Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

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The role of biomass and CCS in China in aclimate mitigation perspectiveMikael Lüthje, Kenneth Karlsson, Jay Gregg, Tullik Helene Ystanes Føyn, and OlexandrBalyk. All authors are affiliated with Risø DTU, Denmark.AbstractAs the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gasses (GHGs), China plays a central rolein the suite of options for climate change mitigation. To analyze the importance ofbiomass and carbon capture and storage (CCS) availability in China, varying levels ofthese parameters are created and then global climate scenarios are simulated using TIAM(TIMES Integrated Assessment Model). TIAM is a 16-region global energy systemoptimization model that includes a climate module that calculates the globalconcentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere.We analyze the potential for using biomass, CCS, and bioenergy CCS (BECCS) in Chinaunder the constraint of meeting a climate stabilization target such that dangerous climatechange (as defined by the Copenhagen Accord) is avoided. When consideringhypothetical scenarios where GHG emissions are constrained, China consumes allavailable domestic biomass as a relatively inexpensive fuel source. However, whileBECCS does have a small role to play, in general it is cheaper to use biomass for thetransportation sector and CCS with fossil fuel in order to meet both the energy demandand emissions reduction goals in the cheapest way possible.Therefore, we find that while both utilization of biomass and CCS are essential optionsfor reducing emissions in China, BECCS is not the most cost effective option in China.CCS is nevertheless an important option for China; in the climate mitigation scenariosmodeled, by 2050, China is projected to employ CCS on at least 70% of fossil energyelectricity generation. When CCS is excluded, the cost of mitigation is more thandoubled compared to the scenarios where CCS is included as a mitigation option.1. IntroductionReducing the risk of dangerous climate change, defined as an increase in the global meantemperature of 2°C (with the CO 2 concentration not exceeding 443 ppm), will require anambitious effort to reduce net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Participation fromChina is crucially important if we are to achieve this goal. First, China accounts for asubstantial share of the world’s population, economy, and GHG emissions: China has theworld’s largest population and the second largest economy, and has recently become theworld leader in GHG emissions (Gregg et al., 2008). Second, China’s Gross DomesticProduct (GDP), energy consumption and GHG emissions are expected to continue toincrease rapidly in the coming years (Blanford et al. 2008), and this rapid growth inemissions could offset mitigation efforts in other parts of the world, e.g. Annex-I(industrialized) countries (Blanford et al. 2008). Third, because of the speed with whichChina’s energy demand is growing, the country is facing a large challenge in expandingsupply rapidly enough. Domestic coal is currently the most used and most readilyavailable energy supply source (BP, 2010 and International Energy Agency, 2008), but itis a carbon-intensive fuel. Therefore, aligning the security of supply requirements withenvironmental and climate change objectives is a great challenge for China (Zeng et al.2008). Finally, global mitigation costs increase significantly when action is delayed innon-Annex I countries, including China (Clarke et al. 2009). Current Chinese efforts tocombat climate change will therefore be of high importance; avoiding dangerous levels1Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 258
of planetary warming is likely not possible without substantial GHG emissionsreductions from non-Annex I countries, particularly China (Clarke et al. 2009).This paper examines the role of China in global mitigation efforts, and focuses onbiomass, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and bioenergy CCS (BECCS). BECCS hasthe potential to yield net-negative emissions, yet biomass resources are a limiting factorin the amount this option can be deployed. For the purpose of analyzing China’s role inglobal mitigation efforts, this paper employs a global energy system optimization model(TIAM) with various estimates for future biomass potential and carbon dioxide (CO 2 )storage capacity in China. The model is used to simulate the economically optimalinvestment path for the global energy system such that atmospheric concentrations ofGHGs are stabilized at a point where the increase in global mean temperature remainsbelow or close to 2°C. Different scenarios will be investigated testing differentassumptions for biomass potential, available storage volume for CO 2 , and efficiency andcosts of CCS technology.2. Methodology2.1 The TIAM modelThe TIMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM) is a detailed, technology-rich globalTIMES 1 model. The structure and data come from the MARKAL-based SAGE modeldeveloped by the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy.Detailed information about the development of TIAM, its structure, existing databasesand application can be found in Loulou and Labriet (2008), Loulou (2008), and Loulouet al. (2009).TIAM is a partial equilibrium model, where equilibrium on energy markets is found viaminimization of total discounted cost, or equivalently maximization of total surplus (sumof consumer and producer surplus), using linear programming. It is a model of the entireglobal energy system, i.e. from primary resource extraction to end-use. Fuel prices areendogenous. TIAM has a climate module with climate equations calculating GHGconcentration levels in the atmosphere and oceans, consequential change in radiativeforcing, and change in global mean temperature. Thus, the model and hence the energysystem can be optimized for various climate targets. Given such a target, the model willfind a solution where marginal costs of reducing GHG emissions are equal across all ofthe constrained regions. The TIAM version used for this paper is global, with 16 regions(including, China) and the time horizon is 2100.2.2 Climate scenariosIn a hypothetical climate policy scenario, we assume that the world society has agreed onpreventing the increase in global mean temperature from exceeding 2°C. This is reflectedin the integrated assessment model by following the GHG emission trajectory fromIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) RCP3-PD emission scenario. RCPsare Representative Concentration Pathways, scenarios developed for the IPCC FifthAssessment Report (AR5) (Van Vuuren et al., 2007). In the RCP3-PD scenario the CO 2concentration peaks just after 2050 and decreases then to 421 ppm in the year 2100. Onlythe CO 2 pathway is included in the following analysis since the majority of CH 4 and N 2 Oemissions reductions are handled exogenously in TIAM. The reference scenarios haveexogenously defined economic growth rates for the various regions in TIAM and includeno climate constraint.1 TIMES refers to both a model generator and a family of models. Further information is available athttp://www.etsap.org/tools/TIMES.htm.2Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 259
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Energy Systems and Technologies for
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ContentsSessions overview 1Programm
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sessions overview08:00-09:00Coffee
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11:00 - 12:30 session 6A - Bioenerg
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ContactSustainable Energy, Technica
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Penetration of new energy technolog
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how decisions are made and by whom
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(9) is the logaritimic expansion of
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(16)we may finally write Eq(14) in
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Table 1: Fast track cases for new r
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Peterka V. Macrodynamics of technol
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Growth in clean and reliable energy
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Conclusion - an ambitious vision an
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"Spurring investments in renewable
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Integrating climate change adaptati
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transport, and finance. Energy prov
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northern South America, the Caribbe
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Table 1: Energy system adaptation s
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More generally, a number of no- or
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6 ReferencesADB, 2005. Climate proo
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Sailor, D.J., Smith, M., Hart, M.,
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Factors affecting stakeholder perce
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Another study conducted in Japan wa
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4 The effect of information on stak
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Furthermore, communication to stake
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Shackley S, McLachlan C, Gough C (2
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Figure 1: Potential CO 2 storage si
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The Upper Jurassic - Lower Cretaceo
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The majority of the individual stru
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Development. Project no. ENK6-CT-19
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Section 5 summarises the key issue
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Table 1. Efficiencies for new large
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In addition, district heating syste
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6.4 Model results from EFDA-TIMESIn
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Maisonnier, D., et al. (2007), Powe
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1Efficiency and effectiveness of pr
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3Stromerzeugung [TWh/a]250200150100
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54 Country-specific Lessons learned
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7100%90%80%quota fullfilment (%)70%
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[5] Haas R., et al: Efficiency and
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The development and diffusion of re
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a. Offshore wind in DenmarkDenmark
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applicants are invited to submit a
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nies that provide upstream and down
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for both technology users and produ
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Trade Disputes over Renewable Energ
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treatment to imported renewable ene
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In Canada, the federal government i
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grid access, subsidies and land off
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In 2010, China’s total wind insta
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Source: Renewables 2010 Global Stat
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Source: REN 21, Renewables 2010 Glo
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Source: adapted from REN21, 2010It
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their precise scope and nature diff
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60 daysBy 2 nd DSBmeetingConsultati
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discriminatory manner on domestic a
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the European Union, the North Ameri
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ended. China lost this case because
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As most countries in the world are
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Session 3A - Energy SystemsRisø In
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1 IntroductionWith the introduction
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occur. This is an undesirably burea
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This curve could be used as a new t
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ut for the total consumption, and i
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This gives the LBR an opportunity t
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concludes that the subsurface conta
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to constrain the evaluation. In add
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Fig. 2 SW-NE trending seismic profi
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Fig. 5. Petrophysical evaluation of
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ConclusionsThe Danish subsurface co
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Performance of Space Heating in aMo
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[5],[10],[11],[16],[18],[20],[26].
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2/3 Sun1 Coal1/3 ElPower plantHP1 H
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25002000Surplus(min(wind,prod-cons)
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160CO 2 emission per unit heat prod
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The calculations have been based on
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Session 3B - smart gridsRisø Inter
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2 Myopic Investments2.1 The Balmore
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Moreover, this model is formulated
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Reducing Electricity Demand Peaks b
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3 Event Driven Scheduling Algorithm
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5 Mapping Teletraffic Theory to Ene
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6.2 Results and Performance Metrics
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Energy Efficient Refrigeration and
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Virtual Power PlantAggregatorSuperm
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C p,rC p,fT rT fW cφ sT a(UA) raHe
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Total PowerP.G. #1P.G. #2C.R. #1201
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the availability payment.Simulation
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The constraint in Eq. (16) has the
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The FlexControl concept - a vision,
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can react on requests for power reg
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3 ControlThe concept is based solel
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one hour to the next - correspondin
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4 ProtectionThe protection of the p
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Session 4 - Efficiency Improvements
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the product portfolio point of view
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Figure 4: Principle flow sheet of t
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process information needed are seld
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AIRFINE®(Reference)MEROS®Ca(OH)2M
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4 Conclusion & DiscussionThe Eco-Ca
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1 Energy policy and EU directivesTh
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iomass CHP, heat pumps, electric bo
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Fig. 1: How to supply a growing hea
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Session 5A - Wind Energy IRisø Int
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The average cumulative growth rate
Page 212 and 213: turbines is expected to create a st
Page 214 and 215: O&MGridWindturbineSubstructureFigur
Page 216 and 217: Another idea is to harvest energy f
Page 218 and 219: 9. Shimon Awerbuch, Determining the
Page 220 and 221: engaged in wind energy assessment,
Page 222 and 223: treated in such a way to make them
Page 224 and 225: Figure 5: Map showing the estimated
Page 226 and 227: Figure 9: The annual mean power den
Page 228 and 229: mix is required. For example diurna
Page 230 and 231: Session 5B - Wind Energy IIRisø In
Page 232 and 233: TABLE ISOME OF THE WIND TURBINE MAN
Page 234 and 235: China, has prompted all parties, in
Page 236 and 237: to the high shaft speed. Furthermor
Page 238 and 239: Superconductors must be kept cold b
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Page 242 and 243: Improved High Temperature Supercond
Page 244 and 245: our study to a single set of deposi
Page 246 and 247: 3.2 Yttrium-enriched YBCO thin film
Page 248 and 249: Fig. 5. AC-susceptibility dependenc
Page 250 and 251: The j C (B) dependence at 50 K for
Page 252 and 253: Session 6A - Bioenergy IRisø Inter
Page 254 and 255: The European politicians are faced
Page 256 and 257: The fast growing demand for biomass
Page 258 and 259: Figure 2: Avedøre Power Plant in C
Page 260 and 261: Figure 5: Concept for a sustainable
Page 264 and 265: 2.2.1 CCS Potential for ChinaCCS is
Page 266 and 267: 80%70%60%China's share ofglobal CO
Page 268 and 269: In general, if the CCS technology d
Page 270 and 271: with high implementation of CCS Chi
Page 272 and 273: The European Biofuels Policy: from
Page 274 and 275: aimed to promote agriculture-based
Page 276 and 277: (EC, 2009b), and internationally vi
Page 278 and 279: Session 6B - Bio Energy IIRisø Int
Page 280 and 281: The commercial scale production of
Page 282 and 283: the production process parameters,
Page 284 and 285: NutrientWaterAlgal cultureproductio
Page 286 and 287: Schenk, P.M., Thomas-Hall, S.R., St
Page 288 and 289: Liquid biofuels from blue biomassZs
Page 290 and 291: Even though final ethanol yields we
Page 292 and 293: Integrated Gasification SOFC Plant
Page 294 and 295: 2.1 Modelling of SOFCThe SOFC model
Page 296 and 297: where g 0 , R an T are the specific
Page 298 and 299: hand side y-axis corresponds to eff
Page 300 and 301: The moister content for these three
Page 302 and 303: Use of Methanation for Optimization
Page 304 and 305: power production from utilizing the
Page 306 and 307: 2.1 Model DescriptionThe developed
Page 308 and 309: Figure 3: Flow sheet of methanation
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[14] DNA - A Thermal Energy System
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On the effectiveness of standards v
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educing new car emissions to 120 g
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In addition energy consumption E an
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coefficient γ for the impact of fu
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400200Change in energy (PJ)01980 19
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Figure 9 depict scenarios for the f
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What are customers willing to pay f
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Randomly, continuous up to ±50%Acc
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The likelihood for the model is giv
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eally means that this factor and no
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Table 5-1 Parameter estimates from
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Table 6-2 Willingness to pay for 10
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Session 12 - Energy for Developing
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Risø International Energy Conferen
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existing renewable energy technolog
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useful energyend energysecondary en
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parts or the means of enforcing war
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The development of micro-hydro proj
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Table 1. Electric power generation
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5 ReferencesBajgain, S., Shakya, I.
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IntroductionElectricity has become
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of 2008, 43.6% of the total populat
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Hilmand provinces have comparativel
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….. eq. 5LCOE is the net present
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case of Nepal, it is 5% (Trading ec
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ing down the cost of solar PV modul
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3.3 Serving the rural areas with na
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The levelized costs of electricity
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Figure 4. Variation in LCOE with si
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The analysis reveals that fuel cost
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In case of DG, we have looked with
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Gross, R., Blyth, W., Heptonstall,
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Mode of Transport to Work, Car Owne
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power parity (PPP) basis, GDP per c
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83,385 to 109,108 while the number
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other purposes so that reduced fare
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emissions studies is that they were
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where I (·) is the indicator funct
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increases, individuals acquire more
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while that of other means of transp
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into CO 2 . For all oil and oil pro
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impact. In general, income is found
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7 ReferenceAlperovich, G., Deutsch,
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Table 1: Definitions of Variables a
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Session 13 - Energy StorageRisø In
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2 Storage demand and resulting stor
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compressed air storages, demand sit
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Fig. 3: Options for underground sto
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3.5 Geological potential in EuropeF
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Sensitivity on Battery Prices and C
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3.1 Base caseA northern European en
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4 ResultsThe model is run on a comp
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Furthermore, a slight decrease in t
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Night time charging increases with
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Lithuanian Energy Institute, PSE In
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atteries, Compressed Air Energy Sto
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negative net load, can be expected
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25%Pct. of the year20%15%10%5%0.5-0
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800006000040000MWh200000Netload-200
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[4] B. V. Mathiesen and H. Lund, "C
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Compressed Air Energy Storage in Of
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compressed air caverns, corrosion-r
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Figure 3: Distribution of salt depo
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Figure 6: EWEA's 20 year Offshore N
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spinning reserves can be provided b
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7 Discussion and conclusionsThis pa
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Risø DTU is the National Laborator
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