Energy Systems and Technologies for the Coming Century ...

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Freitas, M. A. V. and Soito, J. L. S., 2009. Vulnerability to climate change and water management:hydropower generation in Brazil. In: Brebbia, C.A. (Ed.): RIVER BASIN MANAGEMENTV, WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment.Hadley, S. W., D. J. Erickson, et al., 2006. Responses of energy use to climate change: A climatemodeling study. Geophysical Research Letters 33(17).Harrison, G. P., L. C. Cradden, et al., 2008. Preliminary assessment of climate change impacts on theUK onshore wind energy resource. Energy Sources Part a-Recovery Utilization andEnvironmental Effects 30(14-15): 1286-1299.Harrison, G.P, Whittington, W., and Wallace, A.R., 2003. Climate Change Impacts on Financial Riskin Hydropower Projects. IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 18, NO. 4,NOVEMBER 2003.HELIO International, 2009. Climate-proofing energy systems. Unigraphics, Canada.Available atwww.helio-international.org.Hosek, J., P. Musilek, et al., 2011. Forecasting severe ice storms using numerical weather prediction:the March 2010 Newfoundland event. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11(2): 587-595.IEA (International Energy Agency), 2009. World Energy Outlook 2009. IEA, Paris, France.IPCC, 2001. Climate change 2001—the scientific basis. Contribution of Working Group II to the ThirdAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. CambridgeUniversity Press, Oxford.IPCC, 2007a. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Oxford. Available online athttp://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf.IPCC, 2007b: Climate Change 2007: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to the FourthAssessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [B. Metz, O.R.Davidson, P.R. Bosch, R. Dave, L.A. Meyer (eds)], Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.IPCC, 2007c. Climate Change 2007 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of WorkingGroup II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, Oxford.Isaac, M. and D. P. van Vuuren, 2009. Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heatingand air conditioning in the context of climate change. Energy Policy 37(2): 507-521.Karakezi, S., J. Kimani, et al., 2009. Large Scale Hydropower, Renewable Energy and Adaptation toClimate Change: Climate Change and Energy Security in East and Horn of Africa. Nairobi,AFREPEN/FWD Energy, Environment and Development Network for Africa: 84.Kim, U. and J. J. Kaluarachchi, 2009. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Upper BlueNile River Basin, Ethiopia1. Journal of the American Water Resources Association 45(6):1361-1378.Lynch, P., R. McGrath, P. Nolan, T. Semmler, and S. Wang, 2006. Ireland’s changing wind resource:An atlas of future Irish wind climatology. From European Conference on Impacts of ClimateChange on Renewable Energy Source, Iceland, June 2006.Madani, K. and J. R. Lund, 2010. Estimated impacts of climate warming on California's high-elevationhydropower. Climatic Change 102(3-4): 521-538.Mamouda, M. N. A., 2009. Policy Paper on Energy, Climate Change and Poverty Alleviation.Roskilde, Global Network on Sustainable Energy (GNESD): 10.Marsh, N. and H. Svensmark, 2003. Solar influence on Earth's climate. Space Science Reviews 107(1-2): 317-325.Mauser, W., and Bach, H., 2009. PROMET – Large scale distributed hydrological modelling to studythe impact of climate change on the water flows of mountain watersheds. Journal ofHydrology 376 (2009) 362–377, Elsevier.Mideksa, T. K. and S. Kallbekken, 2010. The impact of climate change on the electricity market: Areview. Energy Policy 38(7): 3579-3585.Minville, M., Brissette, F., Krau, S., and R. Leconte, 2009. Adaptation to Climate Change in theManagement of a Canadian Water-Resources System Exploited for Hydropower. WaterResource Management (2009), 23:2965–2986Ozkul, S., 2009. Assessment of climate change effects in Aegean river basins: the case of Gediz andBuyuk Menderes Basins. Climatic Change, Volume: 97, Issue: 1-2, Pages: 253-283Pryor, S. C. and R. J. Barthelmie, 2010. Climate change impacts on wind energy: A review Renewable& Sustainable Energy Reviews 14(1): 430-437.Pryor, S.C., Barthelmie, R.J., Kjellstrom, E., Mann, J., 2005. Potential climate change impacts on windenergy resources in northern Europe. Geophysical Research Abstracts 7, 01544.Raje, D. and P. P. Mujumdar, 2010. Reservoir performance under uncertainty in hydrologic impacts ofclimate change Advances in Water Resources 33(3): 312-326.Ram, B., 2009. An integrated risk framework for gigawatt-scale deployments of renewable energy: TheU.S. wind energy case. NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory), Colorado, USA.Richels, R.G., Tol, R.S.J. and Yohe, G.W., 2008. Future scenarios for emissions need continualadjustment. Nature, Vol. 453, p. 155Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 36
Sailor, D.J., Smith, M., Hart, M., 2008. Climate change implications for wind power resources in theNorthwest United States. Renewable Energy; Journal Volume: 33; Journal Issue: 11; OtherInformation: Elsevier Ltd.Singh, C. R., J. R. Thompson, et al., 2010. Modelling the impact of prescribed global warming onrunoff from headwater catchments of the Irrawaddy River and their implications for the waterlevel regime of Loktak Lake, northeast India. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 14(9):1745-1765.Smith, P. and J. E. Olesen, 2010. Synergies between the mitigation of, and adaptation to, climatechange in agriculture. Journal of Agricultural Science 148: 543-552.Sood, A. and Durante, F., 2006. The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the wind conditionsover the North Sea. In: European Conference on Impacts of Climate Change on RenewableEnergy Sources, Iceland, June.Su, F. G. and Z. H. Xie, 2003. A model for assessing effects of climate change on runoff in China.Progress in Natural Science 13(9): 701-707.van Rheenen, N.T., Palmer, R.N., and Hahn, M.A., 2003. Evaluating potential climate change impactson water resources systems operations: case studies of Portland, Oregon and Central Valley,California. Water Resources Update124, 35–50.Wang, X. M., D. Chen, et al., 2010. Assessment of climate change impact on residential buildingheating and cooling energy requirement in Australia. Building and Environment 45(7): 1663-1682.Wilbanks, T. J., V. Bhatt, et al., 2008. Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in theUnited States. U.S. Climate Change Science Program: 96.Willows, R. I., and R. K. Connell (Eds.), 2003. Climate adaptation: Risk, uncertainty and decisionmaking.UKCIP Technical Report. United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme, Oxford.Available at www.ukcip.org.uk/risk/.World Bank, 2010a. World development report. Development and climate change. The World Bank,Washington DC.World Bank, 2010b. The costs to developing countries of adapting to climate change. New methods andestimates. The Global Report of the Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change Study,Consultation Draft. The World Bank, Washington DC.World Bank, 2010c. Assessment of the impacts of climate change on mountain hydrology. Developmentof a Methodology through a Case Study in Peru. LCSEG, Sustainable DevelopmentDepartment, Latin America and Caribbean Region, The World Bank, Washington DC.World Bank, 2010d. Peru: Overcoming barriers to hydropower. Energy Cluster, SustainableDevelopment Department, Latin America and Caribbean Region, The World Bank,Washington DC.Risø International Energy Conference 2011 Proceedings Page 37
Page 1 and 2: Energy Systems and Technologies for
Page 3 and 4: ContentsSessions overview 1Programm
Page 5 and 6: sessions overview08:00-09:00Coffee
Page 7 and 8: 11:00 - 12:30 session 6A - Bioenerg
Page 9 and 10: ContactSustainable Energy, Technica
Page 11 and 12: Penetration of new energy technolog
Page 13 and 14: how decisions are made and by whom
Page 15 and 16: (9) is the logaritimic expansion of
Page 17 and 18: (16)we may finally write Eq(14) in
Page 19 and 20: Table 1: Fast track cases for new r
Page 21 and 22: Peterka V. Macrodynamics of technol
Page 23 and 24: Growth in clean and reliable energy
Page 25 and 26: Conclusion - an ambitious vision an
Page 27 and 28: "Spurring investments in renewable
Page 29 and 30: Integrating climate change adaptati
Page 31 and 32: transport, and finance. Energy prov
Page 33 and 34: northern South America, the Caribbe
Page 35 and 36: Table 1: Energy system adaptation s
Page 37 and 38: More generally, a number of no- or
Page 39: 6 ReferencesADB, 2005. Climate proo
Page 43 and 44: Factors affecting stakeholder perce
Page 45 and 46: Another study conducted in Japan wa
Page 47 and 48: 4 The effect of information on stak
Page 49 and 50: Furthermore, communication to stake
Page 51 and 52: Shackley S, McLachlan C, Gough C (2
Page 53 and 54: Figure 1: Potential CO 2 storage si
Page 55 and 56: The Upper Jurassic - Lower Cretaceo
Page 57 and 58: The majority of the individual stru
Page 59 and 60: Development. Project no. ENK6-CT-19
Page 61 and 62: Section 5 summarises the key issue
Page 63 and 64: Table 1. Efficiencies for new large
Page 65 and 66: In addition, district heating syste
Page 67 and 68: 6.4 Model results from EFDA-TIMESIn
Page 69 and 70: Maisonnier, D., et al. (2007), Powe
Page 71 and 72: 1Efficiency and effectiveness of pr
Page 73 and 74: 3Stromerzeugung [TWh/a]250200150100
Page 75 and 76: 54 Country-specific Lessons learned
Page 77 and 78: 7100%90%80%quota fullfilment (%)70%
Page 79 and 80: [5] Haas R., et al: Efficiency and
Page 81 and 82: The development and diffusion of re
Page 83 and 84: a. Offshore wind in DenmarkDenmark
Page 85 and 86: applicants are invited to submit a
Page 87 and 88: nies that provide upstream and down
Page 89 and 90: for both technology users and produ
Page 91 and 92:
Trade Disputes over Renewable Energ
Page 93 and 94:
treatment to imported renewable ene
Page 95 and 96:
In Canada, the federal government i
Page 97 and 98:
grid access, subsidies and land off
Page 99 and 100:
In 2010, China’s total wind insta
Page 101 and 102:
Source: Renewables 2010 Global Stat
Page 103 and 104:
Source: REN 21, Renewables 2010 Glo
Page 105 and 106:
Source: adapted from REN21, 2010It
Page 107 and 108:
their precise scope and nature diff
Page 109 and 110:
60 daysBy 2 nd DSBmeetingConsultati
Page 111 and 112:
discriminatory manner on domestic a
Page 113 and 114:
the European Union, the North Ameri
Page 115:
ended. China lost this case because
Page 118 and 119:
As most countries in the world are
Page 120 and 121:
Session 3A - Energy SystemsRisø In
Page 122 and 123:
1 IntroductionWith the introduction
Page 124 and 125:
occur. This is an undesirably burea
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This curve could be used as a new t
Page 128 and 129:
ut for the total consumption, and i
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This gives the LBR an opportunity t
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concludes that the subsurface conta
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to constrain the evaluation. In add
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Fig. 2 SW-NE trending seismic profi
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Fig. 5. Petrophysical evaluation of
Page 140 and 141:
ConclusionsThe Danish subsurface co
Page 142 and 143:
Performance of Space Heating in aMo
Page 144 and 145:
[5],[10],[11],[16],[18],[20],[26].
Page 146 and 147:
2/3 Sun1 Coal1/3 ElPower plantHP1 H
Page 148 and 149:
25002000Surplus(min(wind,prod-cons)
Page 150 and 151:
160CO 2 emission per unit heat prod
Page 152 and 153:
The calculations have been based on
Page 154 and 155:
Session 3B - smart gridsRisø Inter
Page 156 and 157:
2 Myopic Investments2.1 The Balmore
Page 158 and 159:
Moreover, this model is formulated
Page 160 and 161:
Reducing Electricity Demand Peaks b
Page 162 and 163:
3 Event Driven Scheduling Algorithm
Page 164 and 165:
5 Mapping Teletraffic Theory to Ene
Page 166 and 167:
6.2 Results and Performance Metrics
Page 168 and 169:
Energy Efficient Refrigeration and
Page 170 and 171:
Virtual Power PlantAggregatorSuperm
Page 172 and 173:
C p,rC p,fT rT fW cφ sT a(UA) raHe
Page 174 and 175:
Total PowerP.G. #1P.G. #2C.R. #1201
Page 176 and 177:
the availability payment.Simulation
Page 178 and 179:
The constraint in Eq. (16) has the
Page 180 and 181:
The FlexControl concept - a vision,
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can react on requests for power reg
Page 184 and 185:
3 ControlThe concept is based solel
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one hour to the next - correspondin
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4 ProtectionThe protection of the p
Page 190 and 191:
Session 4 - Efficiency Improvements
Page 192 and 193:
the product portfolio point of view
Page 194 and 195:
Figure 4: Principle flow sheet of t
Page 196 and 197:
process information needed are seld
Page 198 and 199:
AIRFINE®(Reference)MEROS®Ca(OH)2M
Page 200 and 201:
4 Conclusion & DiscussionThe Eco-Ca
Page 202 and 203:
1 Energy policy and EU directivesTh
Page 204 and 205:
iomass CHP, heat pumps, electric bo
Page 206 and 207:
Fig. 1: How to supply a growing hea
Page 208 and 209:
Session 5A - Wind Energy IRisø Int
Page 210 and 211:
The average cumulative growth rate
Page 212 and 213:
turbines is expected to create a st
Page 214 and 215:
O&MGridWindturbineSubstructureFigur
Page 216 and 217:
Another idea is to harvest energy f
Page 218 and 219:
9. Shimon Awerbuch, Determining the
Page 220 and 221:
engaged in wind energy assessment,
Page 222 and 223:
treated in such a way to make them
Page 224 and 225:
Figure 5: Map showing the estimated
Page 226 and 227:
Figure 9: The annual mean power den
Page 228 and 229:
mix is required. For example diurna
Page 230 and 231:
Session 5B - Wind Energy IIRisø In
Page 232 and 233:
TABLE ISOME OF THE WIND TURBINE MAN
Page 234 and 235:
China, has prompted all parties, in
Page 236 and 237:
to the high shaft speed. Furthermor
Page 238 and 239:
Superconductors must be kept cold b
Page 240 and 241:
an annual increase in demand of 6%,
Page 242 and 243:
Improved High Temperature Supercond
Page 244 and 245:
our study to a single set of deposi
Page 246 and 247:
3.2 Yttrium-enriched YBCO thin film
Page 248 and 249:
Fig. 5. AC-susceptibility dependenc
Page 250 and 251:
The j C (B) dependence at 50 K for
Page 252 and 253:
Session 6A - Bioenergy IRisø Inter
Page 254 and 255:
The European politicians are faced
Page 256 and 257:
The fast growing demand for biomass
Page 258 and 259:
Figure 2: Avedøre Power Plant in C
Page 260 and 261:
Figure 5: Concept for a sustainable
Page 262 and 263:
The role of biomass and CCS in Chin
Page 264 and 265:
2.2.1 CCS Potential for ChinaCCS is
Page 266 and 267:
80%70%60%China's share ofglobal CO
Page 268 and 269:
In general, if the CCS technology d
Page 270 and 271:
with high implementation of CCS Chi
Page 272 and 273:
The European Biofuels Policy: from
Page 274 and 275:
aimed to promote agriculture-based
Page 276 and 277:
(EC, 2009b), and internationally vi
Page 278 and 279:
Session 6B - Bio Energy IIRisø Int
Page 280 and 281:
The commercial scale production of
Page 282 and 283:
the production process parameters,
Page 284 and 285:
NutrientWaterAlgal cultureproductio
Page 286 and 287:
Schenk, P.M., Thomas-Hall, S.R., St
Page 288 and 289:
Liquid biofuels from blue biomassZs
Page 290 and 291:
Even though final ethanol yields we
Page 292 and 293:
Integrated Gasification SOFC Plant
Page 294 and 295:
2.1 Modelling of SOFCThe SOFC model
Page 296 and 297:
where g 0 , R an T are the specific
Page 298 and 299:
hand side y-axis corresponds to eff
Page 300 and 301:
The moister content for these three
Page 302 and 303:
Use of Methanation for Optimization
Page 304 and 305:
power production from utilizing the
Page 306 and 307:
2.1 Model DescriptionThe developed
Page 308 and 309:
Figure 3: Flow sheet of methanation
Page 310 and 311:
efficiency and turbine inlet temper
Page 312 and 313:
[14] DNA - A Thermal Energy System
Page 314 and 315:
On the effectiveness of standards v
Page 316 and 317:
educing new car emissions to 120 g
Page 318 and 319:
In addition energy consumption E an
Page 320 and 321:
coefficient γ for the impact of fu
Page 322 and 323:
400200Change in energy (PJ)01980 19
Page 324 and 325:
Figure 9 depict scenarios for the f
Page 326 and 327:
What are customers willing to pay f
Page 328 and 329:
Randomly, continuous up to ±50%Acc
Page 330 and 331:
The likelihood for the model is giv
Page 332 and 333:
eally means that this factor and no
Page 334 and 335:
Table 5-1 Parameter estimates from
Page 336 and 337:
Table 6-2 Willingness to pay for 10
Page 338 and 339:
Session 12 - Energy for Developing
Page 340 and 341:
Risø International Energy Conferen
Page 342 and 343:
Page 344 and 345:
Page 346 and 347:
Page 348 and 349:
Page 350 and 351:
existing renewable energy technolog
Page 352 and 353:
useful energyend energysecondary en
Page 354 and 355:
parts or the means of enforcing war
Page 356 and 357:
The development of micro-hydro proj
Page 358 and 359:
Table 1. Electric power generation
Page 360 and 361:
5 ReferencesBajgain, S., Shakya, I.
Page 362 and 363:
IntroductionElectricity has become
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of 2008, 43.6% of the total populat
Page 366 and 367:
Hilmand provinces have comparativel
Page 368 and 369:
….. eq. 5LCOE is the net present
Page 370 and 371:
case of Nepal, it is 5% (Trading ec
Page 372 and 373:
ing down the cost of solar PV modul
Page 374 and 375:
3.3 Serving the rural areas with na
Page 376 and 377:
The levelized costs of electricity
Page 378 and 379:
Figure 4. Variation in LCOE with si
Page 380 and 381:
The analysis reveals that fuel cost
Page 382 and 383:
In case of DG, we have looked with
Page 384 and 385:
Gross, R., Blyth, W., Heptonstall,
Page 386 and 387:
Mode of Transport to Work, Car Owne
Page 388 and 389:
power parity (PPP) basis, GDP per c
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83,385 to 109,108 while the number
Page 392 and 393:
other purposes so that reduced fare
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emissions studies is that they were
Page 396 and 397:
where I (·) is the indicator funct
Page 398 and 399:
increases, individuals acquire more
Page 400 and 401:
while that of other means of transp
Page 402 and 403:
into CO 2 . For all oil and oil pro
Page 404 and 405:
impact. In general, income is found
Page 406 and 407:
7 ReferenceAlperovich, G., Deutsch,
Page 408 and 409:
Table 1: Definitions of Variables a
Page 410 and 411:
Session 13 - Energy StorageRisø In
Page 412 and 413:
2 Storage demand and resulting stor
Page 414 and 415:
compressed air storages, demand sit
Page 416 and 417:
Fig. 3: Options for underground sto
Page 418 and 419:
3.5 Geological potential in EuropeF
Page 420 and 421:
Sensitivity on Battery Prices and C
Page 422 and 423:
3.1 Base caseA northern European en
Page 424 and 425:
4 ResultsThe model is run on a comp
Page 426 and 427:
Furthermore, a slight decrease in t
Page 428 and 429:
Night time charging increases with
Page 430 and 431:
Lithuanian Energy Institute, PSE In
Page 432 and 433:
atteries, Compressed Air Energy Sto
Page 434 and 435:
negative net load, can be expected
Page 436 and 437:
25%Pct. of the year20%15%10%5%0.5-0
Page 438 and 439:
800006000040000MWh200000Netload-200
Page 440 and 441:
[4] B. V. Mathiesen and H. Lund, "C
Page 442 and 443:
Compressed Air Energy Storage in Of
Page 444 and 445:
compressed air caverns, corrosion-r
Page 446 and 447:
Figure 3: Distribution of salt depo
Page 448 and 449:
Figure 6: EWEA's 20 year Offshore N
Page 450 and 451:
spinning reserves can be provided b
Page 452 and 453:
7 Discussion and conclusionsThis pa
Page 454:
Risø DTU is the National Laborator
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