Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

In general, if the CCS technology develops as expected, then it will become an importantsolution for the global power system, covering around 50% of global power production.In China, CCS will be even more important if the country’s economy and industrialproduction continues to grow throughout the century. All regions in the model utilizeCCS to some extent. In scenario 1b (Mitigation Default), more than 2,000 Gt CO 2 isstored worldwide over the next century. About half of this is projected to be stored inChina: scenario 1b (Mitigation Default) and 3b (Mitigation Optimistic) 50%; scenario 2b(Mitigation Pessimistic) 46%. The utilization of CCS worldwide and in China is notlimited by a lack of storage capacity. In scenario 2b where the expected storage capacityis halved, still only 28% of the world storage capacity and 58% of the capacity in Chinais utilized (Table 3).Table 3: Percentage of storage capacity used for the period 2005 to 2100.CO 2 StorageCapacity UsedScenario 1b(MitigationDefault)Scenario 2b(MitigationPessimistic)Scenario 3b(MitigationOptimistic)China 35% 58% 18%World 16% 28% 8%In scenario 3b (Mitigation Optimistic), the storage capacity is very large and theefficiency loss of the power plants due to the capture process is assumed to be muchlower than it is currently. Still, the use of CCS does not increase much and only 2% moreCO 2 is stored versus scenario 1b (Mitigation Default) (both for China and worldwide).Compared to scenario 2b (Mitigation Pessimistic) the increase is 25% for China and 16%worldwide. Therefore, the percentage of storage capacity utilized in scenario 3b(Mitigation Optimistic) is low when compared to the two other mitigation scenarios.Figure 4 shows how much of the biomass potential is utilized. In China, the model’smitigation options are constrained by the available biomass resources already by midcentury. Even in the reference scenario (1a), the model uses 90% of the availablebiomass at the end of the century in China. Taking the world as a whole, mitigationoptions are not constrained by limited biomass availability. However, a large share of theglobal potential for biomass is consumed; even without an emissions constraint, morethan 70% of the global annual biomass potential is used at the end of the century. Again,it is assumed within TIAM that biomass is consumed domestically and not traded acrossregions.100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%1a Ref1b Mit Default1c Mit No CCS2b Mit Pessimistic3b Mit Optimisitic2020 2050 2080 2100Global Biomass Utilization100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%1a Ref1b Mit Default1c Mit No CCS2b Mit Pessimistic3b Mit Optimisitic2020 2050 2080 2100China Biomass UtilizationFigure 4 Share of biomass potential utilized. World (left) and China (right).The share of biomass in primary energy consumption is shown in Figure 5. The fall seenin China is due to the combination of a rapidly increasing energy demand and theexhaustion of the annual biomass potential. Furthermore, in China, biomass plays7Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 264