Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

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ing down the cost of solar PV modules from $600/Wp to $5/Wp while overallefficiency improved three fold (Erickson and Chapman, 1995). The cost of solar PVsystem has been come down with the technological learning-by-doing and economies ofscale (Ferioli et al., 2009). The technological learning rate of solar PV modules over thelast 20 years varied from 18% to 23%, which means that there has been a reduction in thecost of the module by 18%–23% per doubling of cumulative installed capacity (Sanden,2005). So with the increase in the learning rate, the LCOE of solar PV system is alsoexpected to go down. The LCOE for wind home system is varying significantly (0.46-3.2USD/kWh) depending upon the wind speed. The wind energy market in Nepal is on thevery primitive level and there are very few companies that manufacture the wind turbineat the local level. This cost also could go significantly down in case of the expansion ofthe market in the future. So, some initial support in terms of technical and financialassistance deemed necessary for the wind sector to form the market infrastructure.3.2 Levelized cost for Micro Hydro (MH) PlantsMicro hydro is very site specific technology and the cost may vary a lot depending uponthe physical features of the major components namely civil components like water way,electromechanical equipment like turbine, generator, load controller, protection systemand electrical transmission distribution system. In general, the study has shown that costof the MH projects decrease with the size of the plants (Mainali and Silveira, 2011).The average installation cost of typical 25 kW and 50 kW size micro hydro projects wereadopted for the reference for both the case of Nepal and Afghanistan. Operation andmaintenance cost (O & M cost) has been assumed 5% of the installation cost. Small andminor replacement may be needed in the power plant during its life span, but small hydropower can be operated its full life span without any major replacement cost (Lako, 2010).These small replacement cost are taken into account in the regular operational andmaintenance cost. Normally, construction of micro hydro may take 1.5 to 2.5 years. Inthis analysis, we have assumed that the construction period is 2 years with equaldistribution of the investment for both two years. The other assumptions regarding plantavailability factor, load factor for islanded mode and life span of the projects arementioned in Table 2.Table 2: Information on cost and other parameters for different size MH projects (2010)Countries Nepal AfghanistanDescription /Plant Size 25 kW 50 kW 25 kW 50 kWInstallation cost per kW 2.8-3.5 2.5-3.0 3.0-4.0 2.5-3.5in 000 USDYearly O & M cost interms of total project cost5% 5% 5% 5%Availability factor 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9Load factor 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.25Life span 20 20 20 20Levelized cost in USD/kWh 0.28-0.35 0.25-0.30 0.50-0.67 0.34-0.47Data Source: RRESCs, ESAP, Nepal and MRRD/UNDP, Afghanistan.Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 368
The Levelized costs were varying within 0.28-0.35 USD/kWh for the plant of 25 kW and0.25-0.30 USD/kWh for the plant size of 50 kW in case of Nepal. In other hand, thelevelized costs in the case of Afghanistan were higher compared to Nepal. The LCOEwere varying from 0.50-0.67 USD/kWh for the plant of 25 kW and 0.34-0.47 USD/kWhfor 50 kW plant. This shows that the variation of LCOE with the size of the technology isinsignificant rather it varies mainly with the initial capital cost forconstruction/installation of project, and this can vary significantly in case of MH projectsdepending upon the site specific conditions. The higher LCOE in case of Afghanistan isdue to high installation cost per kW and comparatively low average load factors.Sensitivity AnalysisSensitivity analysis gives the scenario on how the changes in particular parameter impactthe cost analysis of different generation technologies. The variation of LCOE with loadfactor has analyzed in this section. The sensitivity analysis has been done for a 25 kWmicro hydro project with higher range of cost per kW.Figure 2: Variation in LCOE from MH project with change in load factor.Figure 2 shows that LCOE decreases when the load factor increases. The sensitivity ofLCOE is high with the load factor below 40%. Once load factor crosses 40%, thevariation in LCOE is less significant as that of in the low load factors. Normally, therural electrification is characterized by low load factor resulting in high LCOE. So, theproductive end uses promotion in the rural electrification projects is important formaking these projects financially attractive.Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 369
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Energy Systems and Technologies for
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ContentsSessions overview 1Programm
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sessions overview08:00-09:00Coffee
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11:00 - 12:30 session 6A - Bioenerg
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ContactSustainable Energy, Technica
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Penetration of new energy technolog
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how decisions are made and by whom
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(9) is the logaritimic expansion of
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(16)we may finally write Eq(14) in
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Table 1: Fast track cases for new r
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Peterka V. Macrodynamics of technol
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Growth in clean and reliable energy
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Conclusion - an ambitious vision an
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"Spurring investments in renewable
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Integrating climate change adaptati
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transport, and finance. Energy prov
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northern South America, the Caribbe
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Table 1: Energy system adaptation s
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More generally, a number of no- or
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6 ReferencesADB, 2005. Climate proo
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Sailor, D.J., Smith, M., Hart, M.,
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Factors affecting stakeholder perce
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Another study conducted in Japan wa
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4 The effect of information on stak
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Furthermore, communication to stake
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Shackley S, McLachlan C, Gough C (2
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Figure 1: Potential CO 2 storage si
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The Upper Jurassic - Lower Cretaceo
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The majority of the individual stru
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Development. Project no. ENK6-CT-19
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Section 5 summarises the key issue
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Table 1. Efficiencies for new large
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In addition, district heating syste
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6.4 Model results from EFDA-TIMESIn
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Maisonnier, D., et al. (2007), Powe
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1Efficiency and effectiveness of pr
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3Stromerzeugung [TWh/a]250200150100
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54 Country-specific Lessons learned
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7100%90%80%quota fullfilment (%)70%
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[5] Haas R., et al: Efficiency and
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The development and diffusion of re
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a. Offshore wind in DenmarkDenmark
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applicants are invited to submit a
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nies that provide upstream and down
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for both technology users and produ
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Trade Disputes over Renewable Energ
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treatment to imported renewable ene
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In Canada, the federal government i
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grid access, subsidies and land off
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In 2010, China’s total wind insta
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Source: Renewables 2010 Global Stat
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Source: REN 21, Renewables 2010 Glo
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Source: adapted from REN21, 2010It
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their precise scope and nature diff
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60 daysBy 2 nd DSBmeetingConsultati
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discriminatory manner on domestic a
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the European Union, the North Ameri
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ended. China lost this case because
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As most countries in the world are
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Session 3A - Energy SystemsRisø In
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1 IntroductionWith the introduction
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occur. This is an undesirably burea
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This curve could be used as a new t
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ut for the total consumption, and i
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This gives the LBR an opportunity t
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concludes that the subsurface conta
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to constrain the evaluation. In add
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Fig. 2 SW-NE trending seismic profi
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Fig. 5. Petrophysical evaluation of
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ConclusionsThe Danish subsurface co
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Performance of Space Heating in aMo
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[5],[10],[11],[16],[18],[20],[26].
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2/3 Sun1 Coal1/3 ElPower plantHP1 H
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25002000Surplus(min(wind,prod-cons)
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160CO 2 emission per unit heat prod
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The calculations have been based on
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Session 3B - smart gridsRisø Inter
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2 Myopic Investments2.1 The Balmore
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Moreover, this model is formulated
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Reducing Electricity Demand Peaks b
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3 Event Driven Scheduling Algorithm
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5 Mapping Teletraffic Theory to Ene
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6.2 Results and Performance Metrics
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Energy Efficient Refrigeration and
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Virtual Power PlantAggregatorSuperm
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C p,rC p,fT rT fW cφ sT a(UA) raHe
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Total PowerP.G. #1P.G. #2C.R. #1201
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the availability payment.Simulation
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The constraint in Eq. (16) has the
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The FlexControl concept - a vision,
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can react on requests for power reg
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3 ControlThe concept is based solel
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one hour to the next - correspondin
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4 ProtectionThe protection of the p
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Session 4 - Efficiency Improvements
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the product portfolio point of view
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Figure 4: Principle flow sheet of t
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process information needed are seld
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AIRFINE®(Reference)MEROS®Ca(OH)2M
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4 Conclusion & DiscussionThe Eco-Ca
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1 Energy policy and EU directivesTh
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iomass CHP, heat pumps, electric bo
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Fig. 1: How to supply a growing hea
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Session 5A - Wind Energy IRisø Int
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The average cumulative growth rate
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turbines is expected to create a st
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O&MGridWindturbineSubstructureFigur
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Another idea is to harvest energy f
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9. Shimon Awerbuch, Determining the
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engaged in wind energy assessment,
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treated in such a way to make them
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Figure 5: Map showing the estimated
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Figure 9: The annual mean power den
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mix is required. For example diurna
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Session 5B - Wind Energy IIRisø In
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TABLE ISOME OF THE WIND TURBINE MAN
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China, has prompted all parties, in
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to the high shaft speed. Furthermor
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Superconductors must be kept cold b
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an annual increase in demand of 6%,
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Improved High Temperature Supercond
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our study to a single set of deposi
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3.2 Yttrium-enriched YBCO thin film
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Fig. 5. AC-susceptibility dependenc
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The j C (B) dependence at 50 K for
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Session 6A - Bioenergy IRisø Inter
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The European politicians are faced
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The fast growing demand for biomass
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Figure 2: Avedøre Power Plant in C
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Figure 5: Concept for a sustainable
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The role of biomass and CCS in Chin
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2.2.1 CCS Potential for ChinaCCS is
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80%70%60%China's share ofglobal CO
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In general, if the CCS technology d
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with high implementation of CCS Chi
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The European Biofuels Policy: from
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aimed to promote agriculture-based
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(EC, 2009b), and internationally vi
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Session 6B - Bio Energy IIRisø Int
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The commercial scale production of
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the production process parameters,
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NutrientWaterAlgal cultureproductio
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Schenk, P.M., Thomas-Hall, S.R., St
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Liquid biofuels from blue biomassZs
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Even though final ethanol yields we
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Integrated Gasification SOFC Plant
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2.1 Modelling of SOFCThe SOFC model
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where g 0 , R an T are the specific
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hand side y-axis corresponds to eff
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The moister content for these three
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Use of Methanation for Optimization
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power production from utilizing the
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2.1 Model DescriptionThe developed
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Figure 3: Flow sheet of methanation
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efficiency and turbine inlet temper
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[14] DNA - A Thermal Energy System
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On the effectiveness of standards v
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educing new car emissions to 120 g
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In addition energy consumption E an
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coefficient γ for the impact of fu
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Page 324 and 325: Figure 9 depict scenarios for the f
Page 326 and 327: What are customers willing to pay f
Page 328 and 329: Randomly, continuous up to ±50%Acc
Page 330 and 331: The likelihood for the model is giv
Page 332 and 333: eally means that this factor and no
Page 334 and 335: Table 5-1 Parameter estimates from
Page 336 and 337: Table 6-2 Willingness to pay for 10
Page 338 and 339: Session 12 - Energy for Developing
Page 340 and 341: Risø International Energy Conferen
Page 350 and 351: existing renewable energy technolog
Page 352 and 353: useful energyend energysecondary en
Page 354 and 355: parts or the means of enforcing war
Page 356 and 357: The development of micro-hydro proj
Page 358 and 359: Table 1. Electric power generation
Page 360 and 361: 5 ReferencesBajgain, S., Shakya, I.
Page 362 and 363: IntroductionElectricity has become
Page 364 and 365: of 2008, 43.6% of the total populat
Page 366 and 367: Hilmand provinces have comparativel
Page 368 and 369: ….. eq. 5LCOE is the net present
Page 370 and 371: case of Nepal, it is 5% (Trading ec
Page 374 and 375: 3.3 Serving the rural areas with na
Page 376 and 377: The levelized costs of electricity
Page 378 and 379: Figure 4. Variation in LCOE with si
Page 380 and 381: The analysis reveals that fuel cost
Page 382 and 383: In case of DG, we have looked with
Page 384 and 385: Gross, R., Blyth, W., Heptonstall,
Page 386 and 387: Mode of Transport to Work, Car Owne
Page 388 and 389: power parity (PPP) basis, GDP per c
Page 390 and 391: 83,385 to 109,108 while the number
Page 392 and 393: other purposes so that reduced fare
Page 394 and 395: emissions studies is that they were
Page 396 and 397: where I (·) is the indicator funct
Page 398 and 399: increases, individuals acquire more
Page 400 and 401: while that of other means of transp
Page 402 and 403: into CO 2 . For all oil and oil pro
Page 404 and 405: impact. In general, income is found
Page 406 and 407: 7 ReferenceAlperovich, G., Deutsch,
Page 408 and 409: Table 1: Definitions of Variables a
Page 410 and 411: Session 13 - Energy StorageRisø In
Page 412 and 413: 2 Storage demand and resulting stor
Page 414 and 415: compressed air storages, demand sit
Page 416 and 417: Fig. 3: Options for underground sto
Page 418 and 419: 3.5 Geological potential in EuropeF
Page 420 and 421: Sensitivity on Battery Prices and C
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3.1 Base caseA northern European en
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4 ResultsThe model is run on a comp
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Furthermore, a slight decrease in t
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Night time charging increases with
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Lithuanian Energy Institute, PSE In
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atteries, Compressed Air Energy Sto
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negative net load, can be expected
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25%Pct. of the year20%15%10%5%0.5-0
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800006000040000MWh200000Netload-200
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[4] B. V. Mathiesen and H. Lund, "C
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Compressed Air Energy Storage in Of
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compressed air caverns, corrosion-r
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Figure 3: Distribution of salt depo
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Figure 6: EWEA's 20 year Offshore N
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spinning reserves can be provided b
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7 Discussion and conclusionsThis pa
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Risø DTU is the National Laborator
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