are non-
Annex I countries (REEU – Rest of Eastern Europe).
For non-Annex regions, the results are much more differentiated for the
various commitment schemes and time horizons (2020 versus 2050) than for
Annex I regions.
Most non-Annex I regions will need to reduce their emissions by 2025
compared to baseline levels, but emissions can increase compared to 1990 in all
regimes analyzed. An exception to these is the REEU region, which would have
Escuela Técnica Superior de Ingeniería ICAI Carmen Bunzl Boulet Junio 2008