Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

Table 1: Energy system adaptation strategies, measures and actionsAdaptation strategies andmeasuresReducing risks/vulnerabilitiesTechnologicalBehaviouralStructural(requiring sector widechanges)Examples of actionsPhysical protection: Retrofitting of existing infrastructure to increase robustness againststorms, floods, and drought; building dikes and desilting gates; increasing dam heights;enlarging floodgates.Improved design: Revise structural footings for new pipeline distribution systems in areaswhere permafrost is unstable through e.g. deeper pilings and use of lighter‐weight buildingmaterials; application of new weight loads for high voltage transmission towers exposed toincreases in the intensity of winter precipitation or winds.New technologies: Development of smart grids to accommodate renewable sources withintermittent generation in existing grids.Siting decisions that take climate risks into account; use of improved meteorologicalforecasting tools and strengthen communication with meteorological services to enhanceanticipation of hazards; changes in operation and maintenance practices, e.g. manage onsitedrainage and runoff of mined resources, change coal‐handling processes due toincreased moisture content, and adapt plant operations to changes in river flow patterns.Deployment of sector wide incentives, e.g. adoption of policy frameworks to facilitate theinternalization of adaptation concerns in energy systems through economic or fiscalincentives; development and adoption of tools to hedge the costs of protecting energyinfrastructure if a disaster occurs.Sharing responsibility for losses or risksInsurance measuresHedging weather events to limit the financial exposure to disruptive weather events oforganizations and/or individuals; weather‐index‐based insurance schemes; standard andcustomized insurance solutions for renewable energy projects in developing countries.Energy system diversification Broadening the range of power plant types and fuels in the generation mix and using a mixof centralized and decentralized supply patterns to increase the flexibility of the system andits resilience to more variable climatic conditions. Improves energy security in general.Exploiting opportunities and synergies, and minimising tradeoffsDemand side management Improvements in vehicle efficiency; building design; codes and standards (e.g. efficiencyand energy/water saving standards for appliances); changes in consumption patterns (district heating/cooling, flexibleworking hours); increase cooling efficiency; energy storage technologies.Provides cost‐effective, win‐win options through mitigation and adaptation synergies in acontext of rising demand and supply constraints.Decentralised energystructuresIntegrated assessments,planning and managementBuild decentralised energy structures based on locally available renewable energy sourcessituated in secure locations. Can reduce the probability of large‐scale outages whencentralized power systems are compromised and could prove more flexible and able to copewith the increasing climate variability and unpredictability.Integrated resource planning and computable general equilibrium approaches.Integrated energy and water resource management to solve conflicts and optimise the useof water for energy and other uses, in the face of climate change induced and other stresses,such as population growth, land use, and urbanization.Manage competition between land‐use for energy and non‐energy crops through e.g. moreefficient energy and fuel conversion techniques; improving land productivity and pastureefficiency (e.g. irrigation, mechanized harvesting, development of new genetically improvedspecies, and rotating land use between pasture and crops).Urban policy and land‐use planning, mainly using energy/water saving and demand‐sidemanagement (see above) as cities are important and growing consumers of energy.Source: Based on Ebinger and Vergara (2011, Chapter 4)Adapting to climate change and climate risk management are ongoing processes (seeFigure 1). Building adaptive capacity, defined as “the ability or potential of a system torespond successfully to climate variability and change” (Adger et al., 2007), is a criticalstep in enhancing the climate resilience of energy systems and a necessary condition foreffectively undertaking adaptation actions as exemplified in Table 1. Adaptive capacityhinges on awareness (see also section 2), improved knowledge, e.g. on climate changeimpacts on energy production and use, on data collection and monitoring, and on thetechnical capacity to act upon this information. Development of supportive institutionaland regulatory structures (governance, partnerships, and institutions) is fundamental inbuilding adaptive capacity (Ebinger and Vergara, 2011). Regulatory and behaviouralmeasures often take time and require strong institutions to put in place, emphasising theneed for concerted action now (World Bank, 2010b).There are very few practical examples to date of systematic efforts targeting theintegration of climate change adaptation and risk management into energy planning anddecision-making, illustrating that prioritisation of integration of energy sector adaptationoptions and action is yet to take place. Similarly, project or investment specificidentification and appraisal of adaptation options are under-represented in the empiricalliterature. There are, however, signs of growing awareness. The number of studies thatRisø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 31