Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

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In general, if the CCS technology develops as expected, then it will become an importantsolution for the global power system, covering around 50% of global power production.In China, CCS will be even more important if the country’s economy and industrialproduction continues to grow throughout the century. All regions in the model utilizeCCS to some extent. In scenario 1b (Mitigation Default), more than 2,000 Gt CO 2 isstored worldwide over the next century. About half of this is projected to be stored inChina: scenario 1b (Mitigation Default) and 3b (Mitigation Optimistic) 50%; scenario 2b(Mitigation Pessimistic) 46%. The utilization of CCS worldwide and in China is notlimited by a lack of storage capacity. In scenario 2b where the expected storage capacityis halved, still only 28% of the world storage capacity and 58% of the capacity in Chinais utilized (Table 3).Table 3: Percentage of storage capacity used for the period 2005 to 2100.CO 2 StorageCapacity UsedScenario 1b(MitigationDefault)Scenario 2b(MitigationPessimistic)Scenario 3b(MitigationOptimistic)China 35% 58% 18%World 16% 28% 8%In scenario 3b (Mitigation Optimistic), the storage capacity is very large and theefficiency loss of the power plants due to the capture process is assumed to be muchlower than it is currently. Still, the use of CCS does not increase much and only 2% moreCO 2 is stored versus scenario 1b (Mitigation Default) (both for China and worldwide).Compared to scenario 2b (Mitigation Pessimistic) the increase is 25% for China and 16%worldwide. Therefore, the percentage of storage capacity utilized in scenario 3b(Mitigation Optimistic) is low when compared to the two other mitigation scenarios.Figure 4 shows how much of the biomass potential is utilized. In China, the model’smitigation options are constrained by the available biomass resources already by midcentury. Even in the reference scenario (1a), the model uses 90% of the availablebiomass at the end of the century in China. Taking the world as a whole, mitigationoptions are not constrained by limited biomass availability. However, a large share of theglobal potential for biomass is consumed; even without an emissions constraint, morethan 70% of the global annual biomass potential is used at the end of the century. Again,it is assumed within TIAM that biomass is consumed domestically and not traded acrossregions.100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%1a Ref1b Mit Default1c Mit No CCS2b Mit Pessimistic3b Mit Optimisitic2020 2050 2080 2100Global Biomass Utilization100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%1a Ref1b Mit Default1c Mit No CCS2b Mit Pessimistic3b Mit Optimisitic2020 2050 2080 2100China Biomass UtilizationFigure 4 Share of biomass potential utilized. World (left) and China (right).The share of biomass in primary energy consumption is shown in Figure 5. The fall seenin China is due to the combination of a rapidly increasing energy demand and theexhaustion of the annual biomass potential. Furthermore, in China, biomass plays7Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 264
virtually no role in the power sector – the share stays below 1.5% in all periods and allscenarios, apart from a short peak towards 2% around 2070-2080 in 3b (MitigationOptimistic).30%25%20%30%25%20%Share of Biomassin Primary EnergyConsumption, China1a Ref1b Mit Default1c Mit No CCS2b Mit Pessimistic3b Mit Optimistic15%15%10%5%0%Share of Biomassin Primary EnergyConsumption, World1a Ref1b Mit Default1c Mit No CCS2b Mit Pessimistic3b Mit Optimistic10%5%0%200520072012202020302040205020602070208020902100200520072012202020302040205020602070208020902100Figure 5 Biomass’ share in primary energy consumption. World (left) and China (right).Throughout the century, biomass plays a substantial role in the transport sector both inChina and globally. As Figure 5 shows, this is the case in all scenarios, but in particularin 1c (Mitigation No CCS), where mitigation options are constrained because of anexclusion of CCS.50%40%30%1c Mit No CCS3b Mit Optimistic1b Mit Default2b Mit Pessimistic1a RefShare of Biofuelsin Transportation (World)50%40%30%1c Mit No CCS3b Mit Optimistic1b Mit Default2b Mit Pessimistic1a RefShare of Biofuelsin Transportation (China)20%20%10%10%0%0%200520072012202020302040205020602070208020902100200520072012202020302040205020602070208020902100Figure 6 Share of biofuels in transport sector’s energy consumption. World (left) andChina (right).4. ConclusionThis paper provides some insight into how much China can rely on biomass and CCStechnology when taking part in a global effort to mitigate climate change. While allenergy technologies and resources are also included in this type of integrated assessmentmodeling, we have focused on how China could use biomass and CCS optimally to curbemissions.The underlying economic growth in China causes a dramatic increase in Chinese energydemand until 2100 (final energy demand grows 500-600% from 2010 to 2100). Thisgives a lot of pressure on domestic renewable resources such as biomass, wind, and solarPV. Even with optimistic assumptions on future biomass availability (scenario 3b), it canonly cover around 10% of the Chinese primary energy consumption in 2050 and around5% in 2100. Most of the available biomass in China is optimally used in the transportsector, thereby favoring fossil CCS over BECCS.CCS on coal and natural gas based power plants are key technologies for China in anemissions constrained world. The CCS storage potential in China is not a limiting factor.Even with the pessimistic assumptions on the size of storage (2b), our findings show that8Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 265
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Energy Systems and Technologies for
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ContentsSessions overview 1Programm
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sessions overview08:00-09:00Coffee
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11:00 - 12:30 session 6A - Bioenerg
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ContactSustainable Energy, Technica
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Penetration of new energy technolog
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how decisions are made and by whom
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(9) is the logaritimic expansion of
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(16)we may finally write Eq(14) in
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Table 1: Fast track cases for new r
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Peterka V. Macrodynamics of technol
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Growth in clean and reliable energy
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Conclusion - an ambitious vision an
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"Spurring investments in renewable
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Integrating climate change adaptati
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transport, and finance. Energy prov
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northern South America, the Caribbe
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Table 1: Energy system adaptation s
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More generally, a number of no- or
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6 ReferencesADB, 2005. Climate proo
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Sailor, D.J., Smith, M., Hart, M.,
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Factors affecting stakeholder perce
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Another study conducted in Japan wa
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4 The effect of information on stak
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Furthermore, communication to stake
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Shackley S, McLachlan C, Gough C (2
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Figure 1: Potential CO 2 storage si
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The Upper Jurassic - Lower Cretaceo
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The majority of the individual stru
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Development. Project no. ENK6-CT-19
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Section 5 summarises the key issue
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Table 1. Efficiencies for new large
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In addition, district heating syste
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6.4 Model results from EFDA-TIMESIn
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Maisonnier, D., et al. (2007), Powe
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1Efficiency and effectiveness of pr
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3Stromerzeugung [TWh/a]250200150100
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54 Country-specific Lessons learned
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7100%90%80%quota fullfilment (%)70%
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[5] Haas R., et al: Efficiency and
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The development and diffusion of re
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a. Offshore wind in DenmarkDenmark
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applicants are invited to submit a
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nies that provide upstream and down
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for both technology users and produ
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Trade Disputes over Renewable Energ
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treatment to imported renewable ene
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In Canada, the federal government i
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grid access, subsidies and land off
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In 2010, China’s total wind insta
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Source: Renewables 2010 Global Stat
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Source: REN 21, Renewables 2010 Glo
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Source: adapted from REN21, 2010It
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their precise scope and nature diff
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60 daysBy 2 nd DSBmeetingConsultati
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discriminatory manner on domestic a
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the European Union, the North Ameri
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ended. China lost this case because
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As most countries in the world are
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Session 3A - Energy SystemsRisø In
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1 IntroductionWith the introduction
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occur. This is an undesirably burea
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This curve could be used as a new t
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ut for the total consumption, and i
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This gives the LBR an opportunity t
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concludes that the subsurface conta
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to constrain the evaluation. In add
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Fig. 2 SW-NE trending seismic profi
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Fig. 5. Petrophysical evaluation of
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ConclusionsThe Danish subsurface co
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Performance of Space Heating in aMo
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[5],[10],[11],[16],[18],[20],[26].
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2/3 Sun1 Coal1/3 ElPower plantHP1 H
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25002000Surplus(min(wind,prod-cons)
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160CO 2 emission per unit heat prod
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The calculations have been based on
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Session 3B - smart gridsRisø Inter
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2 Myopic Investments2.1 The Balmore
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Moreover, this model is formulated
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Reducing Electricity Demand Peaks b
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3 Event Driven Scheduling Algorithm
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5 Mapping Teletraffic Theory to Ene
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6.2 Results and Performance Metrics
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Energy Efficient Refrigeration and
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Virtual Power PlantAggregatorSuperm
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C p,rC p,fT rT fW cφ sT a(UA) raHe
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Total PowerP.G. #1P.G. #2C.R. #1201
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the availability payment.Simulation
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The constraint in Eq. (16) has the
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The FlexControl concept - a vision,
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can react on requests for power reg
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3 ControlThe concept is based solel
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one hour to the next - correspondin
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4 ProtectionThe protection of the p
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Session 4 - Efficiency Improvements
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the product portfolio point of view
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Figure 4: Principle flow sheet of t
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process information needed are seld
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AIRFINE®(Reference)MEROS®Ca(OH)2M
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4 Conclusion & DiscussionThe Eco-Ca
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1 Energy policy and EU directivesTh
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iomass CHP, heat pumps, electric bo
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Fig. 1: How to supply a growing hea
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Session 5A - Wind Energy IRisø Int
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The average cumulative growth rate
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turbines is expected to create a st
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O&MGridWindturbineSubstructureFigur
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Another idea is to harvest energy f
Page 218 and 219: 9. Shimon Awerbuch, Determining the
Page 220 and 221: engaged in wind energy assessment,
Page 222 and 223: treated in such a way to make them
Page 224 and 225: Figure 5: Map showing the estimated
Page 226 and 227: Figure 9: The annual mean power den
Page 228 and 229: mix is required. For example diurna
Page 230 and 231: Session 5B - Wind Energy IIRisø In
Page 232 and 233: TABLE ISOME OF THE WIND TURBINE MAN
Page 234 and 235: China, has prompted all parties, in
Page 236 and 237: to the high shaft speed. Furthermor
Page 238 and 239: Superconductors must be kept cold b
Page 240 and 241: an annual increase in demand of 6%,
Page 242 and 243: Improved High Temperature Supercond
Page 244 and 245: our study to a single set of deposi
Page 246 and 247: 3.2 Yttrium-enriched YBCO thin film
Page 248 and 249: Fig. 5. AC-susceptibility dependenc
Page 250 and 251: The j C (B) dependence at 50 K for
Page 252 and 253: Session 6A - Bioenergy IRisø Inter
Page 254 and 255: The European politicians are faced
Page 256 and 257: The fast growing demand for biomass
Page 258 and 259: Figure 2: Avedøre Power Plant in C
Page 260 and 261: Figure 5: Concept for a sustainable
Page 262 and 263: The role of biomass and CCS in Chin
Page 264 and 265: 2.2.1 CCS Potential for ChinaCCS is
Page 266 and 267: 80%70%60%China's share ofglobal CO
Page 270 and 271: with high implementation of CCS Chi
Page 272 and 273: The European Biofuels Policy: from
Page 274 and 275: aimed to promote agriculture-based
Page 276 and 277: (EC, 2009b), and internationally vi
Page 278 and 279: Session 6B - Bio Energy IIRisø Int
Page 280 and 281: The commercial scale production of
Page 282 and 283: the production process parameters,
Page 284 and 285: NutrientWaterAlgal cultureproductio
Page 286 and 287: Schenk, P.M., Thomas-Hall, S.R., St
Page 288 and 289: Liquid biofuels from blue biomassZs
Page 290 and 291: Even though final ethanol yields we
Page 292 and 293: Integrated Gasification SOFC Plant
Page 294 and 295: 2.1 Modelling of SOFCThe SOFC model
Page 296 and 297: where g 0 , R an T are the specific
Page 298 and 299: hand side y-axis corresponds to eff
Page 300 and 301: The moister content for these three
Page 302 and 303: Use of Methanation for Optimization
Page 304 and 305: power production from utilizing the
Page 306 and 307: 2.1 Model DescriptionThe developed
Page 308 and 309: Figure 3: Flow sheet of methanation
Page 310 and 311: efficiency and turbine inlet temper
Page 312 and 313: [14] DNA - A Thermal Energy System
Page 314 and 315: On the effectiveness of standards v
Page 316 and 317: educing new car emissions to 120 g
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In addition energy consumption E an
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coefficient γ for the impact of fu
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400200Change in energy (PJ)01980 19
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Figure 9 depict scenarios for the f
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What are customers willing to pay f
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Randomly, continuous up to ±50%Acc
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The likelihood for the model is giv
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eally means that this factor and no
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Table 5-1 Parameter estimates from
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Table 6-2 Willingness to pay for 10
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Session 12 - Energy for Developing
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Risø International Energy Conferen
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existing renewable energy technolog
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useful energyend energysecondary en
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parts or the means of enforcing war
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The development of micro-hydro proj
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Table 1. Electric power generation
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5 ReferencesBajgain, S., Shakya, I.
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IntroductionElectricity has become
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of 2008, 43.6% of the total populat
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Hilmand provinces have comparativel
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….. eq. 5LCOE is the net present
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case of Nepal, it is 5% (Trading ec
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ing down the cost of solar PV modul
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3.3 Serving the rural areas with na
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The levelized costs of electricity
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Figure 4. Variation in LCOE with si
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The analysis reveals that fuel cost
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In case of DG, we have looked with
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Gross, R., Blyth, W., Heptonstall,
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Mode of Transport to Work, Car Owne
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power parity (PPP) basis, GDP per c
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83,385 to 109,108 while the number
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other purposes so that reduced fare
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emissions studies is that they were
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where I (·) is the indicator funct
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increases, individuals acquire more
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while that of other means of transp
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into CO 2 . For all oil and oil pro
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impact. In general, income is found
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7 ReferenceAlperovich, G., Deutsch,
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Table 1: Definitions of Variables a
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Session 13 - Energy StorageRisø In
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2 Storage demand and resulting stor
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compressed air storages, demand sit
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Fig. 3: Options for underground sto
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3.5 Geological potential in EuropeF
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Sensitivity on Battery Prices and C
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3.1 Base caseA northern European en
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4 ResultsThe model is run on a comp
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Furthermore, a slight decrease in t
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Night time charging increases with
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Lithuanian Energy Institute, PSE In
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atteries, Compressed Air Energy Sto
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negative net load, can be expected
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25%Pct. of the year20%15%10%5%0.5-0
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800006000040000MWh200000Netload-200
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[4] B. V. Mathiesen and H. Lund, "C
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Compressed Air Energy Storage in Of
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compressed air caverns, corrosion-r
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Figure 3: Distribution of salt depo
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Figure 6: EWEA's 20 year Offshore N
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spinning reserves can be provided b
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7 Discussion and conclusionsThis pa
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Risø DTU is the National Laborator
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