Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

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Moreover, this model is formulated more flexibly such that a sequence of less-than fullhorizon may be solved. This is illustrated in Figure 3, where each Balbase4 modelconsists of four years within the full horizon. The spacing between the years within aBalbase4 model is the same as in any other Balbase4 model, in the example twoconsecutive years (from years within the full horizon) are followed by a slip of one yearand the a slip of two years. The number of years and the slips between the years are userdefined. This way a quite flexible rolling horizon approach is available.Year 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 2018 2020 2025 2030HorizonModel 1Model 2Model 3Figure 3: Approach Balbase4 sequentially solves Balbase4 models, each consisting of asubset of all years in the full horizon, with updating between solves.Thus, in particular Balbase4 may reproduce the approach of Balbase2 which wasillustrated in Figure 1.The investment and operations costs are basically taken into account as in modelBalbase2. The distinguishing feature is that costs for all the years within a model areincluded. Thus, for example for the second model in Figure 3 (years 2012, 2013, 2016and 2025) annual costs corresponding to that of model Balbase2 are included as followsdepending on the year of investment in that model, 2012: four times the annual costs plus the four years’ operation costs 2013: three times the annual costs plus the tree years’ operation costs 2016: two times the annual costs plus the two years’ operation costs 2025: one time the annual costs plus the year’s operation costsThe other side of the coin is that investments made in year 2012 will have the incomefrom four years of operations to balance the four years of annual costs, etc. forinvestments the other years. Overall, the objective function in the Balbase4 model is tomaximize social welfare over the years included in the model.4 Some observation on the two approachesHere some general observations with respect to calculation time and prices will bereported.4.1 Calculation timeUsually model Balbase4 is larger than Balbase2, because it includes several years. Onthe other hand model Balbase4 may be solved less times. In most application,supposedly, if model Balbase4 includes X times larger than model Balbase2, then modelBalbase2 will be solved approximately X times more often than model Balbase4.A common experience from solution of LP (Linear Programming) models is that thesolution time is approximately linear in the size of the problem. If this holds true alsohere, this would mean that total calculation time would be approximately the same formodels Balbase2 and Balbase4. If a constant overhead per solve (model generation,communication between GAMS and solver, output handling) is appreciable, this maytend to favor model Balbase4 in relation to calculation time.Only if the generated model is large compared to available computer memory and otherresources approach Balbase2 (or a sequence of small Balbase4 models in a rollinghorizon approach) therefore may be preferable to approach Balbase4 with respect tocomputation time.Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 154
4.2 PricesFor a data set that happens to give the same solution for Balbase2 and Balbase4 theobjective value will be the same (in case of no discounting in Balbase4). This couldimply that marginal costs (some of which are interpreted as electricity prices) would alsobe identical. However, the situation is more complex, because although all input data areidentical, and all optimal (primal) values are identical this does not suffice to make allinterpretations (including marginal costs or dual variables) identical. Suffice here tomention that the electricity and/or heat prices will often get higher in model Balbase4than in model Balbase2 in the time segments that motivate investments, while averageprices will often be at the same level.5 Discussion and ConclusionsOne would intuitively think that model Balbase4 (without rolling horizon) would be"better" model Balbase2. The reason is that Balbase4 includes all of model Balbase2 andthen some more. The additional component is a better look-ahead mechanism forinvestment decisions.The only look-ahead mechanism of Balbase2 is the annuity aspect related to investments.If the future is similar to the present, this will probably be a fair representation, but if thefuture is different (e.g. very different fuel prices or environmental requirements), thenthere may be Balbase2 investments now that will appear unfavorable in the light of laterdevelopment. In this respect Balbase4 is "better", since it knows the future.For these reasons Balbase4 would be preferred to Balbase2, except if the model is verylarge as commented above. For the Balbase4 model there seems to be no reason to applya rolling horizon approach (again, except if the model is prohibitively large), since arolling horizon can not be "better" than one full horizon Balbase4 model.A main common characteristic for the Balbase2 and Balbase4 approaches is that they areusing deterministic models, implying in particular that the future is known with certainty.This is obviouly not the case in reality. Usually in such models this situation is handledby calculating solutions under various assumptions concerning the future (i.e., variousscenarios). The advantage of such scenario approach is that interpretation of the resultsare fairly straight forward. – Alternatively a stochastic modeling appraoch may be taken.It should be noted, though, that it is not necessarily always possible or relevant (due toassumptions of existence of relevant data on probability distributions). When possible,such models provides on the positive side additional information, while on the negativeside the interpretations of results are less easy, and the calculation burden is usuallyheavy.In balance, the presented approach towards dynamic investment analysis seemsattractive. The model has been coded for the Balmorel model, where it will becomereadily available.6 ReferencesH. Ravn et al., Balmorel: A Model for Analyses of the Electricity and CHP Markets,2001, available at www.balmorel.comJohn V. Leahy, Investment in Competitive Equilibrium: The Optimality of MyopicBehaviour, The Quarterly Journal of Economics (1993) 108 (4): 1105-1133.Jesper Felstedt and Morten Middelboe Pedersen, Modellering af Investeringer iElsektoren, Master Thesis at IMM, Technical University of Denmark, 2005.Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 155
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Energy Systems and Technologies for
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ContentsSessions overview 1Programm
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sessions overview08:00-09:00Coffee
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11:00 - 12:30 session 6A - Bioenerg
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ContactSustainable Energy, Technica
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Penetration of new energy technolog
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how decisions are made and by whom
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(9) is the logaritimic expansion of
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(16)we may finally write Eq(14) in
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Table 1: Fast track cases for new r
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Peterka V. Macrodynamics of technol
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Growth in clean and reliable energy
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Conclusion - an ambitious vision an
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"Spurring investments in renewable
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Integrating climate change adaptati
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transport, and finance. Energy prov
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northern South America, the Caribbe
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Table 1: Energy system adaptation s
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More generally, a number of no- or
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6 ReferencesADB, 2005. Climate proo
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Sailor, D.J., Smith, M., Hart, M.,
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Factors affecting stakeholder perce
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Another study conducted in Japan wa
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4 The effect of information on stak
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Furthermore, communication to stake
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Shackley S, McLachlan C, Gough C (2
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Figure 1: Potential CO 2 storage si
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The Upper Jurassic - Lower Cretaceo
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The majority of the individual stru
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Development. Project no. ENK6-CT-19
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Section 5 summarises the key issue
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Table 1. Efficiencies for new large
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In addition, district heating syste
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6.4 Model results from EFDA-TIMESIn
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Maisonnier, D., et al. (2007), Powe
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1Efficiency and effectiveness of pr
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3Stromerzeugung [TWh/a]250200150100
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54 Country-specific Lessons learned
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7100%90%80%quota fullfilment (%)70%
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[5] Haas R., et al: Efficiency and
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The development and diffusion of re
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a. Offshore wind in DenmarkDenmark
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applicants are invited to submit a
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nies that provide upstream and down
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for both technology users and produ
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Trade Disputes over Renewable Energ
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treatment to imported renewable ene
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In Canada, the federal government i
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grid access, subsidies and land off
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In 2010, China’s total wind insta
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Source: Renewables 2010 Global Stat
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Source: REN 21, Renewables 2010 Glo
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Source: adapted from REN21, 2010It
Page 107 and 108: their precise scope and nature diff
Page 109 and 110: 60 daysBy 2 nd DSBmeetingConsultati
Page 111 and 112: discriminatory manner on domestic a
Page 113 and 114: the European Union, the North Ameri
Page 115: ended. China lost this case because
Page 118 and 119: As most countries in the world are
Page 120 and 121: Session 3A - Energy SystemsRisø In
Page 122 and 123: 1 IntroductionWith the introduction
Page 124 and 125: occur. This is an undesirably burea
Page 126 and 127: This curve could be used as a new t
Page 128 and 129: ut for the total consumption, and i
Page 130 and 131: This gives the LBR an opportunity t
Page 132 and 133: concludes that the subsurface conta
Page 134 and 135: to constrain the evaluation. In add
Page 136 and 137: Fig. 2 SW-NE trending seismic profi
Page 138 and 139: Fig. 5. Petrophysical evaluation of
Page 140 and 141: ConclusionsThe Danish subsurface co
Page 142 and 143: Performance of Space Heating in aMo
Page 144 and 145: [5],[10],[11],[16],[18],[20],[26].
Page 146 and 147: 2/3 Sun1 Coal1/3 ElPower plantHP1 H
Page 148 and 149: 25002000Surplus(min(wind,prod-cons)
Page 150 and 151: 160CO 2 emission per unit heat prod
Page 152 and 153: The calculations have been based on
Page 154 and 155: Session 3B - smart gridsRisø Inter
Page 156 and 157: 2 Myopic Investments2.1 The Balmore
Page 160 and 161: Reducing Electricity Demand Peaks b
Page 162 and 163: 3 Event Driven Scheduling Algorithm
Page 164 and 165: 5 Mapping Teletraffic Theory to Ene
Page 166 and 167: 6.2 Results and Performance Metrics
Page 168 and 169: Energy Efficient Refrigeration and
Page 170 and 171: Virtual Power PlantAggregatorSuperm
Page 172 and 173: C p,rC p,fT rT fW cφ sT a(UA) raHe
Page 174 and 175: Total PowerP.G. #1P.G. #2C.R. #1201
Page 176 and 177: the availability payment.Simulation
Page 178 and 179: The constraint in Eq. (16) has the
Page 180 and 181: The FlexControl concept - a vision,
Page 182 and 183: can react on requests for power reg
Page 184 and 185: 3 ControlThe concept is based solel
Page 186 and 187: one hour to the next - correspondin
Page 188 and 189: 4 ProtectionThe protection of the p
Page 190 and 191: Session 4 - Efficiency Improvements
Page 192 and 193: the product portfolio point of view
Page 194 and 195: Figure 4: Principle flow sheet of t
Page 196 and 197: process information needed are seld
Page 198 and 199: AIRFINE®(Reference)MEROS®Ca(OH)2M
Page 200 and 201: 4 Conclusion & DiscussionThe Eco-Ca
Page 202 and 203: 1 Energy policy and EU directivesTh
Page 204 and 205: iomass CHP, heat pumps, electric bo
Page 206 and 207: Fig. 1: How to supply a growing hea
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Session 5A - Wind Energy IRisø Int
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The average cumulative growth rate
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turbines is expected to create a st
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O&MGridWindturbineSubstructureFigur
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Another idea is to harvest energy f
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9. Shimon Awerbuch, Determining the
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engaged in wind energy assessment,
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treated in such a way to make them
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Figure 5: Map showing the estimated
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Figure 9: The annual mean power den
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mix is required. For example diurna
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Session 5B - Wind Energy IIRisø In
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TABLE ISOME OF THE WIND TURBINE MAN
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China, has prompted all parties, in
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to the high shaft speed. Furthermor
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Superconductors must be kept cold b
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an annual increase in demand of 6%,
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Improved High Temperature Supercond
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our study to a single set of deposi
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3.2 Yttrium-enriched YBCO thin film
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Fig. 5. AC-susceptibility dependenc
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The j C (B) dependence at 50 K for
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Session 6A - Bioenergy IRisø Inter
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The European politicians are faced
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The fast growing demand for biomass
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Figure 2: Avedøre Power Plant in C
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Figure 5: Concept for a sustainable
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The role of biomass and CCS in Chin
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2.2.1 CCS Potential for ChinaCCS is
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80%70%60%China's share ofglobal CO
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In general, if the CCS technology d
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with high implementation of CCS Chi
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The European Biofuels Policy: from
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aimed to promote agriculture-based
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(EC, 2009b), and internationally vi
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Session 6B - Bio Energy IIRisø Int
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The commercial scale production of
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the production process parameters,
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NutrientWaterAlgal cultureproductio
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Schenk, P.M., Thomas-Hall, S.R., St
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Liquid biofuels from blue biomassZs
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Even though final ethanol yields we
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Integrated Gasification SOFC Plant
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2.1 Modelling of SOFCThe SOFC model
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where g 0 , R an T are the specific
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hand side y-axis corresponds to eff
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The moister content for these three
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Use of Methanation for Optimization
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power production from utilizing the
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2.1 Model DescriptionThe developed
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Figure 3: Flow sheet of methanation
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efficiency and turbine inlet temper
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[14] DNA - A Thermal Energy System
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On the effectiveness of standards v
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educing new car emissions to 120 g
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In addition energy consumption E an
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coefficient γ for the impact of fu
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400200Change in energy (PJ)01980 19
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Figure 9 depict scenarios for the f
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What are customers willing to pay f
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Randomly, continuous up to ±50%Acc
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The likelihood for the model is giv
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eally means that this factor and no
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Table 5-1 Parameter estimates from
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Table 6-2 Willingness to pay for 10
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Session 12 - Energy for Developing
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Risø International Energy Conferen
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existing renewable energy technolog
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useful energyend energysecondary en
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parts or the means of enforcing war
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The development of micro-hydro proj
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Table 1. Electric power generation
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5 ReferencesBajgain, S., Shakya, I.
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IntroductionElectricity has become
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of 2008, 43.6% of the total populat
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Hilmand provinces have comparativel
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….. eq. 5LCOE is the net present
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case of Nepal, it is 5% (Trading ec
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ing down the cost of solar PV modul
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3.3 Serving the rural areas with na
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The levelized costs of electricity
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Figure 4. Variation in LCOE with si
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The analysis reveals that fuel cost
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In case of DG, we have looked with
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Gross, R., Blyth, W., Heptonstall,
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Mode of Transport to Work, Car Owne
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power parity (PPP) basis, GDP per c
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83,385 to 109,108 while the number
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other purposes so that reduced fare
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emissions studies is that they were
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where I (·) is the indicator funct
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increases, individuals acquire more
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while that of other means of transp
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into CO 2 . For all oil and oil pro
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impact. In general, income is found
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7 ReferenceAlperovich, G., Deutsch,
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Table 1: Definitions of Variables a
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Session 13 - Energy StorageRisø In
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2 Storage demand and resulting stor
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compressed air storages, demand sit
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Fig. 3: Options for underground sto
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3.5 Geological potential in EuropeF
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Sensitivity on Battery Prices and C
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3.1 Base caseA northern European en
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4 ResultsThe model is run on a comp
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Furthermore, a slight decrease in t
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Night time charging increases with
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Lithuanian Energy Institute, PSE In
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atteries, Compressed Air Energy Sto
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negative net load, can be expected
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25%Pct. of the year20%15%10%5%0.5-0
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800006000040000MWh200000Netload-200
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[4] B. V. Mathiesen and H. Lund, "C
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Compressed Air Energy Storage in Of
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compressed air caverns, corrosion-r
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Figure 3: Distribution of salt depo
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Figure 6: EWEA's 20 year Offshore N
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spinning reserves can be provided b
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7 Discussion and conclusionsThis pa
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Risø DTU is the National Laborator
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