Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

Integrating climate change adaptation in energyplanning and decision-making – Key challengesand opportunitiesAnne Olhoff and Karen Holm Olsen, UNEP Risø Centre, Risø DTU.AbstractEnergy systems are significantly vulnerable to current climate variability and extremeevents. As climate change becomes more pronounced, the risks and vulnerabilities willbe exacerbated.To date, energy sector adaptation issues have received very limited attention. In thispaper, a climate risk management framework is used as the basis for identifying keychallenges and opportunities to enhance the integration of climate change adaptation inenergy planning and decision-making. Given its importance for raising awareness andfor stimulating action by planners and decision-makers, emphasis is placed on reviewingthe current knowledge on risks and vulnerabilities of energy systems and on potentialadaptation options.The paper finds that short and longer term action on climate risk management of energysystems strongly depends on: Strengthening the capacity to model and project climatechange and its impacts at local and regional scales; improving the geographical coverageof risk, vulnerability and adaptation assessments, and the availability of systematic andintegrated assessments; and, providing information and guidance in a form appropriatefor planners and decision makers. Another important area concerns establishingimproved understanding of potential trade-offs and synergies between energy systemadaptation and mitigation options, and adaptation and development prospects in othersectors or areas. Finally, improved knowledge on damage costs, and adaptation costs andbenefits is likely to remove barriers to integration of climate risks and adaptive responsesin energy planning and decision making. Both detailed assessments of the costs andbenefits of integrating adaptation measures and rougher ‘order of magnitude’ estimateswould enhance awareness raising and momentum for action.1 Framing the IssueThe role of energy services for development and economic growth is extensivelydocumented and universally recognized. Energy conversion and end-use is, however,also a major driver of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and global warming. The energysector is consequently a primary target of climate change mitigation efforts. Animpressive volume of peer-reviewed literature studies the role and potential of the energysector for reducing GHG emissions as well as the potential implications of climatechange mitigation policies for the energy sector.The urgency of controlling and reducing GHG emissions cannot be emphasised enough.However, due historic emissions and consequent increased atmospheric concentrationsof GHGs, we are already locked-in to a certain degree of climate change. It is, therefore,central not only to avoid the unmanageable, through mitigation, but also to manage theunavoidable, through adaptation.To date, energy sector adaptation issues have received very limited attention. This isevident in terms of lack of investment and action and through an under-representation ofthe energy sector in peer-reviewed literature on adaptation (Ebinger and Vergara, 2011).The entire energy supply chain is, nonetheless, vulnerable to current climate variabilityand extreme events. To illustrate, the World Bank estimates that climate extremesRisø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 25