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Biomechanics and Medicine in Swimming XI

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<strong>Biomechanics</strong><strong>and</strong>medic<strong>in</strong>e<strong>in</strong>swimm<strong>in</strong>gXi<br />

Identification of a Bias <strong>in</strong> the Natural Progression of<br />

Swim Performance<br />

stager, J.M. 1 , Brammer, c.l. 1 , tanner, d.A. 1<br />

1 Indiana University, Bloom<strong>in</strong>gton, USA<br />

The longitud<strong>in</strong>al progression of athletic records has been described by<br />

best fit curves which can be used to extrapolate future athletic performances.<br />

Any subsequent significant deviations from these curves would<br />

suggest compell<strong>in</strong>g evidence of cataclysmic changes <strong>in</strong>troduced <strong>in</strong>to<br />

the sport. We evaluated recent elite swim performances to determ<strong>in</strong>e if<br />

bias can be identified with<strong>in</strong> competitive swimm<strong>in</strong>g. Predictions of the<br />

2008 Olympic swimm<strong>in</strong>g competition were calculated for each event<br />

<strong>and</strong> compared to actual performances. 17/26 events <strong>in</strong> 2008 were significantly<br />

faster than predicted (p

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