Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

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2 Myopic Investments2.1 The Balmorel modelBalmorel is a model for analysing the electricity and combined heat and power sectors inan international perspective. It is highly versatile and may be applied for long rangeplanning as well as shorter time operational analysis. The model is developed in a modellanguage GAMS, and the source code is readily available, thus providing completedocumentation of the functionalities as well as the possibility for users to adapt themodel to specific requirements.The Balmorel model has been applied in projects in a number of countries around theworld, and it has been used for analyses of, i.a., security of electricity supply, the role offlexible electricity demand, hydrogen technologies, wind power development, the role ofnatural gas, development of international electricity markets, market power, heattransmission and pricing, expansion of electricity transmission, international markets forgreen certificates and emission trading, electric vehicles in the energy system,environmental policy evaluation. See the description in Ravn et al. (2001) as well asother material available at www.balmorel.com.In relation to the present investment focus the model may briefly be characterized asfollows. The model has an integrated representation of electricity and combined heat andpower (chp) in an international framework. The model spans a number of years, eachyear being sub-divided into time segments, e.g. 10 years each with 300 segments peryear.The investment decisions are made taking into account investment as well as operationcosts. Essentially, investments are only made if the resulting prices provide a profit (or atleast not a loss).The basic version of the model is formulated as a linear programming model (versionspermitting discrete size investment exist but are not discussed here). The objectivefunction to be maximized is social welfare (sum of consumers’ utility minus producers’costs). Taxes and similar may be taken into account. The optimization is constrained bytechnical and other conditions like physical properties of production and electricitytransmission, equality of production and consumption, etc.2.2 Investments in BalmorelSpecifically in relation to investments the following are the main features. Capacities(quantities in MW) of energy conversion technologies are specified exogenously foreach geographical area and each year. New capacities may become available byendogenous investments in any year. Any invested MW in a year is available forproduction during the whole of that year, and will be available also the following years.In the Balmorel model investments are traditionally made in what is called model (orapproach) Balbase2. Figure 1 illustrates the myopic investment perspective ofBalbase12. In this example there are nine years within the horizon to be analyzed,however, they are not consecutive, such that for the first years every year is analyzed(2011, through 2014) while for the most future years only every fifth year is analyzed.In Balbase2 the nine years within the horizon are investigated sequentially. Investmentdecisions are taken for each year individually, taking into account both investment andoperation costs. The investment costs consist of the annual cost (payment) per MW foreach type of technology. This cost is the annuity of the investment, specified by takinginto account the invested amount of money, the assumed life time of the technology andthe rate of interest. Additionally the operating costs (depending on the production levels)are taken into account.A total of nine one-year Balbase2- models are solved, cf. Figure 1. After solving themodel for one year the available existing technology capacity for the next model-year isRisø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 152
updated to consist of the original exogenously specified capacity plus accumulatedinvestments up to immediately before the next model-year.Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2018 2020 2025 2030HorizonModel 1Model 2Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6Model 7Model 8Model 9Figure 1: Approach Balbase2 will solve a model Balbase2 for the years in the fullhorizon (nine years) sequentially one year at a time, updating between solves.An implicit assumption for justifying the approach of Balbase2 is that in future years theinvestments made this year will be justified. For instance if demand is increased and/orold technology capacity is removed every year, while all other input data are constantover years, then it seems plausible that more investments of the same kinds oftechnologies will be relevant next year. More rigorous consideration may be found ine.g. Leahy (1993).Obviously such assumptions are not realistic in many cases, for example with respect toenvironmental regulations. A requirement that in a future year, e.g. 2020, the emissionfrom the sector must be reduced by 20% may of course give higher priorities toinvestments in environmental friendly technologies before 2020 than without suchrequirement. This is the motivation for development of Balbase4, which will bedescribed next.3 Dynamic Investments in BalmorelThe immediate suggestion for improving the approach of Balbase2 is to makeinvestments simultaneously for all years in one model. Thus, for the example of Figure 1this has been illustrated in Figure 2, where now one model includes the full horizon ofall nine model-years 2011 through 2030. This will permit inclusion of the necessaryforward-looking mechanism that can properly provide a consideration of theappropriateness of giving e.g. higher priorities to investments in environmental friendlytechnologies earlier than 2020, cf. the example mentioned in the previous section.Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2018 2020 2025 2030HorizonModel 1Figure 2: Approach Balbase4 may solve for the years in the full horizon (nine years)integrated in one Balbase4 model.This is now made possible in the so called Balbase4 model to Balmorel. It is based onFelstedt and Pedersen (2005). That implementation has been adapted, improved andupdated for the present version of Balmorel.Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 153
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Energy Systems and Technologies for
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ContentsSessions overview 1Programm
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sessions overview08:00-09:00Coffee
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11:00 - 12:30 session 6A - Bioenerg
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ContactSustainable Energy, Technica
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Penetration of new energy technolog
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how decisions are made and by whom
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(9) is the logaritimic expansion of
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(16)we may finally write Eq(14) in
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Table 1: Fast track cases for new r
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Peterka V. Macrodynamics of technol
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Growth in clean and reliable energy
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Conclusion - an ambitious vision an
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"Spurring investments in renewable
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Integrating climate change adaptati
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transport, and finance. Energy prov
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northern South America, the Caribbe
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Table 1: Energy system adaptation s
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More generally, a number of no- or
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6 ReferencesADB, 2005. Climate proo
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Sailor, D.J., Smith, M., Hart, M.,
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Factors affecting stakeholder perce
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Another study conducted in Japan wa
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4 The effect of information on stak
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Furthermore, communication to stake
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Shackley S, McLachlan C, Gough C (2
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Figure 1: Potential CO 2 storage si
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The Upper Jurassic - Lower Cretaceo
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The majority of the individual stru
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Development. Project no. ENK6-CT-19
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Section 5 summarises the key issue
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Table 1. Efficiencies for new large
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In addition, district heating syste
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6.4 Model results from EFDA-TIMESIn
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Maisonnier, D., et al. (2007), Powe
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1Efficiency and effectiveness of pr
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3Stromerzeugung [TWh/a]250200150100
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54 Country-specific Lessons learned
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7100%90%80%quota fullfilment (%)70%
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[5] Haas R., et al: Efficiency and
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The development and diffusion of re
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a. Offshore wind in DenmarkDenmark
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applicants are invited to submit a
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nies that provide upstream and down
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for both technology users and produ
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Trade Disputes over Renewable Energ
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treatment to imported renewable ene
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In Canada, the federal government i
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grid access, subsidies and land off
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In 2010, China’s total wind insta
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Source: Renewables 2010 Global Stat
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Source: REN 21, Renewables 2010 Glo
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Page 107 and 108: their precise scope and nature diff
Page 109 and 110: 60 daysBy 2 nd DSBmeetingConsultati
Page 111 and 112: discriminatory manner on domestic a
Page 113 and 114: the European Union, the North Ameri
Page 115: ended. China lost this case because
Page 118 and 119: As most countries in the world are
Page 120 and 121: Session 3A - Energy SystemsRisø In
Page 122 and 123: 1 IntroductionWith the introduction
Page 124 and 125: occur. This is an undesirably burea
Page 126 and 127: This curve could be used as a new t
Page 128 and 129: ut for the total consumption, and i
Page 130 and 131: This gives the LBR an opportunity t
Page 132 and 133: concludes that the subsurface conta
Page 134 and 135: to constrain the evaluation. In add
Page 136 and 137: Fig. 2 SW-NE trending seismic profi
Page 138 and 139: Fig. 5. Petrophysical evaluation of
Page 140 and 141: ConclusionsThe Danish subsurface co
Page 142 and 143: Performance of Space Heating in aMo
Page 144 and 145: [5],[10],[11],[16],[18],[20],[26].
Page 146 and 147: 2/3 Sun1 Coal1/3 ElPower plantHP1 H
Page 148 and 149: 25002000Surplus(min(wind,prod-cons)
Page 150 and 151: 160CO 2 emission per unit heat prod
Page 152 and 153: The calculations have been based on
Page 154 and 155: Session 3B - smart gridsRisø Inter
Page 158 and 159: Moreover, this model is formulated
Page 160 and 161: Reducing Electricity Demand Peaks b
Page 162 and 163: 3 Event Driven Scheduling Algorithm
Page 164 and 165: 5 Mapping Teletraffic Theory to Ene
Page 166 and 167: 6.2 Results and Performance Metrics
Page 168 and 169: Energy Efficient Refrigeration and
Page 170 and 171: Virtual Power PlantAggregatorSuperm
Page 172 and 173: C p,rC p,fT rT fW cφ sT a(UA) raHe
Page 174 and 175: Total PowerP.G. #1P.G. #2C.R. #1201
Page 176 and 177: the availability payment.Simulation
Page 178 and 179: The constraint in Eq. (16) has the
Page 180 and 181: The FlexControl concept - a vision,
Page 182 and 183: can react on requests for power reg
Page 184 and 185: 3 ControlThe concept is based solel
Page 186 and 187: one hour to the next - correspondin
Page 188 and 189: 4 ProtectionThe protection of the p
Page 190 and 191: Session 4 - Efficiency Improvements
Page 192 and 193: the product portfolio point of view
Page 194 and 195: Figure 4: Principle flow sheet of t
Page 196 and 197: process information needed are seld
Page 198 and 199: AIRFINE®(Reference)MEROS®Ca(OH)2M
Page 200 and 201: 4 Conclusion & DiscussionThe Eco-Ca
Page 202 and 203: 1 Energy policy and EU directivesTh
Page 204 and 205: iomass CHP, heat pumps, electric bo
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Fig. 1: How to supply a growing hea
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Session 5A - Wind Energy IRisø Int
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The average cumulative growth rate
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turbines is expected to create a st
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O&MGridWindturbineSubstructureFigur
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Another idea is to harvest energy f
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9. Shimon Awerbuch, Determining the
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engaged in wind energy assessment,
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treated in such a way to make them
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Figure 5: Map showing the estimated
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Figure 9: The annual mean power den
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mix is required. For example diurna
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Session 5B - Wind Energy IIRisø In
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TABLE ISOME OF THE WIND TURBINE MAN
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China, has prompted all parties, in
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to the high shaft speed. Furthermor
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Superconductors must be kept cold b
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an annual increase in demand of 6%,
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Improved High Temperature Supercond
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our study to a single set of deposi
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3.2 Yttrium-enriched YBCO thin film
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Fig. 5. AC-susceptibility dependenc
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The j C (B) dependence at 50 K for
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Session 6A - Bioenergy IRisø Inter
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The European politicians are faced
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The fast growing demand for biomass
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Figure 2: Avedøre Power Plant in C
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Figure 5: Concept for a sustainable
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The role of biomass and CCS in Chin
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2.2.1 CCS Potential for ChinaCCS is
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80%70%60%China's share ofglobal CO
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In general, if the CCS technology d
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with high implementation of CCS Chi
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The European Biofuels Policy: from
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aimed to promote agriculture-based
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(EC, 2009b), and internationally vi
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Session 6B - Bio Energy IIRisø Int
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The commercial scale production of
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the production process parameters,
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NutrientWaterAlgal cultureproductio
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Schenk, P.M., Thomas-Hall, S.R., St
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Liquid biofuels from blue biomassZs
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Even though final ethanol yields we
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Integrated Gasification SOFC Plant
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2.1 Modelling of SOFCThe SOFC model
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where g 0 , R an T are the specific
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hand side y-axis corresponds to eff
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The moister content for these three
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Use of Methanation for Optimization
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power production from utilizing the
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2.1 Model DescriptionThe developed
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Figure 3: Flow sheet of methanation
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efficiency and turbine inlet temper
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[14] DNA - A Thermal Energy System
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On the effectiveness of standards v
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educing new car emissions to 120 g
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In addition energy consumption E an
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coefficient γ for the impact of fu
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400200Change in energy (PJ)01980 19
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Figure 9 depict scenarios for the f
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What are customers willing to pay f
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Randomly, continuous up to ±50%Acc
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The likelihood for the model is giv
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eally means that this factor and no
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Table 5-1 Parameter estimates from
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Table 6-2 Willingness to pay for 10
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Session 12 - Energy for Developing
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Risø International Energy Conferen
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existing renewable energy technolog
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useful energyend energysecondary en
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parts or the means of enforcing war
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The development of micro-hydro proj
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Table 1. Electric power generation
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5 ReferencesBajgain, S., Shakya, I.
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IntroductionElectricity has become
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of 2008, 43.6% of the total populat
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Hilmand provinces have comparativel
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….. eq. 5LCOE is the net present
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case of Nepal, it is 5% (Trading ec
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ing down the cost of solar PV modul
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3.3 Serving the rural areas with na
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The levelized costs of electricity
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Figure 4. Variation in LCOE with si
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The analysis reveals that fuel cost
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In case of DG, we have looked with
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Gross, R., Blyth, W., Heptonstall,
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Mode of Transport to Work, Car Owne
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power parity (PPP) basis, GDP per c
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83,385 to 109,108 while the number
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other purposes so that reduced fare
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emissions studies is that they were
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where I (·) is the indicator funct
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increases, individuals acquire more
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while that of other means of transp
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into CO 2 . For all oil and oil pro
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impact. In general, income is found
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7 ReferenceAlperovich, G., Deutsch,
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Table 1: Definitions of Variables a
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Session 13 - Energy StorageRisø In
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2 Storage demand and resulting stor
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compressed air storages, demand sit
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Fig. 3: Options for underground sto
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3.5 Geological potential in EuropeF
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Sensitivity on Battery Prices and C
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3.1 Base caseA northern European en
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4 ResultsThe model is run on a comp
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Furthermore, a slight decrease in t
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Night time charging increases with
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Lithuanian Energy Institute, PSE In
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atteries, Compressed Air Energy Sto
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negative net load, can be expected
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25%Pct. of the year20%15%10%5%0.5-0
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800006000040000MWh200000Netload-200
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[4] B. V. Mathiesen and H. Lund, "C
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Compressed Air Energy Storage in Of
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compressed air caverns, corrosion-r
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Figure 3: Distribution of salt depo
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Figure 6: EWEA's 20 year Offshore N
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spinning reserves can be provided b
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7 Discussion and conclusionsThis pa
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Risø DTU is the National Laborator
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