Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

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diffusion and utilization of technology” (Carlsson & Stànkiewicz, 1991; p.94)This definition acknowledges that a technological innovation system transcendsterritorial boundaries, and, that a technology cuts across various industrial sectors. Theapproach has been demonstrated in a number of empirical studies (Bergek et al., 2008;Jacobsson, 2008; Jacobsson et al., 2004; Negro et al., 2008; Borup et al, 2009) and isparticularly useful for the purposes of this project as it captures the dynamics takingplace within technological innovation systems (TIS). To address these dynamics, keyactivities in the innovation system can be identified and classified along definedfunctions of innovation systems. As described by Hekkert et al., the function ofinnovation systems “focuses on the most important processes that need to take place inthe innovation systems to lead successfully to technology development and diffusion”(2007). The seven functions include: entrepreneurial activities, knowledge development(learning processes), knowledge diffusion through networks, guidance of the search,market formation, resource mobilisation, and creation of legitimacy/counteract resistanceto change.Thus, the purpose of the paper is to create insight into how the process of momentumbuilding takes place in the TIS by analysing the dynamic interplay between the system’sactors, institutions and networks and its functional patterns. Likewise, the paper analysesthe role of policy targets and mechanisms within and across national boundaries.3. Methodology and dataA comparative case study approach is applied, comprising two different technologies intwo countries, both of which are assumed to play a key role for the worldwide transitionto a low carbon energy system: offshore wind technology in Denmark and solarphotovoltaic technology in Norway. The selection of these cases is motivated not only bythe importance in the national energy systems of these technologies, but also because ofmarket opportunities for these energy technologies in a global scope.The analysis of both cases is structured accordingly in a basic analysis of thetechnological innovation systems, and a policy outlook.The basic analysis includes following:• Review of innovation characteristics,• Market aspects,• Actors and networks which are involved in relevant innovation processes,• Institutional setting (R&D programs, regulations, expectations, norms and values).The case study on offshore wind technology was made as a desk research developed invarious projects. Firstly, an innovation system analysis of the Danish wind energy sectorwas made as part of the assignment for the Danish Climate Commission on the role ofRD&D in accelerating energy technologies (Jørgensen & Münster, 2010). Secondly,back ground work was produced for the Megavind RD&D offshore wind energystrategy, which took place during May – November 2010.The data used for the basic analysis of the case study on solar photovoltaics wasdeveloped in several projects over the last years (Klitkou, 2010; Klitkou & Godø, 2010;Klitkou et al., 2008). This includes an analysis of the technology (patents, bibliometricdata), actors and networks of actors, R&D institutions, and market developments.Interviews with R&D programme managers of the RCN and researchers from R&Dorganisations and industry experts provided important insights.Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 78
a. Offshore wind in DenmarkDenmark was the first country in the world to develop and implement wind power in itsenergy system. The wind power share of the domestic electricity supply has increasedfrom 1.9% in 1990 to more than 20% in 2010.Since the end of the 1970s Denmark has built up a strong technological and researchcompetence in wind power and in 1991 Denmark became the first country in the worldto install offshore wind with 11 x 450 kW Siemens turbines in the Vindeby offshorewind farm (Danish Energy Agency, 2009). This was followed by smaller demonstrationprojects until Middelgrunden (20 x 2 MW) paved the way for the first two large offshorewind farms at Horns Rev I (80 x 2 MW) and Rødsand I (72 x 2.3 MW) in 2002 and2003. Since then UK has passed Denmark in cumulated installed capacity and is todaythe leading offshore wind country, though relying on offshore technologies andcapabilities from the Danish wind energy sector (BTM Consult, 2010).Basic analysisInnovation characteristics: The electricity production of a wind turbine depends on windconditions. Wind speed varies from place to place and over time and generally, windblows more at sea than on land. The development of offshore wind turbines has since1991 passed through three phases – the pioneering period up to 2000 consisted ofrelatively small turbines (450-600 kW) installed near coast. The following three years,mainstream megawatt technology was adapted to offshore. Since 2003 emphasis is todesign MW technology for the offshore environment. Upscaling, reliability and quality isneeded to develop competitive wind power plants.Cost of energy is far from being competitive with onshore wind power, not to sayelectricity produced from coal fired power plants (IEA, 2009; Megavind, 2010). But costof energy can be halved through dedicated RD&D. The Megavind Offshore RD&Dstrategy aims at making offshore wind power competitive with newly built coal-firedpower plants by 2020 (Megavind, 2010). More specifically, this implies 25% increase ofthe power production per installed MW, 40% reduction of the installation costs per MWand 50% cost reduction of operation and maintenance per installed MW.Also, new innovative floating concepts for deep waters may drive down cost of energy inthe long run. Also the combination of technology development and installation of nearshore wind power farms in shallow waters may drive down cost of energy providedpublic acceptance.Market demand aspects: The market for wind generation is expected to expand in thefuture. While land based wind energy will remain dominant in the immediate future,offshore wind will become increasingly important. The actual offshore wind energy islocated almost entirely in Northern Europe due to large sea areas with water depth < 50mand good wind resources, while land resources with good wind conditions are scarce.Although the European offshore wind energy is still in its infancy with 2.1 GW ininstalled capacity, it is expected to increase to 40 GW or 25% of European wind powerby 2020 similar to 3.6–4.3% of EU electricity consumption (EWEA, 2009).While Denmark has the highest proportion of installed wind capacity to population, thefuture market for offshore wind is abroad, in the waters of Northern Europe. Today, thelargest offshore market is UK (894 MW) and Denmark (625.9 MW) (BTM Consult,2010). Although Denmark has set ambitious target for offshore wind, both Germany andUK have announced indicative targets for offshore wind of 20–30 MW. In the UK theCrown Estate has in its three rounds built up the potential for around 40 GW to beinstalled by 2025. The national target of Germany is 9 GW but the most likelydevelopment indicates 20–25 GW by 2030 (BTM Consult, 2010: 95).There is some competition around the North Sea to offer attractive shipping ports foroffshore turbines, foundations and transformer platforms. Due to the size of thesestructures, manufacturers and suppliers often prefer to locate manufacturing facilities ator close to the ports of shipping (BTM Consult, 2010: 90).Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 79
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Energy Systems and Technologies for
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ContentsSessions overview 1Programm
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sessions overview08:00-09:00Coffee
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11:00 - 12:30 session 6A - Bioenerg
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ContactSustainable Energy, Technica
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Penetration of new energy technolog
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how decisions are made and by whom
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(9) is the logaritimic expansion of
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(16)we may finally write Eq(14) in
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Table 1: Fast track cases for new r
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Peterka V. Macrodynamics of technol
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Growth in clean and reliable energy
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Conclusion - an ambitious vision an
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"Spurring investments in renewable
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Integrating climate change adaptati
Page 31 and 32: transport, and finance. Energy prov
Page 33 and 34: northern South America, the Caribbe
Page 35 and 36: Table 1: Energy system adaptation s
Page 37 and 38: More generally, a number of no- or
Page 39 and 40: 6 ReferencesADB, 2005. Climate proo
Page 41 and 42: Sailor, D.J., Smith, M., Hart, M.,
Page 43 and 44: Factors affecting stakeholder perce
Page 45 and 46: Another study conducted in Japan wa
Page 47 and 48: 4 The effect of information on stak
Page 49 and 50: Furthermore, communication to stake
Page 51 and 52: Shackley S, McLachlan C, Gough C (2
Page 53 and 54: Figure 1: Potential CO 2 storage si
Page 55 and 56: The Upper Jurassic - Lower Cretaceo
Page 57 and 58: The majority of the individual stru
Page 59 and 60: Development. Project no. ENK6-CT-19
Page 61 and 62: Section 5 summarises the key issue
Page 63 and 64: Table 1. Efficiencies for new large
Page 65 and 66: In addition, district heating syste
Page 67 and 68: 6.4 Model results from EFDA-TIMESIn
Page 69 and 70: Maisonnier, D., et al. (2007), Powe
Page 71 and 72: 1Efficiency and effectiveness of pr
Page 73 and 74: 3Stromerzeugung [TWh/a]250200150100
Page 75 and 76: 54 Country-specific Lessons learned
Page 77 and 78: 7100%90%80%quota fullfilment (%)70%
Page 79 and 80: [5] Haas R., et al: Efficiency and
Page 81: The development and diffusion of re
Page 85 and 86: applicants are invited to submit a
Page 87 and 88: nies that provide upstream and down
Page 89 and 90: for both technology users and produ
Page 91 and 92: Trade Disputes over Renewable Energ
Page 93 and 94: treatment to imported renewable ene
Page 95 and 96: In Canada, the federal government i
Page 97 and 98: grid access, subsidies and land off
Page 99 and 100: In 2010, China’s total wind insta
Page 101 and 102: Source: Renewables 2010 Global Stat
Page 103 and 104: Source: REN 21, Renewables 2010 Glo
Page 105 and 106: Source: adapted from REN21, 2010It
Page 107 and 108: their precise scope and nature diff
Page 109 and 110: 60 daysBy 2 nd DSBmeetingConsultati
Page 111 and 112: discriminatory manner on domestic a
Page 113 and 114: the European Union, the North Ameri
Page 115: ended. China lost this case because
Page 118 and 119: As most countries in the world are
Page 120 and 121: Session 3A - Energy SystemsRisø In
Page 122 and 123: 1 IntroductionWith the introduction
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Page 126 and 127: This curve could be used as a new t
Page 128 and 129: ut for the total consumption, and i
Page 130 and 131: This gives the LBR an opportunity t
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concludes that the subsurface conta
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to constrain the evaluation. In add
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Fig. 2 SW-NE trending seismic profi
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Fig. 5. Petrophysical evaluation of
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ConclusionsThe Danish subsurface co
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Performance of Space Heating in aMo
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[5],[10],[11],[16],[18],[20],[26].
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2/3 Sun1 Coal1/3 ElPower plantHP1 H
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25002000Surplus(min(wind,prod-cons)
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160CO 2 emission per unit heat prod
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The calculations have been based on
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Session 3B - smart gridsRisø Inter
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2 Myopic Investments2.1 The Balmore
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Moreover, this model is formulated
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Reducing Electricity Demand Peaks b
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3 Event Driven Scheduling Algorithm
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5 Mapping Teletraffic Theory to Ene
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6.2 Results and Performance Metrics
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Energy Efficient Refrigeration and
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Virtual Power PlantAggregatorSuperm
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C p,rC p,fT rT fW cφ sT a(UA) raHe
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Total PowerP.G. #1P.G. #2C.R. #1201
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the availability payment.Simulation
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The constraint in Eq. (16) has the
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The FlexControl concept - a vision,
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can react on requests for power reg
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3 ControlThe concept is based solel
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one hour to the next - correspondin
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4 ProtectionThe protection of the p
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Session 4 - Efficiency Improvements
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the product portfolio point of view
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Figure 4: Principle flow sheet of t
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process information needed are seld
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AIRFINE®(Reference)MEROS®Ca(OH)2M
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4 Conclusion & DiscussionThe Eco-Ca
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1 Energy policy and EU directivesTh
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iomass CHP, heat pumps, electric bo
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Fig. 1: How to supply a growing hea
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Session 5A - Wind Energy IRisø Int
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The average cumulative growth rate
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turbines is expected to create a st
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O&MGridWindturbineSubstructureFigur
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Another idea is to harvest energy f
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9. Shimon Awerbuch, Determining the
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engaged in wind energy assessment,
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treated in such a way to make them
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Figure 5: Map showing the estimated
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Figure 9: The annual mean power den
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mix is required. For example diurna
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Session 5B - Wind Energy IIRisø In
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TABLE ISOME OF THE WIND TURBINE MAN
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China, has prompted all parties, in
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to the high shaft speed. Furthermor
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Superconductors must be kept cold b
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an annual increase in demand of 6%,
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Improved High Temperature Supercond
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our study to a single set of deposi
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3.2 Yttrium-enriched YBCO thin film
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Fig. 5. AC-susceptibility dependenc
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The j C (B) dependence at 50 K for
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Session 6A - Bioenergy IRisø Inter
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The European politicians are faced
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The fast growing demand for biomass
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Figure 2: Avedøre Power Plant in C
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Figure 5: Concept for a sustainable
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The role of biomass and CCS in Chin
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2.2.1 CCS Potential for ChinaCCS is
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80%70%60%China's share ofglobal CO
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In general, if the CCS technology d
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with high implementation of CCS Chi
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The European Biofuels Policy: from
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aimed to promote agriculture-based
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(EC, 2009b), and internationally vi
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Session 6B - Bio Energy IIRisø Int
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The commercial scale production of
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the production process parameters,
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NutrientWaterAlgal cultureproductio
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Schenk, P.M., Thomas-Hall, S.R., St
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Liquid biofuels from blue biomassZs
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Even though final ethanol yields we
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Integrated Gasification SOFC Plant
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2.1 Modelling of SOFCThe SOFC model
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where g 0 , R an T are the specific
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hand side y-axis corresponds to eff
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The moister content for these three
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Use of Methanation for Optimization
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power production from utilizing the
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2.1 Model DescriptionThe developed
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Figure 3: Flow sheet of methanation
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efficiency and turbine inlet temper
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[14] DNA - A Thermal Energy System
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On the effectiveness of standards v
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educing new car emissions to 120 g
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In addition energy consumption E an
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coefficient γ for the impact of fu
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400200Change in energy (PJ)01980 19
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Figure 9 depict scenarios for the f
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What are customers willing to pay f
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Randomly, continuous up to ±50%Acc
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The likelihood for the model is giv
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eally means that this factor and no
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Table 5-1 Parameter estimates from
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Table 6-2 Willingness to pay for 10
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Session 12 - Energy for Developing
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Risø International Energy Conferen
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existing renewable energy technolog
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useful energyend energysecondary en
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parts or the means of enforcing war
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The development of micro-hydro proj
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Table 1. Electric power generation
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5 ReferencesBajgain, S., Shakya, I.
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IntroductionElectricity has become
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of 2008, 43.6% of the total populat
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Hilmand provinces have comparativel
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….. eq. 5LCOE is the net present
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case of Nepal, it is 5% (Trading ec
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ing down the cost of solar PV modul
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3.3 Serving the rural areas with na
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The levelized costs of electricity
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Figure 4. Variation in LCOE with si
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The analysis reveals that fuel cost
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In case of DG, we have looked with
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Gross, R., Blyth, W., Heptonstall,
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Mode of Transport to Work, Car Owne
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power parity (PPP) basis, GDP per c
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83,385 to 109,108 while the number
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other purposes so that reduced fare
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emissions studies is that they were
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where I (·) is the indicator funct
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increases, individuals acquire more
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while that of other means of transp
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into CO 2 . For all oil and oil pro
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impact. In general, income is found
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7 ReferenceAlperovich, G., Deutsch,
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Table 1: Definitions of Variables a
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Session 13 - Energy StorageRisø In
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2 Storage demand and resulting stor
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compressed air storages, demand sit
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Fig. 3: Options for underground sto
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3.5 Geological potential in EuropeF
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Sensitivity on Battery Prices and C
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3.1 Base caseA northern European en
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4 ResultsThe model is run on a comp
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Furthermore, a slight decrease in t
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Night time charging increases with
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Lithuanian Energy Institute, PSE In
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atteries, Compressed Air Energy Sto
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negative net load, can be expected
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25%Pct. of the year20%15%10%5%0.5-0
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800006000040000MWh200000Netload-200
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[4] B. V. Mathiesen and H. Lund, "C
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Compressed Air Energy Storage in Of
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compressed air caverns, corrosion-r
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Figure 3: Distribution of salt depo
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Figure 6: EWEA's 20 year Offshore N
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spinning reserves can be provided b
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7 Discussion and conclusionsThis pa
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Risø DTU is the National Laborator
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