Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

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towards use of PV all over the world. According to IEA’s solar PV roadmap thecompetitive parity with the power grid will be achieved by 2020. PV power will provideby 2050 around 11% of global electricity production (IEA, 2010a). The global financialcrisis has put a hold to many planned projects which might endanger the fulfilment of theIEA targets. However, some countries are building up an industry to meet the futuredemands for solar PV and at the same time achieve economic growth. Here China hasgained a strong position, further strengthened by the takeover of Norway’s Elkem Solar.Entrepreneurial experiments and demonstrations will help to turn new knowledge intobusiness opportunities and innovations. Policy instruments which support suchentrepreneurial activities, under the umbrella of Innovation Norway, have to bestrengthened. Further knowledge development and collaboration of important private andpublic R&D actors across national borders will help creating and diffusing knowledge.Here the cooperation with the Nordic countries (for ex. the Nordic Centre of Excellencein Photovoltaics) and other European countries (activities under the auspice of theStrategic Energy Technology Plan and the European Photovoltaic Industry Association,such as the Solar Europe Industry Initiative and the European Photovoltaic TechnologyPlatform) can turn out to be useful. It is the European industry’s vision that by 2020 PVwill be a mainstream and competitive energy technology providing up to 12% of theEuropean electricity demand. This is going to increase to 20% in 2030 and 30% in 2050.Priority setting by Norwegian, Nordic and European RD&D funders and governmentswill improve guidance of the search. Niche markets have to be created and entrepreneurshave to find them also abroad.Expectations towards the deployment of solar PV are high in most of the countries, butthere are several actions needed: the development of standards for PV products, aregulatory framework for large-scale integration of PV into the European grid and ofinnovative business models for end-users and rural deployment. System integration hasto be addressed in cooperation with network operators, producers of electric automobilesand the building sector. As soon as grid competitiveness is achieved, policy should bedirected on improving self-sustained markets, phasing-out economic incentives butmaintaining access to grids and R&D funding.Up-scaling of Norwegian industrial actors depend on global market conditions, marketincentives, access to financial capital and political framework conditions. Limited accessto financial capital was one of the reasons for the takeover of Elkem by China’s Bluestar.Not all up-scaling will happen in Norway as some of these developments have alreadyshown (REC’s activities in Singapore, Metallkraft’s activities in Singapore and China).Global challenges are not clear enough communicated: the financial crisis has put a holdon further improvements and climate change critics doubt the necessity to rush forward.Several technological solutions still compete: the fossil-based energy sector may chooseto invest more on carbon capture and storage than on renewable energy and the atomicindustry has huge plans for building nuclear power plants although this may changerapidly because of the atomic energy catastrophe in Japan, after the March 2011 tsunami.4. DiscussionOur case studies show the importance of innovation policy strategies for the successfuldevelopment of a competitive development and diffusion of renewable energy technologies.Public policies supporting such success stories are an intelligent combination ofenergy policy and innovation policy strategies. Both countries are small open economies,oriented towards the international markets.While the Norwegian PV case shows the dependence on the international marketconditions, the Danish offshore wind case shows the importance also of the home andneighbouring markets. However, the Danish case also shows the fierce competition andglobalisation of the industry, the implications of the liberalised European energy marketsRisø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 84
for both technology users and producers and the delicate trade-off between economicinterests – national and EU-wide on the one side and societal and business on the otherside. Based on the first mover advantage of both the onshore and the offshore technologydevelopment and diffusion, the Danish wind energy industry has a relatively strong pointof departure for providing competitive and cost efficient technology, system integration,grid enforcement and maintenance and operation of offshore wind energy farms.However, the rapid uptake in emerging markets such as China challenges the overallcompetitiveness of the industry. In the years to come offshore wind will play animportant role in various countries to comply with the European 2020 renewable energytarget, but also emerging economies with abundant need for energy set ambitious targetsand are willing to invest heavily in RD&D to stimulate ingenious innovation and secureenergy of supply.Both cases illustrate the importance of global markets, but the Danish offshore windenergy case also shows that national and EU policies and framework conditions areincreasingly interwoven, that both industry and knowledge communities are constantlychallenged to maintain a first mover advantage and that close collaboration between keyactors of the TIS is not limited by national boundaries.The development of the PV industry in Norway is based on a unique combination oftechnological competencies, raw material and available energy. Niche-markets havedeveloped in some countries both in Europe and elsewhere and innovations developed byNorwegian industry actors have taken advantage of these foreign niche-markets. Theefficiency of these niche-market products cannot compete yet with existing fossil-basedtechnology regimes because of too low energy prices in most of the countries. PVtechnology has not been developed primarily for the Norwegian home market. Thereforethe emergence of new entrants further down the value chain has not been in the focusfrom the beginning, but has received more attention recently, but with a focus on theEuropean and Asian market. New generations of PV may be relevant also for othermarkets.We can summarise that both cases illustrate the main challenges for European and globalenergy production and innovation policy: deployment of a higher share of renewableenergy to lower costs for replacing fossil based energy production. A competitiveindustry operating on global markets, a well functioning supply chain of componentindustry, new strategic partnerships and close cooperation between users, producers,developers, system operators and public and private investors are all decisive for thesuccessful development and diffusion of these technologies. Ambitious policy targets,grid enforcement, intelligent market pull and technology push support mechanisms atnational as well as European level all contribute to reducing costs to a competitive level.ReferencesBergek, A., Hekkert, M. and Jacobsson, S. (2008) Functions in innovation systems: Aframework for analysing energy system dynamics and identifying goals for systembuildingactivities by entrepreneurs and policymakers. In: Foxon, T. J., Köhler, J. andOughton, C., eds. Innovation for a low carbon economy: economic, institutional andmanagement approaches. Cheltemham, UK: Edward Elgar, 79-111.BTM Consult (2010) International Wind Energy Development. Offshore Report 2010.Ringkøbing: BTM Consult Aps.Borup, M.; Dannemand Andersen, P.; Gregersen, B.; Nygaard Tanner, A.(2009) NyEnergi og innovation i Danmark. København: DJØF.Carlsson, B. and Stànkiewicz, R. (1991) On the nature, function, and composition oftechnological systems. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 1, 93-118.Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 85
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Energy Systems and Technologies for
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ContentsSessions overview 1Programm
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sessions overview08:00-09:00Coffee
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11:00 - 12:30 session 6A - Bioenerg
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ContactSustainable Energy, Technica
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Penetration of new energy technolog
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how decisions are made and by whom
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(9) is the logaritimic expansion of
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(16)we may finally write Eq(14) in
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Table 1: Fast track cases for new r
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Peterka V. Macrodynamics of technol
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Growth in clean and reliable energy
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Conclusion - an ambitious vision an
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"Spurring investments in renewable
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Integrating climate change adaptati
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transport, and finance. Energy prov
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northern South America, the Caribbe
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Table 1: Energy system adaptation s
Page 37 and 38: More generally, a number of no- or
Page 39 and 40: 6 ReferencesADB, 2005. Climate proo
Page 41 and 42: Sailor, D.J., Smith, M., Hart, M.,
Page 43 and 44: Factors affecting stakeholder perce
Page 45 and 46: Another study conducted in Japan wa
Page 47 and 48: 4 The effect of information on stak
Page 49 and 50: Furthermore, communication to stake
Page 51 and 52: Shackley S, McLachlan C, Gough C (2
Page 53 and 54: Figure 1: Potential CO 2 storage si
Page 55 and 56: The Upper Jurassic - Lower Cretaceo
Page 57 and 58: The majority of the individual stru
Page 59 and 60: Development. Project no. ENK6-CT-19
Page 61 and 62: Section 5 summarises the key issue
Page 63 and 64: Table 1. Efficiencies for new large
Page 65 and 66: In addition, district heating syste
Page 67 and 68: 6.4 Model results from EFDA-TIMESIn
Page 69 and 70: Maisonnier, D., et al. (2007), Powe
Page 71 and 72: 1Efficiency and effectiveness of pr
Page 73 and 74: 3Stromerzeugung [TWh/a]250200150100
Page 75 and 76: 54 Country-specific Lessons learned
Page 77 and 78: 7100%90%80%quota fullfilment (%)70%
Page 79 and 80: [5] Haas R., et al: Efficiency and
Page 81 and 82: The development and diffusion of re
Page 83 and 84: a. Offshore wind in DenmarkDenmark
Page 85 and 86: applicants are invited to submit a
Page 87: nies that provide upstream and down
Page 91 and 92: Trade Disputes over Renewable Energ
Page 93 and 94: treatment to imported renewable ene
Page 95 and 96: In Canada, the federal government i
Page 97 and 98: grid access, subsidies and land off
Page 99 and 100: In 2010, China’s total wind insta
Page 101 and 102: Source: Renewables 2010 Global Stat
Page 103 and 104: Source: REN 21, Renewables 2010 Glo
Page 105 and 106: Source: adapted from REN21, 2010It
Page 107 and 108: their precise scope and nature diff
Page 109 and 110: 60 daysBy 2 nd DSBmeetingConsultati
Page 111 and 112: discriminatory manner on domestic a
Page 113 and 114: the European Union, the North Ameri
Page 115: ended. China lost this case because
Page 118 and 119: As most countries in the world are
Page 120 and 121: Session 3A - Energy SystemsRisø In
Page 122 and 123: 1 IntroductionWith the introduction
Page 124 and 125: occur. This is an undesirably burea
Page 126 and 127: This curve could be used as a new t
Page 128 and 129: ut for the total consumption, and i
Page 130 and 131: This gives the LBR an opportunity t
Page 132 and 133: concludes that the subsurface conta
Page 134 and 135: to constrain the evaluation. In add
Page 136 and 137: Fig. 2 SW-NE trending seismic profi
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Fig. 5. Petrophysical evaluation of
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ConclusionsThe Danish subsurface co
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Performance of Space Heating in aMo
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[5],[10],[11],[16],[18],[20],[26].
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2/3 Sun1 Coal1/3 ElPower plantHP1 H
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25002000Surplus(min(wind,prod-cons)
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160CO 2 emission per unit heat prod
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The calculations have been based on
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Session 3B - smart gridsRisø Inter
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2 Myopic Investments2.1 The Balmore
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Moreover, this model is formulated
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Reducing Electricity Demand Peaks b
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3 Event Driven Scheduling Algorithm
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5 Mapping Teletraffic Theory to Ene
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6.2 Results and Performance Metrics
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Energy Efficient Refrigeration and
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Virtual Power PlantAggregatorSuperm
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C p,rC p,fT rT fW cφ sT a(UA) raHe
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Total PowerP.G. #1P.G. #2C.R. #1201
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the availability payment.Simulation
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The constraint in Eq. (16) has the
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The FlexControl concept - a vision,
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can react on requests for power reg
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3 ControlThe concept is based solel
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one hour to the next - correspondin
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4 ProtectionThe protection of the p
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Session 4 - Efficiency Improvements
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the product portfolio point of view
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Figure 4: Principle flow sheet of t
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process information needed are seld
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AIRFINE®(Reference)MEROS®Ca(OH)2M
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4 Conclusion & DiscussionThe Eco-Ca
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1 Energy policy and EU directivesTh
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iomass CHP, heat pumps, electric bo
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Fig. 1: How to supply a growing hea
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Session 5A - Wind Energy IRisø Int
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The average cumulative growth rate
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turbines is expected to create a st
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O&MGridWindturbineSubstructureFigur
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Another idea is to harvest energy f
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9. Shimon Awerbuch, Determining the
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engaged in wind energy assessment,
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treated in such a way to make them
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Figure 5: Map showing the estimated
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Figure 9: The annual mean power den
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mix is required. For example diurna
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Session 5B - Wind Energy IIRisø In
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TABLE ISOME OF THE WIND TURBINE MAN
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China, has prompted all parties, in
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to the high shaft speed. Furthermor
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Superconductors must be kept cold b
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an annual increase in demand of 6%,
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Improved High Temperature Supercond
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our study to a single set of deposi
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3.2 Yttrium-enriched YBCO thin film
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Fig. 5. AC-susceptibility dependenc
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The j C (B) dependence at 50 K for
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Session 6A - Bioenergy IRisø Inter
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The European politicians are faced
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The fast growing demand for biomass
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Figure 2: Avedøre Power Plant in C
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Figure 5: Concept for a sustainable
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The role of biomass and CCS in Chin
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2.2.1 CCS Potential for ChinaCCS is
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80%70%60%China's share ofglobal CO
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In general, if the CCS technology d
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with high implementation of CCS Chi
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The European Biofuels Policy: from
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aimed to promote agriculture-based
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(EC, 2009b), and internationally vi
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Session 6B - Bio Energy IIRisø Int
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The commercial scale production of
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the production process parameters,
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NutrientWaterAlgal cultureproductio
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Schenk, P.M., Thomas-Hall, S.R., St
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Liquid biofuels from blue biomassZs
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Even though final ethanol yields we
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Integrated Gasification SOFC Plant
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2.1 Modelling of SOFCThe SOFC model
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where g 0 , R an T are the specific
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hand side y-axis corresponds to eff
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The moister content for these three
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Use of Methanation for Optimization
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power production from utilizing the
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2.1 Model DescriptionThe developed
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Figure 3: Flow sheet of methanation
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efficiency and turbine inlet temper
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[14] DNA - A Thermal Energy System
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On the effectiveness of standards v
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educing new car emissions to 120 g
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In addition energy consumption E an
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coefficient γ for the impact of fu
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400200Change in energy (PJ)01980 19
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Figure 9 depict scenarios for the f
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What are customers willing to pay f
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Randomly, continuous up to ±50%Acc
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The likelihood for the model is giv
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eally means that this factor and no
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Table 5-1 Parameter estimates from
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Table 6-2 Willingness to pay for 10
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Session 12 - Energy for Developing
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Risø International Energy Conferen
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Page 344 and 345:
Page 346 and 347:
Page 348 and 349:
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existing renewable energy technolog
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useful energyend energysecondary en
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parts or the means of enforcing war
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The development of micro-hydro proj
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Table 1. Electric power generation
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5 ReferencesBajgain, S., Shakya, I.
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IntroductionElectricity has become
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of 2008, 43.6% of the total populat
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Hilmand provinces have comparativel
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….. eq. 5LCOE is the net present
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case of Nepal, it is 5% (Trading ec
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ing down the cost of solar PV modul
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3.3 Serving the rural areas with na
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The levelized costs of electricity
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Figure 4. Variation in LCOE with si
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The analysis reveals that fuel cost
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In case of DG, we have looked with
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Gross, R., Blyth, W., Heptonstall,
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Mode of Transport to Work, Car Owne
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power parity (PPP) basis, GDP per c
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83,385 to 109,108 while the number
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other purposes so that reduced fare
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emissions studies is that they were
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where I (·) is the indicator funct
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increases, individuals acquire more
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while that of other means of transp
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into CO 2 . For all oil and oil pro
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impact. In general, income is found
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7 ReferenceAlperovich, G., Deutsch,
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Table 1: Definitions of Variables a
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Session 13 - Energy StorageRisø In
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2 Storage demand and resulting stor
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compressed air storages, demand sit
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Fig. 3: Options for underground sto
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3.5 Geological potential in EuropeF
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Sensitivity on Battery Prices and C
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3.1 Base caseA northern European en
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4 ResultsThe model is run on a comp
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Furthermore, a slight decrease in t
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Night time charging increases with
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Lithuanian Energy Institute, PSE In
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atteries, Compressed Air Energy Sto
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negative net load, can be expected
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25%Pct. of the year20%15%10%5%0.5-0
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800006000040000MWh200000Netload-200
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[4] B. V. Mathiesen and H. Lund, "C
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Compressed Air Energy Storage in Of
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compressed air caverns, corrosion-r
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Figure 3: Distribution of salt depo
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Figure 6: EWEA's 20 year Offshore N
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spinning reserves can be provided b
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7 Discussion and conclusionsThis pa
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Risø DTU is the National Laborator
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