Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

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existing renewable energy technologies and their possible contribution to meeting basicenergy needs, today and in the future. In the first phase, focus is put on the access toelectricity.The relevance of electrification stems mainly from two challenges: achieving universalaccess to electricity and the expected growing global demand. Electricity is regarded as akey factor in meeting the Millennium Development Goals (UN 2009), but still about1.45 billion people have not access (in 2009, IEA 2010). On the other hand the IEAexpects an increase of electricity demand by 55% between 2007 and 2030 (from 16,400TWh by 2007 to 25,400 TWh by 2030; IEA 2009).Main focus of the study lies on small-scale technologies for community-basedimplementation approaches in off-grid regions.2 Development of Technology RadarIn order to offer transparent, comprehensive and technology neutral information ontechnological options, the development of the TR comprises two guiding principles.Need-orientation: This is an attempt to redirect the focus to the energy related needs tobe met. It recognizes that energy technologies are (only) means to enable the realizationof daily tasks or the fulfilment of daily needs, be it individual or collective needs.Multi-criteria: The supply of energy comprises multiple interconnected processes: fromthe resource extraction up to the provision of end energy to the user. And also theinteractions with the ecological and social systems are manifold. Thus, information onthese multidimensional interactions may be essential for the design of measures that aimat ensuring the provision of energy based on the use of renewable resources.2.1 Set of evaluation criteriaA set of five criteria has been established to reflect and cover the different issuesimportant for the selection and application of sustainable energy technologies. Eachcriterion may entail quantitative and/or qualitative data that help to build a morecomprehensive understanding on the technology performance today or in the near future.Potential contribution to global sustainable developmentData gathered in this set describes how the application of the technologies is expected tocontribute to three of the main urgent global challenges of our time:a. Shaping low-carbon energy systems: The main parameter used for this topic isthe expected share of the technology in the future global energy supply (by year2030 and 2050). For this purpose, results from scenario analysis have beensummarized. Additionally, qualitative descriptions of the global distribution ofthe energy sources are given and the suitability in decentralized approaches isanalysed.b. Contribution to climate change mitigation: Description on the technology'spotential to contribute to climate change mitigation, like reduction of CO2eemissions.c. Contribution to MDG achievement: Indications of the suitability of certaintechnologies to help meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) arecollected. Main source of information is literature of international organisationsworking in the field of development cooperation.Environmental IssuesThe production of energy and delivery of energy services can lead to environmentalchanges that can pose threat to the ecosystems or to human beings. A large range of2Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 346
environmental and human health indicators has been developed during the last decadesin order to assess the magnitude of impacts deriving from the production of good andservices. Technology Radar is focused on searching for impact assessments. Four impactcategories are considered: possible impacts on land use, water use, toxic effects tohumans, and quantitative data on global warming effects. For the latter the emission ofgreenhouse gases (measured in CO2 equivalent) for each unit of energy provided by thetechnologies is applied. For this end data from life cycle assessments (LCA) were usedwhen available.Social IssuesThe social dimension of sustainability is the less developed construct within thediscussion on sustainability (Dillard et al., 2008). However from the rich traditionresearch on social well-being a set of principles can be extracted: Human well-being,equity, democratic government and democratic civil society. The most direct effectsfrom the application of energy technologies are related with the access to energy servicesand the opportunities that can be derived from them (e.g. employment, improved healthand education services etc.).On the other hand, social structures are not only “receptors” of impacts, they also play asignificant role as “agents” in the implementation of energy projects, thus ensuringsustainability of activities requires enabling social structures. Additionally, theinstallation and operation of energy technologies is associated with changes in the useand values of local resources. Such changes may result in conflicts or synergy effectswith other uses or values of the resources.The Technology Radar gathered qualitative information on these three main topics: (a)Impacts related with the provision of energy; (b) Impacts related with possible conflictsand/or synergies with other socio-economic values; (c) The role of local social structuresin order to guarantee long-term adoption of energy solutions.Development status and technological perspectivesThree topics are gathered under these criteria: (a) Information regarding the commercialmaturity of the technology. (b) The current role of the technology in the global energysystem. When available quantitative parameters like installed capacity or marketparticipation is given. (c) Expected technological progress. Significant trends in thefuture development of the technologies are described. To this end specialized literature isreviewed and diverse information about possibilities for cost reduction, optimizationpotentials, weakness to be solved or new emerging concepts is collectedEconomic issuesFor the first version of the Technology Radar data on current capital costs are consideredas well as expected development of costs in the middle or long term, if available. Specialemphasis is given on describing the systems and their costs, because data available inliterature often refer to different system configurations.2.2 Data management systemIn order to storage and manage the information flows during the operation of theTechnology Radar a data management system (DMS) has been developed. The structureof the DMS reproduces the general structure of any energy provision system asillustrated in Figure 1. Energy resources must experiment a whole transformation processbefore the adequate energy form can be provided and applied to meet a specific (energyrelated)need. The energy provision system takes primary energy from energy resourcesand delivers different kind of energy carriers (secondary energy) to consumers.Consumers may make use of technologies that reduce the need of energy (e.g. insulation,day lighting, intelligent controls). The end-application technology provides the actualenergy service to meet the target need. The three main (collection of) objects involved inthe system are: Needs, Technologies and Energy (i.e. the different energy forms).Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 3473
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Energy Systems and Technologies for
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ContentsSessions overview 1Programm
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sessions overview08:00-09:00Coffee
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11:00 - 12:30 session 6A - Bioenerg
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ContactSustainable Energy, Technica
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Penetration of new energy technolog
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how decisions are made and by whom
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(9) is the logaritimic expansion of
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(16)we may finally write Eq(14) in
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Table 1: Fast track cases for new r
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Peterka V. Macrodynamics of technol
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Growth in clean and reliable energy
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Conclusion - an ambitious vision an
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"Spurring investments in renewable
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Integrating climate change adaptati
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transport, and finance. Energy prov
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northern South America, the Caribbe
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Table 1: Energy system adaptation s
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More generally, a number of no- or
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6 ReferencesADB, 2005. Climate proo
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Sailor, D.J., Smith, M., Hart, M.,
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Factors affecting stakeholder perce
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Another study conducted in Japan wa
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4 The effect of information on stak
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Furthermore, communication to stake
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Shackley S, McLachlan C, Gough C (2
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Figure 1: Potential CO 2 storage si
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The Upper Jurassic - Lower Cretaceo
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The majority of the individual stru
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Development. Project no. ENK6-CT-19
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Section 5 summarises the key issue
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Table 1. Efficiencies for new large
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In addition, district heating syste
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6.4 Model results from EFDA-TIMESIn
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Maisonnier, D., et al. (2007), Powe
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1Efficiency and effectiveness of pr
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3Stromerzeugung [TWh/a]250200150100
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54 Country-specific Lessons learned
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7100%90%80%quota fullfilment (%)70%
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[5] Haas R., et al: Efficiency and
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The development and diffusion of re
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a. Offshore wind in DenmarkDenmark
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applicants are invited to submit a
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nies that provide upstream and down
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for both technology users and produ
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Trade Disputes over Renewable Energ
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treatment to imported renewable ene
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In Canada, the federal government i
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grid access, subsidies and land off
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In 2010, China’s total wind insta
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Source: Renewables 2010 Global Stat
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Source: REN 21, Renewables 2010 Glo
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Source: adapted from REN21, 2010It
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their precise scope and nature diff
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60 daysBy 2 nd DSBmeetingConsultati
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discriminatory manner on domestic a
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the European Union, the North Ameri
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ended. China lost this case because
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As most countries in the world are
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Session 3A - Energy SystemsRisø In
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1 IntroductionWith the introduction
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occur. This is an undesirably burea
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This curve could be used as a new t
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ut for the total consumption, and i
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This gives the LBR an opportunity t
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concludes that the subsurface conta
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to constrain the evaluation. In add
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Fig. 2 SW-NE trending seismic profi
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Fig. 5. Petrophysical evaluation of
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ConclusionsThe Danish subsurface co
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Performance of Space Heating in aMo
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[5],[10],[11],[16],[18],[20],[26].
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2/3 Sun1 Coal1/3 ElPower plantHP1 H
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25002000Surplus(min(wind,prod-cons)
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160CO 2 emission per unit heat prod
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The calculations have been based on
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Session 3B - smart gridsRisø Inter
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2 Myopic Investments2.1 The Balmore
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Moreover, this model is formulated
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Reducing Electricity Demand Peaks b
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3 Event Driven Scheduling Algorithm
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5 Mapping Teletraffic Theory to Ene
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6.2 Results and Performance Metrics
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Energy Efficient Refrigeration and
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Virtual Power PlantAggregatorSuperm
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C p,rC p,fT rT fW cφ sT a(UA) raHe
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Total PowerP.G. #1P.G. #2C.R. #1201
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the availability payment.Simulation
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The constraint in Eq. (16) has the
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The FlexControl concept - a vision,
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can react on requests for power reg
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3 ControlThe concept is based solel
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one hour to the next - correspondin
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4 ProtectionThe protection of the p
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Session 4 - Efficiency Improvements
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the product portfolio point of view
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Figure 4: Principle flow sheet of t
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process information needed are seld
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AIRFINE®(Reference)MEROS®Ca(OH)2M
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4 Conclusion & DiscussionThe Eco-Ca
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1 Energy policy and EU directivesTh
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iomass CHP, heat pumps, electric bo
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Fig. 1: How to supply a growing hea
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Session 5A - Wind Energy IRisø Int
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The average cumulative growth rate
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turbines is expected to create a st
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O&MGridWindturbineSubstructureFigur
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Another idea is to harvest energy f
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9. Shimon Awerbuch, Determining the
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engaged in wind energy assessment,
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treated in such a way to make them
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Figure 5: Map showing the estimated
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Figure 9: The annual mean power den
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mix is required. For example diurna
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Session 5B - Wind Energy IIRisø In
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TABLE ISOME OF THE WIND TURBINE MAN
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China, has prompted all parties, in
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to the high shaft speed. Furthermor
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Superconductors must be kept cold b
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an annual increase in demand of 6%,
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Improved High Temperature Supercond
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our study to a single set of deposi
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3.2 Yttrium-enriched YBCO thin film
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Fig. 5. AC-susceptibility dependenc
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The j C (B) dependence at 50 K for
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Session 6A - Bioenergy IRisø Inter
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The European politicians are faced
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The fast growing demand for biomass
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Figure 2: Avedøre Power Plant in C
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Figure 5: Concept for a sustainable
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The role of biomass and CCS in Chin
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2.2.1 CCS Potential for ChinaCCS is
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80%70%60%China's share ofglobal CO
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In general, if the CCS technology d
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with high implementation of CCS Chi
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The European Biofuels Policy: from
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aimed to promote agriculture-based
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(EC, 2009b), and internationally vi
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Session 6B - Bio Energy IIRisø Int
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The commercial scale production of
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the production process parameters,
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NutrientWaterAlgal cultureproductio
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Schenk, P.M., Thomas-Hall, S.R., St
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Liquid biofuels from blue biomassZs
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Even though final ethanol yields we
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Integrated Gasification SOFC Plant
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2.1 Modelling of SOFCThe SOFC model
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where g 0 , R an T are the specific
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hand side y-axis corresponds to eff
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Page 302 and 303: Use of Methanation for Optimization
Page 304 and 305: power production from utilizing the
Page 306 and 307: 2.1 Model DescriptionThe developed
Page 308 and 309: Figure 3: Flow sheet of methanation
Page 310 and 311: efficiency and turbine inlet temper
Page 312 and 313: [14] DNA - A Thermal Energy System
Page 314 and 315: On the effectiveness of standards v
Page 316 and 317: educing new car emissions to 120 g
Page 318 and 319: In addition energy consumption E an
Page 320 and 321: coefficient γ for the impact of fu
Page 322 and 323: 400200Change in energy (PJ)01980 19
Page 324 and 325: Figure 9 depict scenarios for the f
Page 326 and 327: What are customers willing to pay f
Page 328 and 329: Randomly, continuous up to ±50%Acc
Page 330 and 331: The likelihood for the model is giv
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Page 334 and 335: Table 5-1 Parameter estimates from
Page 336 and 337: Table 6-2 Willingness to pay for 10
Page 338 and 339: Session 12 - Energy for Developing
Page 340 and 341: Risø International Energy Conferen
Page 352 and 353: useful energyend energysecondary en
Page 354 and 355: parts or the means of enforcing war
Page 356 and 357: The development of micro-hydro proj
Page 358 and 359: Table 1. Electric power generation
Page 360 and 361: 5 ReferencesBajgain, S., Shakya, I.
Page 362 and 363: IntroductionElectricity has become
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Page 366 and 367: Hilmand provinces have comparativel
Page 368 and 369: ….. eq. 5LCOE is the net present
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Page 372 and 373: ing down the cost of solar PV modul
Page 374 and 375: 3.3 Serving the rural areas with na
Page 376 and 377: The levelized costs of electricity
Page 378 and 379: Figure 4. Variation in LCOE with si
Page 380 and 381: The analysis reveals that fuel cost
Page 382 and 383: In case of DG, we have looked with
Page 384 and 385: Gross, R., Blyth, W., Heptonstall,
Page 386 and 387: Mode of Transport to Work, Car Owne
Page 388 and 389: power parity (PPP) basis, GDP per c
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Page 396 and 397: where I (·) is the indicator funct
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while that of other means of transp
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into CO 2 . For all oil and oil pro
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impact. In general, income is found
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7 ReferenceAlperovich, G., Deutsch,
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Table 1: Definitions of Variables a
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Session 13 - Energy StorageRisø In
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2 Storage demand and resulting stor
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compressed air storages, demand sit
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Fig. 3: Options for underground sto
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3.5 Geological potential in EuropeF
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Sensitivity on Battery Prices and C
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3.1 Base caseA northern European en
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4 ResultsThe model is run on a comp
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Furthermore, a slight decrease in t
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Night time charging increases with
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Lithuanian Energy Institute, PSE In
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atteries, Compressed Air Energy Sto
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negative net load, can be expected
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25%Pct. of the year20%15%10%5%0.5-0
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800006000040000MWh200000Netload-200
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[4] B. V. Mathiesen and H. Lund, "C
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Compressed Air Energy Storage in Of
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compressed air caverns, corrosion-r
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Figure 3: Distribution of salt depo
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Figure 6: EWEA's 20 year Offshore N
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spinning reserves can be provided b
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7 Discussion and conclusionsThis pa
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Risø DTU is the National Laborator
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