Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

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of 2008, 43.6% of the total population of Nepal has access to electricity; with theelectrification access rate of 89.7% in the urban areas and 34% in the rural areas (IEA,2008). Government policies in Nepal promote both on-grid and off-grid solutions forrural electrification. On-grid electrification is developed by Nepal Electricity Authority(NEA), the national utility accountable for generation, transmission and distribution ofelectricity. Off-grid electrification is promoted by Alternative Energy Promotion Centre(AEPC), the government body formed to promote alternative energy technologies. Microhydro and solar technologies are the current choice in Nepal, because of the provisiongovernment subsidy support under two major programmes: Rural Energy DevelopmentProgramme (REDP) and Energy Sector Assistance Programme (ESAP).The contribution of electricity generation from off-grid technologies (solar PV and microhydro) has been doubled in last eight years i.e. from 0.8% (2000/01) to 1.7% (2008/09) ofthe total electricity supplied. The contribution of micro hydro and solar PV is shown inthe table 1.Table 1: Contribution of Micro hydro and Solar PV in GWh from 2000/01-2008/09Fiscal Year 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09TechnologyMicro hydro 10.58 11.42 13.11 14.50 15.81 18.08 25.06 31.30 37.77Solar PV 0.083 0.250 0.472 0.611 0.750 0.806 0.861 1.139 1.556(Source: WECS, 2010)The government of Nepal has given priority for rural electrification with clearly definedsubsidies policies, which has helped in the formation of market and promoteelectrification using renewable technologies (Mainali and Silveira, 2011). In addition, awell-defined quality assurance system has made the technology market reliable andpresence of users association, manufacturing/installation companies and their dealers’network, local NGOs and credit institutions have more or less given tangible shape to themarket (Mainali and Silveira, 2010).2. MethodologyAs mentioned earlier, three reference energy technologies viz. solar PV, micro hydro andwind technologies have been taken for the alternative scenario assessment. Themethodology developed in this study is elaborated form of the methodology used byNguyen (2007). The comparative scenario with fossil based generation is also analyzedand the electrification scenario with central grid extension is also looked at. In addition,the paper has also analyzed the scenario with grid connection of the isolated micro hydroplants, if the grid line reaches the vicinity. Selection of technology, estimation of theenergy output from those selected technologies and their economic analysis create abasis for judging the alternative pathways. Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for thesevarious scenarios will allow in making comparative analysis. The sensitivity analysis isalso carried out to look at the relation of these LCOE from various technologies withvariation in the load factors, rise in the fuel price (in case of fossil based technology),distance from the grid lines, load densities and also with the subsidy level. Thisassessment has been done in the case of Afghanistan and Nepal. The situations haveRisø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 360
een further compared with the case study of Vietnam, done by Nguyen (2007).The datafor this analysis has been collected from various projects implemented under AlternativeEnergy Promotion Centre/Ministry of Environment, Rural Energy DevelopmentProgramme (REDP) supported by United Nation Development Programme (UNDP) andWorld Bank (WB), Regional Renewable Energy Service Centres (RRESC) of EnergySector Assistance Programme (ESAP) and the private companies from Nepal. In case ofAfghanistan, availability of systematic data was a major constraint noticed during thetime of study. Data were collected from National Solidarity Programme (NSP) andNational Area Based Development Programme (NABDP) under Ministry of RuralRehabilitation and Development and supported by UNDP in case of Afghanistan.2.1 Technology selection and energy estimationStand-alone technology like solar home systems (SHS), wind home systems (WHS) andmicro hydro are the promising off-grid technologies for remote rural electrification inNepal. Wind technology is not much explored in Nepal other than wind resourcemapping under the support of United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) andsome small wind generators for the demonstration. Diesel generator set is hardly used infew accessible places where there is no grid lines. In this paper we analyze the scenarioswith solar home system of 40 Wp, wind generator set of 400 Wp, and micro hydro of 25kW and 50 kW. The analysis will also look at the alternatives supplying with dieselgenerator, and also connecting the household with national grid extension. After the hugeinvestment in micro hydro power for the off-grid electrification and rapid expansion ofgrid electricity under community rural electrification project of NEA, the distancebetween grid and some of the micro hydro project area is reducing significantly in Nepal.So, we have also looked at the LCOE with micro hydro connected with grid.In case of Afghanistan, the source of electricity is mainly micro hydro power, privatediesel generators and solar PV. No records on the exploitation of wind energy werefound. We analyze the levelized cost of solar home system (60 Wp), micro hydro (25 kWand 50 kW) and diesel generator (20 kW).After the choice of the reference technologies for the analysis, we will estimate theavailability of the energy with these various renewable energy technologies. The energyproduced by these technologies is location specific and hence differs in case ofAfghanistan and Nepal. The amount of energy generated depends on the metrologicalconditions and it has been estimated based on the yearly average data of the resources.The annual average solar insulation in Nepal varies from 3.5–8.5 kWh/m 2 /day (NREL,2007a) and the estimated days for sun shine in a year is 300 days (WECS, 2010).Similarly, the average solar insolation intensity is 200 watt/m 2 . The annual average solarinsolation in Jhapa, Biratnagar and Chitwan districts are comparatively lower whereasDolpa, Mugu and Mustang have higher average solar insolation among all the 75 districts.In case of Afghanistan, the annual average solar insolation is varying from 4.5 to 7.0kWh/m2/day (NREL, 2007b), and the estimated sun shine days in a year is 300 days(Meisen and Azizy, 2008). Most of areas have good solar insolation. Kandahar andRisø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 361
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Energy Systems and Technologies for
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ContentsSessions overview 1Programm
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sessions overview08:00-09:00Coffee
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11:00 - 12:30 session 6A - Bioenerg
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ContactSustainable Energy, Technica
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Penetration of new energy technolog
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how decisions are made and by whom
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(9) is the logaritimic expansion of
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(16)we may finally write Eq(14) in
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Table 1: Fast track cases for new r
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Peterka V. Macrodynamics of technol
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Growth in clean and reliable energy
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Conclusion - an ambitious vision an
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"Spurring investments in renewable
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Integrating climate change adaptati
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transport, and finance. Energy prov
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northern South America, the Caribbe
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Table 1: Energy system adaptation s
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More generally, a number of no- or
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6 ReferencesADB, 2005. Climate proo
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Sailor, D.J., Smith, M., Hart, M.,
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Factors affecting stakeholder perce
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Another study conducted in Japan wa
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4 The effect of information on stak
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Furthermore, communication to stake
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Shackley S, McLachlan C, Gough C (2
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Figure 1: Potential CO 2 storage si
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The Upper Jurassic - Lower Cretaceo
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The majority of the individual stru
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Development. Project no. ENK6-CT-19
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Section 5 summarises the key issue
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Table 1. Efficiencies for new large
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In addition, district heating syste
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6.4 Model results from EFDA-TIMESIn
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Maisonnier, D., et al. (2007), Powe
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1Efficiency and effectiveness of pr
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3Stromerzeugung [TWh/a]250200150100
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54 Country-specific Lessons learned
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7100%90%80%quota fullfilment (%)70%
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[5] Haas R., et al: Efficiency and
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The development and diffusion of re
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a. Offshore wind in DenmarkDenmark
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applicants are invited to submit a
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nies that provide upstream and down
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for both technology users and produ
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Trade Disputes over Renewable Energ
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treatment to imported renewable ene
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In Canada, the federal government i
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grid access, subsidies and land off
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In 2010, China’s total wind insta
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Source: Renewables 2010 Global Stat
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Source: REN 21, Renewables 2010 Glo
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Source: adapted from REN21, 2010It
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their precise scope and nature diff
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60 daysBy 2 nd DSBmeetingConsultati
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discriminatory manner on domestic a
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the European Union, the North Ameri
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ended. China lost this case because
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As most countries in the world are
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Session 3A - Energy SystemsRisø In
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1 IntroductionWith the introduction
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occur. This is an undesirably burea
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This curve could be used as a new t
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ut for the total consumption, and i
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This gives the LBR an opportunity t
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concludes that the subsurface conta
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to constrain the evaluation. In add
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Fig. 2 SW-NE trending seismic profi
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Fig. 5. Petrophysical evaluation of
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ConclusionsThe Danish subsurface co
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Performance of Space Heating in aMo
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[5],[10],[11],[16],[18],[20],[26].
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2/3 Sun1 Coal1/3 ElPower plantHP1 H
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25002000Surplus(min(wind,prod-cons)
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160CO 2 emission per unit heat prod
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The calculations have been based on
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Session 3B - smart gridsRisø Inter
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2 Myopic Investments2.1 The Balmore
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Moreover, this model is formulated
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Reducing Electricity Demand Peaks b
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3 Event Driven Scheduling Algorithm
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5 Mapping Teletraffic Theory to Ene
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6.2 Results and Performance Metrics
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Energy Efficient Refrigeration and
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Virtual Power PlantAggregatorSuperm
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C p,rC p,fT rT fW cφ sT a(UA) raHe
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Total PowerP.G. #1P.G. #2C.R. #1201
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the availability payment.Simulation
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The constraint in Eq. (16) has the
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The FlexControl concept - a vision,
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can react on requests for power reg
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3 ControlThe concept is based solel
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one hour to the next - correspondin
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4 ProtectionThe protection of the p
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Session 4 - Efficiency Improvements
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the product portfolio point of view
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Figure 4: Principle flow sheet of t
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process information needed are seld
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AIRFINE®(Reference)MEROS®Ca(OH)2M
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4 Conclusion & DiscussionThe Eco-Ca
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1 Energy policy and EU directivesTh
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iomass CHP, heat pumps, electric bo
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Fig. 1: How to supply a growing hea
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Session 5A - Wind Energy IRisø Int
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The average cumulative growth rate
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turbines is expected to create a st
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O&MGridWindturbineSubstructureFigur
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Another idea is to harvest energy f
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9. Shimon Awerbuch, Determining the
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engaged in wind energy assessment,
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treated in such a way to make them
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Figure 5: Map showing the estimated
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Figure 9: The annual mean power den
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mix is required. For example diurna
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Session 5B - Wind Energy IIRisø In
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TABLE ISOME OF THE WIND TURBINE MAN
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China, has prompted all parties, in
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to the high shaft speed. Furthermor
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Superconductors must be kept cold b
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an annual increase in demand of 6%,
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Improved High Temperature Supercond
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our study to a single set of deposi
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3.2 Yttrium-enriched YBCO thin film
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Fig. 5. AC-susceptibility dependenc
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The j C (B) dependence at 50 K for
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Session 6A - Bioenergy IRisø Inter
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The European politicians are faced
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The fast growing demand for biomass
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Figure 2: Avedøre Power Plant in C
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Figure 5: Concept for a sustainable
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The role of biomass and CCS in Chin
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2.2.1 CCS Potential for ChinaCCS is
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80%70%60%China's share ofglobal CO
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In general, if the CCS technology d
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with high implementation of CCS Chi
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The European Biofuels Policy: from
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aimed to promote agriculture-based
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(EC, 2009b), and internationally vi
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Session 6B - Bio Energy IIRisø Int
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The commercial scale production of
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the production process parameters,
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NutrientWaterAlgal cultureproductio
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Schenk, P.M., Thomas-Hall, S.R., St
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Liquid biofuels from blue biomassZs
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Even though final ethanol yields we
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Integrated Gasification SOFC Plant
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2.1 Modelling of SOFCThe SOFC model
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where g 0 , R an T are the specific
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hand side y-axis corresponds to eff
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The moister content for these three
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Use of Methanation for Optimization
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power production from utilizing the
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2.1 Model DescriptionThe developed
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Figure 3: Flow sheet of methanation
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efficiency and turbine inlet temper
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[14] DNA - A Thermal Energy System
Page 314 and 315: On the effectiveness of standards v
Page 316 and 317: educing new car emissions to 120 g
Page 318 and 319: In addition energy consumption E an
Page 320 and 321: coefficient γ for the impact of fu
Page 322 and 323: 400200Change in energy (PJ)01980 19
Page 324 and 325: Figure 9 depict scenarios for the f
Page 326 and 327: What are customers willing to pay f
Page 328 and 329: Randomly, continuous up to ±50%Acc
Page 330 and 331: The likelihood for the model is giv
Page 332 and 333: eally means that this factor and no
Page 334 and 335: Table 5-1 Parameter estimates from
Page 336 and 337: Table 6-2 Willingness to pay for 10
Page 338 and 339: Session 12 - Energy for Developing
Page 340 and 341: Risø International Energy Conferen
Page 350 and 351: existing renewable energy technolog
Page 352 and 353: useful energyend energysecondary en
Page 354 and 355: parts or the means of enforcing war
Page 356 and 357: The development of micro-hydro proj
Page 358 and 359: Table 1. Electric power generation
Page 360 and 361: 5 ReferencesBajgain, S., Shakya, I.
Page 362 and 363: IntroductionElectricity has become
Page 366 and 367: Hilmand provinces have comparativel
Page 368 and 369: ….. eq. 5LCOE is the net present
Page 370 and 371: case of Nepal, it is 5% (Trading ec
Page 372 and 373: ing down the cost of solar PV modul
Page 374 and 375: 3.3 Serving the rural areas with na
Page 376 and 377: The levelized costs of electricity
Page 378 and 379: Figure 4. Variation in LCOE with si
Page 380 and 381: The analysis reveals that fuel cost
Page 382 and 383: In case of DG, we have looked with
Page 384 and 385: Gross, R., Blyth, W., Heptonstall,
Page 386 and 387: Mode of Transport to Work, Car Owne
Page 388 and 389: power parity (PPP) basis, GDP per c
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Page 392 and 393: other purposes so that reduced fare
Page 394 and 395: emissions studies is that they were
Page 396 and 397: where I (·) is the indicator funct
Page 398 and 399: increases, individuals acquire more
Page 400 and 401: while that of other means of transp
Page 402 and 403: into CO 2 . For all oil and oil pro
Page 404 and 405: impact. In general, income is found
Page 406 and 407: 7 ReferenceAlperovich, G., Deutsch,
Page 408 and 409: Table 1: Definitions of Variables a
Page 410 and 411: Session 13 - Energy StorageRisø In
Page 412 and 413: 2 Storage demand and resulting stor
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compressed air storages, demand sit
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Fig. 3: Options for underground sto
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3.5 Geological potential in EuropeF
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Sensitivity on Battery Prices and C
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3.1 Base caseA northern European en
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4 ResultsThe model is run on a comp
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Furthermore, a slight decrease in t
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Night time charging increases with
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Lithuanian Energy Institute, PSE In
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atteries, Compressed Air Energy Sto
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negative net load, can be expected
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25%Pct. of the year20%15%10%5%0.5-0
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800006000040000MWh200000Netload-200
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[4] B. V. Mathiesen and H. Lund, "C
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Compressed Air Energy Storage in Of
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compressed air caverns, corrosion-r
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Figure 3: Distribution of salt depo
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Figure 6: EWEA's 20 year Offshore N
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spinning reserves can be provided b
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7 Discussion and conclusionsThis pa
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Risø DTU is the National Laborator
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