Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

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80%70%60%China's share ofglobal CO 2 emissions40%35%30%China's share of global CO 2emission reductions50%25%40%20%30%20%10%0%1a Ref1b Mit Default1c Mit No CCS2b Mit Pessimistic3b Mit Optimistic15%10%5%0%1b Mit Default1c Mit No CCS2b Mit Pessimistic3b Mit Optimistic2005200720122020203020402050206020702080209021002012202020302040205020602070208020902100Figure 1 China’s share of global CO 2 emissions and reductionsBecause the policy scenario is rather stringent, it drives up the price of CO 2 emissions,and increasingly more expensive mitigation options are utilized. Figure 1 plots the CO 2prices over time in the various policy cases. As can be seen, excluding CCS from thetechnology portfolio increases the price of CO 2 by a factor of 6 to meet the stabilizationtarget.USD/tCO 27000600050001b Mit Default1c Mit No CCS2b Mit Pessimistic3b Mit Optimistic400030002000100002012202020302040205020602070208020902100Figure 2 Global CO 2 priceA further indication of the relative difficulty of staying on the stabilization pathway isgiven by changes in total discounted costs of the energy system in the differentmitigation scenarios. In all scenarios, China’s share of the total discounted costs of theglobal energy system is approximately 13%, while its share of the mitigation costs variesbetween approximately 13% and 17%, with the highest share taking place in scenario 2b(Mitigation Pessimistic), where biomass is more limited and plays a smaller role inmitigation.Table 2 shows the relative cost increase of different mitigation scenarios, i.e., increasesin total discounted costs. In scenario 1b (Mitigation Default) and 3b (MitigationOptimistic), China’s total discounted costs rise at approximately the same rate as thetotal global costs. With a low biomass potential (2b), or exclusion of CCS (1c), however,China’s costs increase relatively more than the global cost. When CCS is excluded as amitigation option (1b versus 1c), China’s mitigation costs rise approximately 171%. Incomparison, the corresponding global mitigation costs increase only 118%.5Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 262
Table 2 Relative cost increase of different mitigation scenariosMitigationDefault:1a vs. 1bMitigationNo CCS:1a vs. 1cMitigation costincrease1b vs. 1cMitigationPessimistic:2a vs. 2bMitigationOptimistic:3a vs. 3bChina 5% 15% 171% 7% 4%World 5% 10% 118% 5% 4%When CCS is allowed as a mitigation option, a large share of power generation isprojected to come from power plants equipped with CCS, particularly in China. Figure 3shows the share of the total power production both as world average and for Chinaseparately for the three mitigation scenarios that allow investments in power plants withCCS technology. The graphs also distinguish between the shares on fossil CCS andBECCS.100%90%80%70%60%Share of CCS in Power Production, World3b Mit Optimistic1b Mit Default2b Mit Pessimistic3b Mit Optimistic1b Mit Default2b Mit Pessimistic100%90%80%70%60%Share of CCS in Power Production, China50%50%40%30%20%10%40%30%20%10%3b Mit Optimistic1b Mit Default2b Mit Pessimistic3b Mit Optimistic1b Mit Default2b Mit Pessimistic0%2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 21000%2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Figure 3 Power plants with CCS share of total power production in the world and inChinaBecause the emissions constraint is tight and drives up the carbon price, CCS isprojected to expand quickly in a cost optimized world. Fossil CCS is utilized on nearlyall new non-nuclear thermal power plants beyond 2020 in China, while less so globally.Fossil fuel combustion with CCS is projected to produce around 50% of total globalelectricity in 2100. However, by mid century, over 70% of the electricity in China isproduced from power plants with CCS; and in the optimistic scenario, this increases toover 80% by the end of the century. The electricity demand in China is growingexponentially and therefore the installed power capacity does as well. Under anemissions constraint, CCS is incentivized on new power plants. On the other hand,BECCS power plants only cover 1-2% of electricity production in China while the globalaverage is around 10%. Much of the biomass in China is instead used in thetransportation sector, to be discussed below.In the pessimistic scenario (2b), the CCS share drops from 2080 to 2090, heavily inChina, and more moderately for the whole world. Between 2080 and 2090, industryswitches from gas to electricity as the main energy carrier and there is a projectedincrease in electricity and hydrogen powered vehicles. With increased demand forindustry electricity, electricity for the transportation fleet, and for hydrogen production(electrolysis), power capacity expands, particularly in China. The increased electricitydemand is met by increasing the investment in solar PV at the end of the century in themodel, as CCS would emit too much CO 2 to remain within the emission constraint. Thisgives a large increase in power production and therefore the relative share of CCS powerdiminishes.6Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 263
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Energy Systems and Technologies for
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ContentsSessions overview 1Programm
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sessions overview08:00-09:00Coffee
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11:00 - 12:30 session 6A - Bioenerg
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ContactSustainable Energy, Technica
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Penetration of new energy technolog
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how decisions are made and by whom
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(9) is the logaritimic expansion of
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(16)we may finally write Eq(14) in
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Table 1: Fast track cases for new r
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Peterka V. Macrodynamics of technol
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Growth in clean and reliable energy
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Conclusion - an ambitious vision an
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"Spurring investments in renewable
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Integrating climate change adaptati
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transport, and finance. Energy prov
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northern South America, the Caribbe
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Table 1: Energy system adaptation s
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More generally, a number of no- or
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6 ReferencesADB, 2005. Climate proo
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Sailor, D.J., Smith, M., Hart, M.,
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Factors affecting stakeholder perce
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Another study conducted in Japan wa
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4 The effect of information on stak
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Furthermore, communication to stake
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Shackley S, McLachlan C, Gough C (2
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Figure 1: Potential CO 2 storage si
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The Upper Jurassic - Lower Cretaceo
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The majority of the individual stru
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Development. Project no. ENK6-CT-19
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Section 5 summarises the key issue
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Table 1. Efficiencies for new large
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In addition, district heating syste
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6.4 Model results from EFDA-TIMESIn
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Maisonnier, D., et al. (2007), Powe
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1Efficiency and effectiveness of pr
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3Stromerzeugung [TWh/a]250200150100
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54 Country-specific Lessons learned
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7100%90%80%quota fullfilment (%)70%
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[5] Haas R., et al: Efficiency and
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The development and diffusion of re
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a. Offshore wind in DenmarkDenmark
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applicants are invited to submit a
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nies that provide upstream and down
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for both technology users and produ
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Trade Disputes over Renewable Energ
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treatment to imported renewable ene
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In Canada, the federal government i
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grid access, subsidies and land off
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In 2010, China’s total wind insta
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Source: Renewables 2010 Global Stat
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Source: REN 21, Renewables 2010 Glo
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Source: adapted from REN21, 2010It
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their precise scope and nature diff
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60 daysBy 2 nd DSBmeetingConsultati
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discriminatory manner on domestic a
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the European Union, the North Ameri
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ended. China lost this case because
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As most countries in the world are
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Session 3A - Energy SystemsRisø In
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1 IntroductionWith the introduction
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occur. This is an undesirably burea
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This curve could be used as a new t
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ut for the total consumption, and i
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This gives the LBR an opportunity t
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concludes that the subsurface conta
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to constrain the evaluation. In add
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Fig. 2 SW-NE trending seismic profi
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Fig. 5. Petrophysical evaluation of
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ConclusionsThe Danish subsurface co
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Performance of Space Heating in aMo
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[5],[10],[11],[16],[18],[20],[26].
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2/3 Sun1 Coal1/3 ElPower plantHP1 H
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25002000Surplus(min(wind,prod-cons)
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160CO 2 emission per unit heat prod
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The calculations have been based on
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Session 3B - smart gridsRisø Inter
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2 Myopic Investments2.1 The Balmore
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Moreover, this model is formulated
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Reducing Electricity Demand Peaks b
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3 Event Driven Scheduling Algorithm
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5 Mapping Teletraffic Theory to Ene
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6.2 Results and Performance Metrics
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Energy Efficient Refrigeration and
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Virtual Power PlantAggregatorSuperm
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C p,rC p,fT rT fW cφ sT a(UA) raHe
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Total PowerP.G. #1P.G. #2C.R. #1201
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the availability payment.Simulation
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The constraint in Eq. (16) has the
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The FlexControl concept - a vision,
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can react on requests for power reg
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3 ControlThe concept is based solel
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one hour to the next - correspondin
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4 ProtectionThe protection of the p
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Session 4 - Efficiency Improvements
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the product portfolio point of view
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Figure 4: Principle flow sheet of t
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process information needed are seld
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AIRFINE®(Reference)MEROS®Ca(OH)2M
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4 Conclusion & DiscussionThe Eco-Ca
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1 Energy policy and EU directivesTh
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iomass CHP, heat pumps, electric bo
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Fig. 1: How to supply a growing hea
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Session 5A - Wind Energy IRisø Int
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The average cumulative growth rate
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turbines is expected to create a st
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O&MGridWindturbineSubstructureFigur
Page 216 and 217: Another idea is to harvest energy f
Page 218 and 219: 9. Shimon Awerbuch, Determining the
Page 220 and 221: engaged in wind energy assessment,
Page 222 and 223: treated in such a way to make them
Page 224 and 225: Figure 5: Map showing the estimated
Page 226 and 227: Figure 9: The annual mean power den
Page 228 and 229: mix is required. For example diurna
Page 230 and 231: Session 5B - Wind Energy IIRisø In
Page 232 and 233: TABLE ISOME OF THE WIND TURBINE MAN
Page 234 and 235: China, has prompted all parties, in
Page 236 and 237: to the high shaft speed. Furthermor
Page 238 and 239: Superconductors must be kept cold b
Page 240 and 241: an annual increase in demand of 6%,
Page 242 and 243: Improved High Temperature Supercond
Page 244 and 245: our study to a single set of deposi
Page 246 and 247: 3.2 Yttrium-enriched YBCO thin film
Page 248 and 249: Fig. 5. AC-susceptibility dependenc
Page 250 and 251: The j C (B) dependence at 50 K for
Page 252 and 253: Session 6A - Bioenergy IRisø Inter
Page 254 and 255: The European politicians are faced
Page 256 and 257: The fast growing demand for biomass
Page 258 and 259: Figure 2: Avedøre Power Plant in C
Page 260 and 261: Figure 5: Concept for a sustainable
Page 262 and 263: The role of biomass and CCS in Chin
Page 264 and 265: 2.2.1 CCS Potential for ChinaCCS is
Page 268 and 269: In general, if the CCS technology d
Page 270 and 271: with high implementation of CCS Chi
Page 272 and 273: The European Biofuels Policy: from
Page 274 and 275: aimed to promote agriculture-based
Page 276 and 277: (EC, 2009b), and internationally vi
Page 278 and 279: Session 6B - Bio Energy IIRisø Int
Page 280 and 281: The commercial scale production of
Page 282 and 283: the production process parameters,
Page 284 and 285: NutrientWaterAlgal cultureproductio
Page 286 and 287: Schenk, P.M., Thomas-Hall, S.R., St
Page 288 and 289: Liquid biofuels from blue biomassZs
Page 290 and 291: Even though final ethanol yields we
Page 292 and 293: Integrated Gasification SOFC Plant
Page 294 and 295: 2.1 Modelling of SOFCThe SOFC model
Page 296 and 297: where g 0 , R an T are the specific
Page 298 and 299: hand side y-axis corresponds to eff
Page 300 and 301: The moister content for these three
Page 302 and 303: Use of Methanation for Optimization
Page 304 and 305: power production from utilizing the
Page 306 and 307: 2.1 Model DescriptionThe developed
Page 308 and 309: Figure 3: Flow sheet of methanation
Page 310 and 311: efficiency and turbine inlet temper
Page 312 and 313: [14] DNA - A Thermal Energy System
Page 314 and 315: On the effectiveness of standards v
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educing new car emissions to 120 g
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In addition energy consumption E an
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coefficient γ for the impact of fu
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400200Change in energy (PJ)01980 19
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Figure 9 depict scenarios for the f
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What are customers willing to pay f
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Randomly, continuous up to ±50%Acc
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The likelihood for the model is giv
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eally means that this factor and no
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Table 5-1 Parameter estimates from
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Table 6-2 Willingness to pay for 10
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Session 12 - Energy for Developing
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Risø International Energy Conferen
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existing renewable energy technolog
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useful energyend energysecondary en
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parts or the means of enforcing war
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The development of micro-hydro proj
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Table 1. Electric power generation
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5 ReferencesBajgain, S., Shakya, I.
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IntroductionElectricity has become
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of 2008, 43.6% of the total populat
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Hilmand provinces have comparativel
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….. eq. 5LCOE is the net present
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case of Nepal, it is 5% (Trading ec
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ing down the cost of solar PV modul
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3.3 Serving the rural areas with na
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The levelized costs of electricity
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Figure 4. Variation in LCOE with si
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The analysis reveals that fuel cost
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In case of DG, we have looked with
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Gross, R., Blyth, W., Heptonstall,
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Mode of Transport to Work, Car Owne
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power parity (PPP) basis, GDP per c
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83,385 to 109,108 while the number
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other purposes so that reduced fare
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emissions studies is that they were
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where I (·) is the indicator funct
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increases, individuals acquire more
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while that of other means of transp
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into CO 2 . For all oil and oil pro
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impact. In general, income is found
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7 ReferenceAlperovich, G., Deutsch,
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Table 1: Definitions of Variables a
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Session 13 - Energy StorageRisø In
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2 Storage demand and resulting stor
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compressed air storages, demand sit
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Fig. 3: Options for underground sto
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3.5 Geological potential in EuropeF
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Sensitivity on Battery Prices and C
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3.1 Base caseA northern European en
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4 ResultsThe model is run on a comp
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Furthermore, a slight decrease in t
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Night time charging increases with
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Lithuanian Energy Institute, PSE In
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atteries, Compressed Air Energy Sto
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negative net load, can be expected
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25%Pct. of the year20%15%10%5%0.5-0
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800006000040000MWh200000Netload-200
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[4] B. V. Mathiesen and H. Lund, "C
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Compressed Air Energy Storage in Of
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compressed air caverns, corrosion-r
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Figure 3: Distribution of salt depo
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Figure 6: EWEA's 20 year Offshore N
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spinning reserves can be provided b
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7 Discussion and conclusionsThis pa
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Risø DTU is the National Laborator
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